Quote from TatisJr on December 29, 2019, 7:41 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2019, 7:26 pm

Quote from TatisJr on December 29, 2019, 7:14 pm

To be fair the Astros didn’t make just one trade. They made 3, dealing for Cole, Verlander and Greinke.

I’m not sure what this has to do with my point?

Especially considering they were years apart.

But my point wasn’t about winning it all...it was about trading multiple prospects for an Ace.

If anything this even furthers my point as trading for Cole was another great example.

Maybe an even better one cause Cole wasn’t making $28 mil at the time.

He was almost in the exact position at the time of his trade to Houston as Clevinger is now.

 

 

No my point was for Jason saying they were one piece away. They really built the rotation over the years with 3 big trades.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 29, 2019, 8:06 pm

Cole, Verlander and Grienke were all at all time LOW value when the Astros traded for them.

Verlander was considered BY EVERYONE IN BASEBALL as being DONE. He was gotten at a horrifically low price. Not one top prospect. The Astros made him what he is.

Cole was a huge prospect who had 1 or 2 great years then fell over a cliff and became average. Again, no true top prospects changed hands. He was okay, the Astros made him great.

Grienke was just a salary dump. He was pitching well, but he wasn’t dominating. He wasn’t pitching near the level of the highest paid pitcher in baseball(as he was at the time, per AAV) And he didn’t dominate in the playoffs when they really needed him to. He was David Price lite. And Price can be gotten for free right now. No prospects.

The Astros struck when these pitchers value was at the absolute lowest. It seems people here want to do it the opposite way. Buy when the price is absolutely as high as it can get, right in the middle of a bidding war. Do we expect his ERA to drop by over a run like both Verlander’s and Cole’s did? It won’t. Maybe the Astros can trade for Lamet with a halfway decent prospect or 2 and turn him into a CY Young award winner. What they won’t do is trade multiple top prospects for Clevinger.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 29, 2019, 8:14 pm

https://www.mlb.com/news/2014-top-100-mlb-prospects-list-c301609478

 

2014 top 100 prospects... Look at #100 the dude we just signed out of Japan

 

BUT the reason I am posting this list is all them top 100 PITCHING prospects.. you know like Gore/Patino/etc... etc... Look at those top P in the top ten.. Oh boy Walker what an ACE, hell #11 Noah is not even an ACE more like a very solid #2/3 with upside to be better.. Gray? hell FRIED was ours and he is solid but hardly a TOR. I mean is there ONE TOR in that list?,,, NO... prospects are just that prospects--

As far as how Nationals/Astros/ LAD etc were built -- mostly by trades and FA with a handful of home grown dudes..

Nats - Only Strasburg was homegrown out of SP

NATS

Free Agents 14.5 WAR (4th in MLB)

Draft 13.8 WAR (10th)

Trades 9.7 WAR (13th)

Int'l FA 8 WAR (4th)

Other -0.4 WAR (26th)

 

RED SOX 2018

Trades 19,8 WAR (8th)

FA 14,1 WAR (2nd)

Draft 17,9 WAR (3rd)

Intl FA 3,7 (11th)

Other 1,6 (18th)

 

2017 Astros only had 6 drafted players (Bregman, Correa,Fisher,Keuchel, McCullers, Springer) and 2 Int'l FA (Altuve/Guriel)  on their WS championship team

 

2020 Pads are projected to have via trade (Tatis Jr/Margot/Naylor/Paddack/Castillo/Mejia/Perdomo) you can argue we developed these guys but truth is they were not drafted or J2 signings but rather targeted on trades by AJP..

