Quote from fenn68 on December 19, 2023, 3:33 am

Although want to upgrade from Cronenworth at 1B who as 18th out of 24 for qualified 1B in 2023 based on WAR (and last in HR with 10) … not locked into power being the main criteria.

TEX won it all with Lowe at 1B (played 161 games) and he hit only 17 HR yet was 11th in WAR. The “median” HR level for qualified 1B is only 23. Only 4 hit more than 30 HR. I would look more toward maximizing WAR and if that comes with power … great … but reality in 2024 not seeing any great options within the budget.

More important is that the Padres need to add 3 starters to the 9 man line-up (CF-LF-DH) and a very limited budget … if the core of Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts become the heart of the offense … and Campusano, Kim, and Cronenworth are solid support pieces … just need those other three to approach maybe a 1-2 WAR … not sure they can actually find (within budget) players to achieve that target … so need a bit of luck and have to gamble on a prospect or two.

It is a mix and match game of the alternatives available for all three starters to net the maximum productivity for the group of three. Can’t afford to lock into any one profile or any one position.

Quote from dusty on December 19, 2023, 5:21 am

If Preller does look at a one year option for first base, and is looking to pay a discount and buy run production, he could bring in Carlos Santana. While not sparkly, last season he accounted for 141 runs (Runs plus RBI minus Home Runs) while getting on base at a .318 clip. Baseball reference has the numbers coming down to 112 runs produced and a 315 clip. But that projection and stat line would certainly be an improvement of what we had last year for probably at most what we paid last season plus the money we ate this season for Carpenter and Cruz.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 19, 2023, 5:54 am

Quote from dusty on December 19, 2023, 5:21 am

If Preller does look at a one year option for first base, and is looking to pay a discount and buy run production, he could bring in Carlos Santana. While not sparkly, last season he accounted for 141 runs (Runs plus RBI minus Home Runs) while getting on base at a .318 clip. Baseball reference has the numbers coming down to 112 runs produced and a 315 clip. But that projection and stat line would certainly be an improvement of what we had last year for probably at most what we paid last season plus the money we ate this season for Carpenter and Cruz.

 

 

Santana (projected at 1 year / $7MM) might be a legit target … but maybe more as the DH (back—up) 1B since he not noted for his defense.

Until the Padres get rid of one of Cronenworth - Kim - Bogaerts - Machado (or make one an OF) the INF is set and more likely they put the effort (and money) into the OF.

Would they be happy with Kiermaier (CF) … Profar (LF) … Santana (DH) for the $25MM while keeping the INF the same (maybe reset who is where)? Then throw in a league minimum body for the 13th position player (also an open slot) while holding with the current pitching? Let Marsee and Pauley get more time to develop in the minors.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 19, 2023, 6:52 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 19, 2023, 3:33 am

Although want to upgrade from Cronenworth at 1B who as 18th out of 24 for qualified 1B in 2023 based on WAR (and last in HR with 10) … not locked into power being the main criteria.

TEX won it all with Lowe at 1B (played 161 games) and he hit only 17 HR yet was 11th in WAR. The “median” HR level for qualified 1B is only 23. Only 4 hit more than 30 HR. I would look more toward maximizing WAR and if that comes with power … great … but reality in 2024 not seeing any great options within the budget.

You are correct, they only got 17 HRs from their 1B, but they were also 4th in MLB in HRs and got above average HR production from SS and 2B, which SD will not get this season. So if you can get the power from other spots, you can live with a lack of power from 1B. We dont have that personnel.

The simply fact is that SD was 13th in HRs last season, and we just lost 48 (23%) of those HRs in one trade. And while I am not totally engrossed in the HR and really do like the speed and stolen base game (we dont have that either), fact is that you do need to have some power on the team. And that traditionally comes from 5 spots, LF, RF, 3B, 1B, and DH. Of those 5 spots we have two covered. So unless we all of the sudden become a running team like the DBacks last season, we do need to find a source or two of power.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 19, 2023, 7:11 am

Quote from JasonE135 on December 18, 2023, 10:05 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on December 18, 2023, 5:55 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on December 18, 2023, 5:34 pm

 

"A LHH with a .400 OBP who can steal bases at 80% sounds like the kind of leadoff hitter i love." Same. "His potential bat is what I like for a Cfer, just not a LFer.

