Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2019, 7:50 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2019, 12:38 pm

National media and “image” seem to suggest Matt Boyd is a good trade target for a team needing to boost their SP ... upside IF-IF-IF. Boyd was a mediocre pitcher prior to last season .. had a hot 1st half and a poor 2nd half. Yet that hot 1st half coupled with some excellent K% keeps his image up. At the same time Lucchesi gets no love and barely is considered a #5 on a poor team. Consider the 2nd half of 2019:

Boyd (28) ... 3 years control ... 14 starts (78 innings) ... 5.51 ERA ...0.6 WAR

Lucchesi (26) ... 4 years control ... 13 starts (68 innings) ... 4.52 ERA ... 0.6 WAR

Now I don’t see that much in Boyd but if others in MLB think he is a legit trade target in a SP starved league (and DET is reluctant to deal him) .... shouldn’t Lucchesi also be a legit trade target ... probably with more value that we place on him?

Timing is everything ... MLBTradeRumors just did a piece on Boyd as a trade chip. Apparently Detroit and the Angels were in discussion with Detroit seeking Marsh as the return. LAA said no.

Probably suggests how the LAA value Marsh or maybe not value Boyd. Clearly Detroit is buying into Boyd's trade value ... but they are a very bad team with no real incentive to deal Boyd unless it is for a premium return ... so no harm asking.

Since Marsh who is a very good prospect that can play CF/RF (he has the arm) and may still require another year in the minors since only finished AA ... would fit nicely into the Padres portfolio of high ceiling prospects ... could the Padres do better in an offer to the Angels?

With an OF for the foreseeable future of Upton - Trout - Adell / Goodwin ... Marsh is high quality excess and therefore should be a valued trade chip. Angels NEED immediate help with SP / RP / C .... they have all the offense they need to contend / win. Maddon probably is lobbying for immediate help to keep his image as a great manager going and while seeing some real vulnerability with Houston ... departing pitchers - aging players - thin farm system - unknown of cheating scandal - no major adds.

Could the Padres shape an offer around Lucchesi (or Quantrill) ... Hedges (Maddon's next David Ross) ... and maybe a decent prospect given the poor LAA farm system? Pitching is their big need ... so Padres have a lot of options beyond their top SP prospects that could work as the #3 in a deal. Alternatively, maybe a ML RP as the #3 even is more appealing to LAA (Perdomo, Reyes, Guerra, Bednar ... all could be a boost to the LAA RP options). Basically, think the Padres have the parts to tease LAA to deal Marsh ... but Marsh is just a prospect so Padres are not likely to go crazy and move the high ceiling prospects.

 

Quote from onlypads on December 29, 2019, 8:29 am

Yeah I agree. I would think that is possible. L straight up for Marsh really should be more than enough given L's production and control in MLB in relation to Marsh's AA production.  I mean I would give more to make it happen, but still I think L straight up, in terms of value, is more than commensurate.

Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2019, 9:02 am

Quote from onlypads on December 29, 2019, 8:29 am

Yeah I agree. I would think that is possible. L straight up for Marsh really should be more than enough given L's production and control in MLB in relation to Marsh's AA production.  I mean I would give more to make it happen, but still I think L straight up, in terms of value, is more than commensurate.

I would have agreed until the report that LAA turned down Boyd for Marsh ... and Boyd is not all that different than Lucchesi (see my other post).

LAA may be holding out for a more certain ML SP upgrade (not likely they find one) ... adding a non-painful sweetener to help them win in 2020 might get them to budge ... hence the Hedges' add to fill another gaping ML hole. (I am OK going with Mejia - Torrens ... or signing veteran Hundley for 2020 to get a high ceiling RF option for 2021 and beyond).

The key is the LAA spending big for Rondon and creating a very strong offense for 2020 coupled with the issues in Houston opening a current window to overtake Houston if they fill major weakness in SP and C with ML talent. After a long spell of being out of the playoffs ... that has to be worth dealing an "excess" prospect in Marsh from Moreno's view. At this point may be just dragging a deal out to maximize the potential return if they see multiple teams "interested".

 

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 29, 2019, 11:17 am

Think you're reaching on Marsh... he did have a great season last year:  It looks like his hit tool should be a 55, but playing devil's advocate, his 50 power grade looks pretty generous and probably keeps him out of top 100 MLB prospects:  7 HR in >400 PA last year.  21 in almost 1,200 in 3 yrs in Minors.

Southern League #'s:   Marsh  .300/.383/.428 = .811 OPS in 360 AB   Grisham  .254/.371/.504 = .875 OPS in 236 AB (13 HR, 30 XBH in 280 PA).   Yes, Grisham's Arm is a legit concern in RF...

But the guy whose #s are really similar to Marsh is Olivares... really a near clone but in different league(s):  .283/.349/.453 = .8o1  Olivares did only hit 4 HR on the road, but his profile & tools are very similar:  sure looks like a "50" overall grade guy to me...  and 18, 12, 17 HR last 3 yrs = 47 in about 1,600 PA

Marsh to me looks like a potentially really good MLB 4th OF or maybe platooner, but despite having the size, just hasn't shown the power yet of an everyday regular corner OF.   Not sure I'd even trade Olivares for him straight up.

Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2019, 11:51 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 29, 2019, 11:17 am

Think you're reaching on Marsh... he did have a great season last year:  It looks like his hit tool should be a 55, but playing devil's advocate, his 50 power grade looks pretty generous and probably keeps him out of top 100 MLB prospects:  7 HR in >400 PA last year.  21 in almost 1,200 in 3 yrs in Minors.

Southern League #'s:   Marsh  .300/.383/.428 = .811 OPS in 360 AB   Grisham  .254/.371/.504 = .875 OPS in 236 AB (13 HR, 30 XBH in 280 PA).   Yes, Grisham's Arm is a legit concern in RF...

But the guy whose #s are really similar to Marsh is Olivares... really a near clone but in different league(s):  .283/.349/.453 = .8o1  Olivares did only hit 4 HR on the road, but his profile & tools are very similar:  sure looks like a "50" overall grade guy to me...  and 18, 12, 17 HR last 3 yrs = 47 in about 1,600 PA

Marsh to me looks like a potentially really good MLB 4th OF or maybe platooner, but despite having the size, just hasn't shown the power yet of an everyday regular corner OF.   Not sure I'd even trade Olivares for him straight up.

Why not have both in the system ... both can play CF as well as RF one LHH and one RHH. Marsh just turned 22 so have to consider upside with the power but his plus defense MIGHT earn him CF.

Not suggesting dealing any major assets ... Lucchesi (maybe a #5 ... who will lose a job as the real prospects arrive) and Hedges (not the future with Mejia - Torrens - Campusano - Hunt lining up).

Add a legit prospect to an uncertain mix of Grisham, Trammell, Cordero, Naylor, Olivares (all have some proving to do) and the more that materialize the sooner they deal Margot and Pham (who is only here for 2 years anyway).

Side: like Olivares upside but worried about his AWAY stats in AA being more reflective of his projection than his overall ... still should earn a reserve role at the ML at some point given his all around defense and speed if he can hit at all in the upper levels.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 29, 2019, 11:52 am

Marsh is a consensus top 80 prospect when the next rankings come out. As far as his power, Joe Adell hit what, 8-11 HR last year? He is the # 5 prospect in baseball. Marsh is a hot commodity now. I am sure the Angels are hoping for a Trammell type of return for Marsh. They won’t get it.

The Angels are desperate for pitching right now. I think a trade of Quantrill for him would be fair, but I am sure we would have to add Hedges and/or someone else. Quantrill was a top 100 prospect himself. Yes he had an ERA over 5 last year, but he showed an ability to dominate hitters like nobody else in their rotation other than Ohtani. He is going to be a high quality starter.

Teams expect prospect hauls for good to great players. Now teams are expecting hauls for good prospects too. Marsh is the Angels only trade chip to get them pitching. They are going to hope to get a Patino type in return for him. We all know that won’t happen. He probably won’t be traded until during the year, when the Angels get desperate. If Quantrill gets a rotation spot, even as an injury replacement, hopefully he will show improved consistency. If he does, and I expect he will, he may be too valuable to trade for Marsh. Anyway, a trade for Marsh probably will not happen until well into the season.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2019, 12:05 pm

Starting pitchers hold a lot more value than corner outfielders.

Now that we’ve added Pham(even if only 2 years) and Grisham I’m not so sure Preller would be willing to lose Lucchesi or Quantrill’s future potential just to add another option for the future in the OF.

Now maybe he has a high opinion of Marsh....if so maybe he would.

But not just to make another trade.

With the questions surrounding Lamet and Richards for this season we may need those innings from Joey and Q is “next man up” if anyone gets hurt........which almost always happens.

Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2019, 12:26 pm

Actually do worry about Richards ... too many are just conceding him a major role based on "hope". He has not had a good season since 2015 (which was down from his best in 2014) and those were his only two good seasons. So ... beset by injuries ... the last 4 seasons were nothing of note ... will be 32 next season.

Can anyone really rely on him making through a full season .. being anywhere close to his 2015 performance level (ERA in mid-3s) or we will see a guy lucky to rack up 120 innings with a 4+ ERA? Makes the case for not dealing either Quantrill or Lucchesi now.

About mid-season, would not be surprised that either Gore or Patino (or both) move into the starting rotation with good minor league results and the ML incumbents injured or underperforming.

So, maybe a bit of Preller's decision making in dealing Quantrill or Lucchesi this winter (for anyone) is his conviction of the remaining 5 SP options being effective out of the blocks and the timing of the readiness of Gore and / or Patino to step in when needed. Did hear one suggestion that the Padres see Gore as really close to ML work ... with the outside chance (outside mind you) that he could earn a slot to start the season (like Paddack). They think he is that good and that close.

Quote from Commie on December 29, 2019, 1:21 pm

Any of you who want to "add" or "include" or "throw in" Hedges into a trade just stop.  He is the only ML catcher in the system right now who can be trusted to handle an ML staff that is trying to win.

Any Hedges move creates a big hole. Really?  You want to start Mejia or Torrens on a "contender?"