So homegrown Drafted or J2 signings.. Lamet/Hedges/Munoz/Lucchesi/Quntrill/Baez/Cordero

My point is WE ARE WAY HEAVY on Prospects/development in our roster (HOMEGROWN or acquired in TRADES) they still came up thru the ranks of the Padres system--- Whereas the past 3 champions have had MAYBE 6 to 8 such players on their 25/26 man roster.. we are projected to have FOURTEEN such players-- if anything we are relying too much on HOMEGROWN talent and not balanced enough with other resources-- in any case if we study every team that has won the WS (I aint comparing ourselves to the LAD cause they aint won anything)... over the last decade-- you will find 3-5 trades they made shipping out multiple top specs for ONE or TWO or more pieces-- along with a few BIG FA splashes ---So we got the FA splash done (Hosmer/Pomz/ Machado)... we more certainly have the homegrown stuff going on.. Where we are lacking but starting to "convert" some chips for MLB talent is on the trade market-- +Davies + Pham a solid start-- 2-3 more solid pieces should equate to WINDOW WIDE OPEN!...and with what seems like an endless farm to back it for a while

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 29, 2019, 8:20 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on December 29, 2019, 8:06 pm

Cole, Verlander and Grienke were all at all time LOW value when the Astros traded for them.

Verlander was considered BY EVERYONE IN BASEBALL as being DONE. He was gotten at a horrifically low price. Not one top prospect. The Astros made him what he is.

Cole was a huge prospect who had 1 or 2 great years then fell over a cliff and became average. Again, no true top prospects changed hands. He was okay, the Astros made him great.

Grienke was just a salary dump. He was pitching well, but he wasn’t dominating. He wasn’t pitching near the level of the highest paid pitcher in baseball(as he was at the time, per AAV) And he didn’t dominate in the playoffs when they really needed him to. He was David Price lite. And Price can be gotten for free right now. No prospects.

The Astros struck when these pitchers value was at the absolute lowest. It seems people here want to do it the opposite way. Buy when the price is absolutely as high as it can get, right in the middle of a bidding war. Do we expect his ERA to drop by over a run like both Verlander’s and Cole’s did? It won’t. Maybe the Astros can trade for Lamet with a halfway decent prospect or 2 and turn him into a CY Young award winner. What they won’t do is trade multiple top prospects for Clevinger.

Nah-- I am all in on PRICE and ARCHER as BUY LOW Pitchers--... By the way Cole didnt have 3 yrs of control left -- Clevinger does-- so its like going after Buehler man-- guys like that dont usually are made available-- they are Unicorns-- go get them..

 

Quote from TatisJr on December 29, 2019, 8:39 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on December 29, 2019, 8:06 pm

Cole, Verlander and Grienke were all at all time LOW value when the Astros traded for them.

Verlander was considered BY EVERYONE IN BASEBALL as being DONE. He was gotten at a horrifically low price. Not one top prospect. The Astros made him what he is.

Cole was a huge prospect who had 1 or 2 great years then fell over a cliff and became average. Again, no true top prospects changed hands. He was okay, the Astros made him great.

Grienke was just a salary dump. He was pitching well, but he wasn’t dominating. He wasn’t pitching near the level of the highest paid pitcher in baseball(as he was at the time, per AAV) And he didn’t dominate in the playoffs when they really needed him to. He was David Price lite. And Price can be gotten for free right now. No prospects.

The Astros struck when these pitchers value was at the absolute lowest. It seems people here want to do it the opposite way. Buy when the price is absolutely as high as it can get, right in the middle of a bidding war. Do we expect his ERA to drop by over a run like both Verlander’s and Cole’s did? It won’t. Maybe the Astros can trade for Lamet with a halfway decent prospect or 2 and turn him into a CY Young award winner. What they won’t do is trade multiple top prospects for Clevinger.

Ok There’s a lot of factual inaccuracies with this post. Cole was already an All Star pitcher and was highly sought after when Pitt made him available. Joe Musgrove who was dealt for Cole as part of a 4 player package was the number 32 prospect overall when he graduated and Colin Moran was considered a future starting 3rd baseman. Astros fans were very upset about dealing Musgrove at the time of the trade. It would be like the Padres trading Patino after he made 25 starts in the bigs.