.400 OBP, great bat, steals bases and below average power? That sounds remarkably like Tony Gwynn, the greatest RF in Padres history. Why didn't he play CF? Defense. Great RF, not great CF.

"Evaluators who saw Marsee in the spring believe he's more likely ticketed for a corner." It's not me saying these things, it's scouts. If Marsee can handle CF at even an average level, I think he should play there. I just don't want to have to count on Marsee as a CF. If he can play CF, awesome! If he can't, he could still be quite valuable in LF, which is where scouts think he will end up. A .400 OBP is valuable at any position.

If Marsee can play CF effectively and Pauley can play 1B and hit 30-HR I will have an O because I will be so happy. What if they can't? What if Marsee can only play LF(even money) and Pauley only hits 15-20 HR per season? They still have value. Again, don't try to force a square peg into a round hole. If it fits, great! If it doesn't...move it to another hole(position).

A couple of issues with your comparison of Marsee to Gwynn.

One, you cant compare anybody to Gwynn.

Two, Gwynn was RF, not LF. You say not to put a square peg in a round hole. In my opinion that is what you are doing with a LFer that does not hit for power. LF is a power spot, and apparently we will just have to disagree on that.

 

So all corner OF need power and CFs don't? I guess we shouldn't put Tatis in CF. Square peg. Sure he has blazing speed, gold glove and a cannon arm, but CF is where you put your .400 OPS guys, not power hitters.

The Padres currently have a total of 2 POWER HITTERS on the roster, Machado and Tatis. MAYBE Campusano. The Padres don't have enough power hitters right now to fill 1B, 3B, LF, RF, DH and C, the power hitter positions. That means the Padres need 3 or 4 MORE power hitters. I don't see that happening. Some of those positions are going to be filled with non-power hitters. LF almost certainly will. Who else will play there? Merrill, Marsee, Azocar, Zavala? None of those guys have power. So, can none of them play LF? Do we need 20-40 HR free agents to play LF, 1B, DH and maybe Catcher too, or can Marsee POSSIBLY work in LF?

You place players where you get the best team defense. Again, if Marsee can handle CF, great! If not, he still has value in LF.

For the most part, yes CFers do not need power. That is a defense first position, and if you happen to get power production from that spot, its a bonus (ex Trout or yes Tatis).

And you are correct, we should NOT put Tatis in CF. He is the perfect, prototypical RFer, speed, power, BA/OBP, defense, and RH so his glove is closer to the line. Leave him there for the next 10 years.

While I put C in the same situation as CF; defense first and power is a bonus, I agree that we need 3 more power hitters, LF, 1B, and DH.

With the money crunch that we are in, its very possible that we will not be able to fill all three spots, and then if that is the case, then Marsee is a stop gap, until we can get a power hitting LFer. Although I will be honest, I would prefer that SD has Profar play LF over Marsee this season, and lets see how he develops instead of rushing him.

Plus, I dont think it was coincidence that September winning streak occurred after Profar rejoined the team.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 19, 2023, 7:16 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 19, 2023, 5:54 am

 

Would they be happy with Kiermaier (CF) … Profar (LF) … Santana (DH) for the $25MM while keeping the INF the same (maybe reset who is where)? Then throw in a league minimum body for the 13th position player (also an open slot) while holding with the current pitching? Let Marsee and Pauley get more time to develop in the minors.

I think that those 3 additions would be an acceptable addition considering everything that has happened this offseason. Kiermaier bats L, and Profar and Santana are SH, helping to balance out the line up.

The OF defense would be above average, the INF defense would be incredible, and while there is going to be a lack of power, hopefully we become a little more "clucth" and win some close games this season.

