Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2019, 9:17 am

Although love optimism for 2020 ... think "success" is getting to .500 given the core of this team. Making the wild card is a real long shot with a combo of a whole string of Padres having career years while other teams just collapse. That view shapes my less than enthusiastic desire to trade top prospects for short(er) term fixes that just will not be enough to make that wild card.

In 2019 the Padres were 70-92 ... need to pick-up 11 wins just to get .500. The 2nd Wild Card MILW had 89 wins ... so Padres need +20 wins to pass that but there were 7 other teams between SD and MILW and most a lot closer than SD. PHIL, CINN, and METS are in a much better position to pass MILW than SD. Then LAD, StL, ATL, WASH may falter but will not fall off so much to free up a Wild Card slot.

Adding Davies and Pham with the return of Tatis will do a lot towards hitting .500 and picking up those first 11 wins but everything else has not changed all that much.

I accept the Padres are at (or very near) their payroll cap ... so still moving Myers' contract by the use of prospects is my priority so that payroll space can be used for ML upgrades .. but that uses prospects which in turn limits flexibility for making trades.

My trade priorities with he remaining prospects would be Merrifield (4 control year / low cost / major offense upgrade) and, maybe, Nimmo (3 years control / low cost / major offense upgrade).

Plus do this without trading Gore or Patino who will be poised to replace Richards in 2021 and Davies in 2022 (or sooner).

That would set-up a good run in 2021 (before Pham and Davies go FA) but still provide a strong profile for 2022 as someone out of internal OF prospects emerge or ... with payroll space open ... a veteran add via FA or trade for the OF.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 20, 2019, 9:39 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2019, 9:17 am

Although love optimism for 2020 ... think "success" is getting to .500 given the core of this team. Making the wild card is a real long shot with a combo of a whole string of Padres having career years while other teams just collapse. That view shapes my less than enthusiastic desire to trade top prospects for short(er) term fixes that just will not be enough to make that wild card.

In 2019 the Padres were 70-92 ... need to pick-up 11 wins just to get .500. The 2nd Wild Card MILW had 89 wins ... so Padres need +20 wins to pass that but there were 7 other teams between SD and MILW and most a lot closer than SD. PHIL, CINN, and METS are in a much better position to pass MILW than SD. Then LAD, StL, ATL, WASH may falter but will not fall off so much to free up a Wild Card slot.

Adding Davies and Pham with the return of Tatis will do a lot towards hitting .500 and picking up those first 11 wins but everything else has not changed all that much.

I accept the Padres are at (or very near) their payroll cap ... so still moving Myers' contract by the use of prospects is my priority so that payroll space can be used for ML upgrades .. but that uses prospects which in turn limits flexibility for making trades.

My trade priorities with he remaining prospects would be Merrifield (4 control year / low cost / major offense upgrade) and, maybe, Nimmo (3 years control / low cost / major offense upgrade).

Plus do this without trading Gore or Patino who will be poised to replace Richards in 2021 and Davies in 2022 (or sooner).

That would set-up a good run in 2021 (before Pham and Davies go FA) but still provide a strong profile for 2022 as someone out of internal OF prospects emerge or ... with payroll space open ... a veteran add via FA or trade for the OF.

Well we are projected to win 85 as we are.. With no further adds.. So yeah Lindor + PRICE ..minus Myers moves that neddle to around 90 wins.. So 2020 (as is) projects us to be in the WC2 range all season... Not hard to imagine what a move or 2 for super star level player/s would equate to..but probably puts us in the drivers seat for WC spot at least...

Quote from BoosterSD on December 20, 2019, 10:09 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2019, 9:17 am

In 2019 the Padres were 70-92 ... need to pick-up 11 wins just to get .500. The 2nd Wild Card MILW had 89 wins ... so Padres need +20 wins to pass that but there were 7 other teams between SD and MILW and most a lot closer than SD. PHIL, CINN, and METS are in a much better position to pass MILW than SD. Then LAD, StL, ATL, WASH may falter but will not fall off so much to free up a Wild Card slot.

While I might not be as optimistic as Henry, I dont think Im as pessimistic as you on the outcome of the 2020 squad.

LAD is possibly losing a SP that did real well for them. Kershaw is getting a year older. Buehler will be great, but who knows what they are going to get from May and Urias as far as innings are concerned. Most of the line up is really strong, but Turner is a year older and has had some injury issues, and Pollock is no lock for over 100 games.

For SD, Paddock will be able to go longer this year, Davies is an upgrade from Lauer, and Lamet and Richards to start the year will be better than Marg and Strahm in the rotation. The addition of Pham is huge, and I think that Grisham and Profar will help, along with a full year of Tatis.

MIL is a mess IMO. How they think Urias can be their starting SS is a mystery to me. I look at their line up right now, they have 2 2B, 4 1B, and 3 LFs and a not overly excited about their starting rotation. Yelich is a stud and I like the pick up of Garcia and the catcher Narvarez. But SS is a hole, and is Cain on the downslide? So I think they slide out of WC contention.