Greinke wasn’t just a salary dump. The Astros gave 4 prospects including 1 top 100 prospect in Beer. So no he wasn’t given away for free.

Verlander had won 16 games and had a 3.04 ERA the season he was traded so I doubt the Astros parted with multiple prospects to acquire a guy they thought was done.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2019, 8:51 pm

Yeah I stopped reading at “The Astros made Verlander what he is today”.

 

Quote from JasonE135 on December 29, 2019, 8:57 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 29, 2019, 8:14 pm

https://www.mlb.com/news/2014-top-100-mlb-prospects-list-c301609478

 

2014 top 100 prospects... Look at #100 the dude we just signed out of Japan

 

BUT the reason I am posting this list is all them top 100 PITCHING prospects.. you know like Gore/Patino/etc... etc... Look at those top P in the top ten.. Oh boy Walker what an ACE, hell #11 Noah is not even an ACE more like a very solid #2/3 with upside to be better.. Gray? hell FRIED was ours and he is solid but hardly a TOR. I mean is there ONE TOR in that list?,,, NO... prospects are just that prospects--

As far as how Nationals/Astros/ LAD etc were built -- mostly by trades and FA with a handful of home grown dudes..

Nats - Only Strasburg was homegrown out of SP

NATS

Free Agents 14.5 WAR (4th in MLB)

Draft 13.8 WAR (10th)

Trades 9.7 WAR (13th)

Int'l FA 8 WAR (4th)

Other -0.4 WAR (26th)

 

RED SOX 2018

Trades 19,8 WAR (8th)

FA 14,1 WAR (2nd)

Draft 17,9 WAR (3rd)

Intl FA 3,7 (11th)

Other 1,6 (18th)

 

2017 Astros only had 6 drafted players (Bregman, Correa,Fisher,Keuchel, McCullers, Springer) and 2 Int'l FA (Altuve/Guriel)  on their WS championship team

 

2020 Pads are projected to have via trade (Tatis Jr/Margot/Naylor/Paddack/Castillo/Mejia/Perdomo) you can argue we developed these guys but truth is they were not drafted or J2 signings but rather targeted on trades by AJP..

So homegrown Drafted or J2 signings.. Lamet/Hedges/Munoz/Lucchesi/Quntrill/Baez/Cordero

My point is WE ARE WAY HEAVY on Prospects/development in our roster (HOMEGROWN or acquired in TRADES) they still came up thru the ranks of the Padres system--- Whereas the past 3 champions have had MAYBE 6 to 8 such players on their 25/26 man roster.. we are projected to have FOURTEEN such players-- if anything we are relying too much on HOMEGROWN talent and not balanced enough with other resources-- in any case if we study every team that has won the WS (I aint comparing ourselves to the LAD cause they aint won anything)... over the last decade-- you will find 3-5 trades they made shipping out multiple top specs for ONE or TWO or more pieces-- along with a few BIG FA splashes ---So we got the FA splash done (Hosmer/Pomz/ Machado)... we more certainly have the homegrown stuff going on.. Where we are lacking but starting to "convert" some chips for MLB talent is on the trade market-- +Davies + Pham a solid start-- 2-3 more solid pieces should equate to WINDOW WIDE OPEN!...and with what seems like an endless farm to back it for a while

Should we look at those top 10 prospects? Lindor, Bryant, Correa , Baez-all stars Walker, Bradley-failures Sano-huge bat Taveras-dead Bogaerts-Star Buxton-okay but not a star. Those are damn good odds! 6-stars 1-okay 1-dead 2-failures. 60%-70% chance of being a star, 20% chance of failure. They are all still playing. Gore fits in this section. Should we go to the #20-40 prospects where Trammell and Patino reside?

Quote from JasonE135 on December 29, 2019, 9:34 pm

Okay, Mr. Tatis is right and I was wrong. So, a couple of corrections:

Verlander never did fall off a cliff, but was expected to. His fastball had dropped from 98 to 95 and his curveball wasn’t what it once was. He learned a slider and has defied my expectations. Yes, big prospects changed hands. I was wrong about that.