Quote from fenn68 on December 19, 2023, 7:23 am

Maybe they seek that power by adding at DH and/or LF ... two slots with no incumbents? Getting major power out of CF is just not going to happen (unless they do the unthinkable and sign Bellinger).

For me addressing the OF/DH is more critical than upgrading other positions / pitchers.

Having Tatis and Azocar covering the entire OF for 162 games is not a recipe for winning ... neither is just throwing out a body to stand in LF/CF and contribute below average performance.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 19, 2023, 8:20 am

As others have mentioned, this is going to be an awkward season.

We still have some high powered stars on this team, so its not a true tear down. But due to an unfortunate ownership change, a bizarre situation with the TV deal, we know have some money issues that came a little sooner that thought. And while we have some interesting prospects on the way, the gap of them being ready and being needed is not matching up at this point. Off by a half of a season or so.

I think the best that we can hope for this season is some intriguing additions to start the season, and see how scrappy we can be until the trade deadline. Then evaluate whether they should sell high on short term solutions, or make a couple of strategic buys at the deadline, and hope for some playoff magic.

Quote from dusty on December 19, 2023, 8:30 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 19, 2023, 5:54 am

Quote from dusty on December 19, 2023, 5:21 am

If Preller does look at a one year option for first base, and is looking to pay a discount and buy run production, he could bring in Carlos Santana. While not sparkly, last season he accounted for 141 runs (Runs plus RBI minus Home Runs) while getting on base at a .318 clip. Baseball reference has the numbers coming down to 112 runs produced and a 315 clip. But that projection and stat line would certainly be an improvement of what we had last year for probably at most what we paid last season plus the money we ate this season for Carpenter and Cruz.

 

 

Santana (projected at 1 year / $7MM) might be a legit target … but maybe more as the DH (back—up) 1B since he not noted for his defense.

Until the Padres get rid of one of Cronenworth - Kim - Bogaerts - Machado (or make one an OF) the INF is set and more likely they put the effort (and money) into the OF.

Would they be happy with Kiermaier (CF) … Profar (LF) … Santana (DH) for the $25MM while keeping the INF the same (maybe reset who is where)? Then throw in a league minimum body for the 13th position player (also an open slot) while holding with the current pitching? Let Marsee and Pauley get more time to develop in the minors.

Quote from fenn68 on December 19, 2023, 5:54 am

Quote from dusty on December 19, 2023, 5:21 am

If Preller does look at a one year option for first base, and is looking to pay a discount and buy run production, he could bring in Carlos Santana. While not sparkly, last season he accounted for 141 runs (Runs plus RBI minus Home Runs) while getting on base at a .318 clip. Baseball reference has the numbers coming down to 112 runs produced and a 315 clip. But that projection and stat line would certainly be an improvement of what we had last year for probably at most what we paid last season plus the money we ate this season for Carpenter and Cruz.

 

 

Santana (projected at 1 year / $7MM) might be a legit target … but maybe more as the DH (back—up) 1B since he not noted for his defense.

Until the Padres get rid of one of Cronenworth - Kim - Bogaerts - Machado (or make one an OF) the INF is set and more likely they put the effort (and money) into the OF.

Would they be happy with Kiermaier (CF) … Profar (LF) … Santana (DH) for the $25MM while keeping the INF the same (maybe reset who is where)? Then throw in a league minimum body for the 13th position player (also an open slot) while holding with the current pitching? Let Marsee and Pauley get more time to develop in the minors.

Yes and no. I think they would like to go with either a regular rotation to give everyone regular days off in the field while still having their bat in the lineup. So really it depends on who they want to be that super utility (Cronenworth or Kim or the free agent addition). Could also use Campy at first base too on days not catching in addition to time at DH. I really would be more than ok with Profar Kermaier and Santana at about 20-22 mil and then someone like Bauer on a prove it deal with good behavior. Just not sure what the plan would be for relievers unless they plan on letting the guys they have battle it out. Only way Marsee or Pauley is in the majors in my opinion is to get regular playing time but they need to sink or swim. Maybe start off the year in the majors and give them a solid 15-20 games worth of starts.