STL we played them .500 last year, and I think we have improved over them to this point.

I think we played to a .500 record with ATL, although they should be tougher based on what they do at 3B. WAS while their rotation is top notch, have a huge hole at 3B to fill, good luck with that.

Our biggest problem last season was under performing against teams with losing records, PIT, MIA, etc. We improve their, and we are in the range  84-88 wins.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 20, 2019, 10:18 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 20, 2019, 9:39 am

Well we are projected to win 85 as we are.. With no further adds.. So yeah Lindor + PRICE ..minus Myers moves that neddle to around 90 wins.. So 2020 (as is) projects us to be in the WC2 range all season... Not hard to imagine what a move or 2 for super star level player/s would equate to..but probably puts us in the drivers seat for WC spot at least...

IMO Price does not help us add many if any wins. It is a bad salary for bad salary move. The one bright spot to a potential Price trade, is that he would stand a better chance for a bounce back performance in SD rather than in BOS. The parks are bigger and he would get away from the monster set of RHH in NYY unis. That is as long as his arm doesnt fall off at the elbow.

But Lindor moves the needle, as long as Tatis can handle either 2B or an OF position, without being upset that he is not the SS. A conversation Im sure AJP has had prior to making a move.

Listening to XM, here is the only reason that a Lindor move might make sense. Pham has two years of control. Lindor has two years of control. Four years before Machado can opt out, and two years before Hosmer can opt out. So, in theory AJP could go to Tatis and say, hey play 2B or CF/RF for two years, and then when Lindor leaves, I will give you SS right back, and I wont hold it against you when it comes to contract time.

That gives you a nice two year frame with Lindor, Machado, Tatis, and Paddock, and Gore.

 

Quote from onlypads on December 20, 2019, 10:53 am

Tatis's arm and speed are wasted at 2B. Whit at 2B, Machado at 3B, Lindor at SS, and Hosmer/Myers at 1B. Tatis in CF, Grisham in RF, and Pham in LF.

I just dont think I could ask that of Tatis, too natural at SS.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 20, 2019, 11:13 am

Quote from onlypads on December 20, 2019, 10:53 am

Tatis's arm and speed are wasted at 2B. Whit at 2B, Machado at 3B, Lindor at SS, and Hosmer/Myers at 1B. Tatis in CF, Grisham in RF, and Pham in LF.

I just dont think I could ask that of Tatis, too natural at SS.

 

So + Whit + Lindor.. I like it.. Oh except now Gore is #1 spec BUT after acquiring those 2 who is #2? Ornelas or Hunt..? Cause Campusano + Patino + Abrams and Trammell all likely to go to get those 2 here...

 

A lot cheaper to add Betts + Lindor or Betts + Whit ..than Lindor + Whit.. Just saying.. Betts cost us like 3 or 4 top 8-15 specs.. Whit and /or Lindor cost us like #3 4 and 6 or #2 5 and 8 alone ..so for Both 2 3 4 5 6 and 8.. A lot

Quote from JasonE135 on December 20, 2019, 11:31 am

I think that putting Tatis in CF is to invite a Wil Myers or Luis Urias redux. That young man worked very, very hard to get as good as he is at SS. He makes a lot of AMAZING plays there. He just needs to continue to get the reps there so the routine plays become routine to him.

Telling a guy with 1/2 season of ml time to learn an entirely new position, and one of the hardest ones at that, on the fly at the major league level is a recipe for disaster. We can expect very bad, possibly embarrassing defense, serious offensive regression and a total destruction of confidence.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 20, 2019, 11:43 am

Quote from onlypads on December 20, 2019, 10:53 am

Tatis's arm and speed are wasted at 2B. Whit at 2B, Machado at 3B, Lindor at SS, and Hosmer/Myers at 1B. Tatis in CF, Grisham in RF, and Pham in LF.

I just dont think I could ask that of Tatis, too natural at SS.

 

To have that lineup you do whatever you have to do.If we are in serious talks they have probably already gauged Tatis’s “mood” about a potential move.

Tatis-Pham-Lindor-Machado top 4?

Instantly makes us contenders in the NL.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2019, 2:57 pm

Ian Kinsler To Retire

By Jeff Todd | December 20, 2019 at 4:32pm CDT

In a surprising development, Padres second baseman Ian Kinsler has decided to retire, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’ll move into the San Diego front office in an as-yet-unknown capacity.

Precisely what will happen to the $4.25MM he’s owed under the contract he inked last winter remains to be seen — and will be subject to negotiations between the team and its now-former player.

========

I guess some negotiation is in play ... but he was guaranteed the $4.25MM so doubt he would give that up totally by just retiring ... maybe a commitment to a front office job for multiple years to stretch out that $4.25MM.

Opens a roster spot even if it does not save money.