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Off Season Thread
#921 · December 29, 2019, 4:35 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2019, 12:26 pmActually do worry about Richards ... too many are just conceding him a major role based on "hope". He has not had a good season since 2015 (which was down from his best in 2014) and those were his only two good seasons. So ... beset by injuries ... the last 4 seasons were nothing of note ... will be 32 next season.
Can anyone really rely on him making through a full season .. being anywhere close to his 2015 performance level (ERA in mid-3s) or we will see a guy lucky to rack up 120 innings with a 4+ ERA? Makes the case for not dealing either Quantrill or Lucchesi now.
About mid-season, would not be surprised that either Gore or Patino (or both) move into the starting rotation with good minor league results and the ML incumbents injured or underperforming.
So, maybe a bit of Preller's decision making in dealing Quantrill or Lucchesi this winter (for anyone) is his conviction of the remaining 5 SP options being effective out of the blocks and the timing of the readiness of Gore and / or Patino to step in when needed. Did hear one suggestion that the Padres see Gore as really close to ML work ... with the outside chance (outside mind you) that he could earn a slot to start the season (like Paddack). They think he is that good and that close.
I think there’s as much chance that Richards is successful (has been in MLB before) as there is a Rookie(no matter how highly regarded) is.
Padre fans have pretty much penciled Gore and Patino into the Hall of Fame.
I am as excited about them as any SP prospects we’ve ever had (Tankersley anyone?)...but they don’t have a single Ml inning yet.
I would advise just a tad bit of lowered expectations for a year or two at least.
As a reminder in 2001 Dennis Tankersley was 10-4 with a 1.98 era and a 173/44 K/BB ratio.
Remind you of anyone?
#922 · December 29, 2019, 4:56 pm
Clevinger ain't NO 3.50 ERA pitching at Petco man
Dude is a career 3.20 (2.94 in 2019) pitching in the AL to an extra batter every start..at Petco in the NL this dude is 2.75 or lower.. ACE. Some of you acting like we have 3 or 4 = SP.. We don't even have 1... And yes Clevinger is Patino's and Gore's absolute best outcome..
#923 · December 29, 2019, 5:19 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2019, 4:35 pmQuote from fenn68 on December 29, 2019, 12:26 pmActually do worry about Richards ... too many are just conceding him a major role based on "hope". He has not had a good season since 2015 (which was down from his best in 2014) and those were his only two good seasons. So ... beset by injuries ... the last 4 seasons were nothing of note ... will be 32 next season.
Can anyone really rely on him making through a full season .. being anywhere close to his 2015 performance level (ERA in mid-3s) or we will see a guy lucky to rack up 120 innings with a 4+ ERA? Makes the case for not dealing either Quantrill or Lucchesi now.
About mid-season, would not be surprised that either Gore or Patino (or both) move into the starting rotation with good minor league results and the ML incumbents injured or underperforming.
So, maybe a bit of Preller's decision making in dealing Quantrill or Lucchesi this winter (for anyone) is his conviction of the remaining 5 SP options being effective out of the blocks and the timing of the readiness of Gore and / or Patino to step in when needed. Did hear one suggestion that the Padres see Gore as really close to ML work ... with the outside chance (outside mind you) that he could earn a slot to start the season (like Paddack). They think he is that good and that close.
I think there’s as much chance that Richards is successful (has been in MLB before) as there is a Rookie(no matter how highly regarded) is.
Padre fans have pretty much penciled Gore and Patino into the Hall of Fame.
I am as excited about them as any SP prospects we’ve ever had (Tankersley anyone?)...but they don’t have a single Ml inning yet.
I would advise just a tad bit of lowered expectations for a year or two at least.
As a reminder in 2001 Dennis Tankersley was 10-4 with a 1.98 era and a 173/44 K/BB ratio.
Remind you of anyone?
Wow totally forgot about Tankersley. Thanks for the reminder Mr. P. I thought he would be an ace for years.
#924 · December 29, 2019, 6:08 pm
I don’t want to rain on everyone’s parade.
But in the context of trading prospects for “proven” major league Stars.....you do it every time(within reason).
Clevinger is worth more than just about any of us would want to give up.