Cole was the one who the Astros made into who he is today. He had fallen into throwing sinkers. His last 2 ERA’s before he was dealt were 3.88 and 4.24. Those are maybe average today. Before the new super ball, those were a little below average. The Astros switched him back to the 4-seam FB and increased his breaking ball usage by a huge amount.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 29, 2019, 10:52 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on December 29, 2019, 8:57 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 29, 2019, 8:14 pm

https://www.mlb.com/news/2014-top-100-mlb-prospects-list-c301609478

 

2014 top 100 prospects... Look at #100 the dude we just signed out of Japan

 

BUT the reason I am posting this list is all them top 100 PITCHING prospects.. you know like Gore/Patino/etc... etc... Look at those top P in the top ten.. Oh boy Walker what an ACE, hell #11 Noah is not even an ACE more like a very solid #2/3 with upside to be better.. Gray? hell FRIED was ours and he is solid but hardly a TOR. I mean is there ONE TOR in that list?,,, NO... prospects are just that prospects--

As far as how Nationals/Astros/ LAD etc were built -- mostly by trades and FA with a handful of home grown dudes..

Nats - Only Strasburg was homegrown out of SP

NATS

Free Agents 14.5 WAR (4th in MLB)

Draft 13.8 WAR (10th)

Trades 9.7 WAR (13th)

Int'l FA 8 WAR (4th)

Other -0.4 WAR (26th)

 

RED SOX 2018

Trades 19,8 WAR (8th)

FA 14,1 WAR (2nd)

Draft 17,9 WAR (3rd)

Intl FA 3,7 (11th)

Other 1,6 (18th)

 

2017 Astros only had 6 drafted players (Bregman, Correa,Fisher,Keuchel, McCullers, Springer) and 2 Int'l FA (Altuve/Guriel)  on their WS championship team

 

2020 Pads are projected to have via trade (Tatis Jr/Margot/Naylor/Paddack/Castillo/Mejia/Perdomo) you can argue we developed these guys but truth is they were not drafted or J2 signings but rather targeted on trades by AJP..

So homegrown Drafted or J2 signings.. Lamet/Hedges/Munoz/Lucchesi/Quntrill/Baez/Cordero

My point is WE ARE WAY HEAVY on Prospects/development in our roster (HOMEGROWN or acquired in TRADES) they still came up thru the ranks of the Padres system--- Whereas the past 3 champions have had MAYBE 6 to 8 such players on their 25/26 man roster.. we are projected to have FOURTEEN such players-- if anything we are relying too much on HOMEGROWN talent and not balanced enough with other resources-- in any case if we study every team that has won the WS (I aint comparing ourselves to the LAD cause they aint won anything)... over the last decade-- you will find 3-5 trades they made shipping out multiple top specs for ONE or TWO or more pieces-- along with a few BIG FA splashes ---So we got the FA splash done (Hosmer/Pomz/ Machado)... we more certainly have the homegrown stuff going on.. Where we are lacking but starting to "convert" some chips for MLB talent is on the trade market-- +Davies + Pham a solid start-- 2-3 more solid pieces should equate to WINDOW WIDE OPEN!...and with what seems like an endless farm to back it for a while

Should we look at those top 10 prospects? Lindor, Bryant, Correa , Baez-all stars Walker, Bradley-failures Sano-huge bat Taveras-dead Bogaerts-Star Buxton-okay but not a star. Those are damn good odds! 6-stars 1-okay 1-dead 2-failures. 60%-70% chance of being a star, 20% chance of failure. They are all still playing. Gore fits in this section. Should we go to the #20-40 prospects where Trammell and Patino reside?

I was strickly making a point about Pitching prospects.. Not position guys..

 

Since many are hesitant to part with Patino or Gorr