Anderson Espinoza another example.
Imagine what we would have been able to get 3 years ago for Espinoza/Margot/Getty’s/Guerra?
Hindsight of course....but Major League stars are much more rare than minor league prospects.
#925 · December 29, 2019, 6:31 pm
Where do teams get stars? There are 3 ways:
1) Draft and grow them yourself. Obviously this is the best way.
2) Sign them when they hit free agency. We did this with Machado. It only costs $30-$40 million per year and $300-$400 million guaranteed. You can afford maybe 1 or 2 this way.
3) Trade for them when they are still cheap. Guys like Paddack and Tatis. What would it take to get them from us? Do you expect other teams to be any cheaper?
Who are the best teams in mlb?
Dodgers-Bellinger, Verdugo, Seager, Peterson, Turner, Muncy, Smith, Kershaw, Jansen, Buehler, Urias, Ryu, Lux, May
How many of these stars did they trade for? 1-Turner, and he wasn’t a star until after they traded for him.
Want to look at the Nationals? Astros? Even the Yankees only traded for 1 or 2 stars. Stanton? Their lefty starter? I know they regret Stanton at least. Even their MVP Torrens was a prospect when they traded for him. One a player has become a star, they are no longer worth what they would cost to sign or trade for. They have to become stars on your watch.
#926 · December 29, 2019, 6:46 pm
Quote from JasonE135 on December 29, 2019, 6:31 pmWhere do teams get stars? There are 3 ways:
1) Draft and grow them yourself. Obviously this is the best way.
2) Sign them when they hit free agency. We did this with Machado. It only costs $30-$40 million per year and $300-$400 million guaranteed. You can afford maybe 1 or 2 this way.
3) Trade for them when they are still cheap. Guys like Paddack and Tatis. What would it take to get them from us? Do you expect other teams to be any cheaper?
Who are the best teams in mlb?
Dodgers-Bellinger, Verdugo, Seager,
In this case we would be doing option #4...trading multiple prospects for one.
Remember when the Astros traded future superstars Daz Cameron,Franklin Perez and Jake Rogers for Justin Verlander?
#927 · December 29, 2019, 7:00 pm
They were 1 piece away. Are we? No. Not even close. You save your bullets for when you have a kill shot and you know it will only take 1. The Astros already had stars falling out of their ears before they traded for Verlander. Stars they grew themselves. Let’s not jump the gun 2-3 years too early. We are not there yet.
What you suggest is still option 3 BTW.
#928 · December 29, 2019, 7:14 pm
To be fair the Astros didn’t make just one trade. They made 3, dealing for Cole, Verlander and Greinke.
#929 · December 29, 2019, 7:22 pm
Quote from JasonE135 on December 29, 2019, 7:00 pmThey were 1 piece away. Are we? No. Not even close. You save your bullets for when you have a kill shot and you know it will only take 1. The Astros already had stars falling out of their ears before they traded for Verlander. Stars they grew themselves. Let’s not jump the gun 2-3 years too early. We are not there yet.
What you suggest is still option 3 BTW.
How is that #3?
Verlander was making $28 mil per season when the Astros traded for him....hardly cheap.
And I was just pointing out another example of how trading three top prospects for a Star was a STEAL even at $28 mil....and Clevinger is at FIVE!
Are you saying that wouldn’t have been a Good trade even if they weren’t “one player away”?
It doesn’t matter who you are.....you make that trade every dang time.
Lastly......you don’t have to be one player away to trade for 3 years of an affordable #1 Starter.....that’s just crazy talk.
#930 · December 29, 2019, 7:26 pm
Quote from TatisJr on December 29, 2019, 7:14 pmTo be fair the Astros didn’t make just one trade. They made 3, dealing for Cole, Verlander and Greinke.
I’m not sure what this has to do with my point?
Especially considering they were years apart.
But my point wasn’t about winning it all...it was about trading multiple prospects for an Ace.
If anything this even furthers my point as trading for Cole was another great example.
Maybe an even better one cause Cole wasn’t making $28 mil at the time.
He was almost in the exact position at the time of his trade to Houston as Clevinger is now.