Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 8, 2019, 4:48 am

Contreras 100 at C.. 10 1B. 10 in COF 535 PAs

Mejia 62 at C .. 10 at 1B .. 20 in COF ..8 DH 435 PAs

Would give us tremendous flex at C and OF.. Also give Hosmer 20 days off..142 games keeping him fresh (he seemed to wear down n 19)

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Quote from MrPadre19 on December 8, 2019, 5:13 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 8, 2019, 4:44 am

problem with Benintendi is .696 OPS vs LHP almost platoon worthy that's not good.

But he does crush RHP.. Don't want to downgrade too much vs LHP (Kershaw/Buehler) where we are xlose to the top of the mlb vs LHP.. While we improve vs RHP.. So why a Haniger type makes more sense for us.. And besides if Beni comes over and Myers leaves..who is our RH batter to spell Beni and maybe Hosmer from time to time (Mejia?)

Hmm....I’m getting .796 against LH and .764 against RH.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/player/splits/2019/2184354

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 8, 2019, 5:36 am

I was going career splits

But yeah if he has worked hard on LHP that would explain some of his overall lower 1.7 WAR in 2018 vs 3.7 WAR in 2019.. If that is the case he could be headed to a Yelich type breakout season as he puts it all together..

 

Career 696 vs LHP... 830 vs RHP

Quote from fenn68 on December 8, 2019, 5:43 am

The fangraph’s projections are entertaining but remember that they are projections based on some sort of computer algorithm (I would guess) underlying the WAR concept ... need to take that (good or bad) a bit skeptically. Would add that unlikely to find many (if any) teams with all their positions in the top 10 (or 15) ... need to improve yes but need more depth in the rankings since the difference between 1.3 WAR and 1.1 WAR can drop a team a lot in rankings but not really all that much in actual productivity.

Did check out a couple of projections on fangraphs .... enough to make you question the credibility (reliability) of the entire effort.

Started with the surprising rating of the SP as 10th best .. not something most would conclude. They had Richards with a mid-3 ERA and a mid-3 WAR ... had to go back years to get that kind of performance out of him ... possible but?

Now Davies I just don’t understand. Same projection had Davies with a 5.50 ERA. This is a guy with a career 3.91 ERA (3.04 away from Miller Park) going to a pitcher’s park at PETCO. But this is a computer WAR projection and as I recall they don’t like pitchers who don’t possess a lot of swing and miss / strikeout numbers.

Offensively they had Myers only playing about 1/2 the time and hitting less than his history (or even 2019) while based on little ML time they had Grisham hitting as he did in his debut. Plus somehow they hand Hedges (playing 1/3rd of the games) actually hitting better than his career average. I am sure similar head scratchers exist for every other team’s projections.

I have problems with WAR (especially its use of questionable defensive metrics in the calculation) but the projection algorithms just make it more entertaining than something to be concerned about.

Since the objective is winning and that is an entire team effort ... sometimes it may be better to improve a #10 ranked position to even a stronger rank than moving a #24 to maybe #15.

What is WAR good for? Absolutely nothing.

Quote from fenn68 on December 8, 2019, 5:57 am

The question with Benintendi should be how much better he is that the current Padre options for RF? Plus considering the Padres’ issue is hitting RHP and that is about 75% of the PA and maybe that gets him some advantage.

Boston plays him every day and does not seem concerned about his hitting LHP.

From a team standpoint, having Pham (LF) and Benintendi (RF) playing 150 games along with Machado, Tatis, Hosmer creates some stability and would allow a different mix of reserve players that offer more flexibility (or allow for some to be traded for other upgrades). Actually IF he gets it together we could see Profar holding a similar full time role.

Benintendi > Myers > Naylor > Cordero at his moment.

Quote from fenn68 on December 8, 2019, 9:25 am

To be clear NOT suggesting Davies will win the Cy Young but a suggesting that he will much more productive than he is getting credited for. Consider, that over the past 3 seasons (2017-19) for "qualified" SP ... not a small sample size ... the top 10 ML pitchers for ERA AWAY:

2.30 ... Scherzer

2.65 ... deGrom

2.69 ... Kershaw

2.80 ... Strasburg

2.92 ... DAVIES

2.96 ... Clevenger

2.97 ... Gray

2.99 ... Darvish

3.00 ... Sale

3.08 ... Verlander

That is pretty elite company based on actual on field run prevention (not theoretical stuff or style points). Then add that Davies is moving from a hitters' park (Miller Park) to a pitcher's park (PETCO) to improve his HOME stats and it is not a stretch to see him in 2020 be a solid middle of the rotation performer... if not a touch more impactful.

Ah what the heck .... Davies for Cy Young 🙂

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 8, 2019, 11:15 am

I didn't realize just how bad Hosmer has been vs. LHP...

In relatively large sample sizes (plays everyday) Hosmer's OPS was .600 in 2019, and .528 in '18... keep in mind this was in the middle of order where he always hits.  Simply CAN'T play that really at all, let alone #4/5 in order...   last 2 yrs vs LHP

AB:  379     2B 17   3B  3  HR  5  RBI  40    XBH only 6.6% of AB (even lower/PA).   Just no power at all.

2017 contract year looks like the outlier:  .760 OPS vs LHP,  2016 might have been more indicative:  .656.

Pads payed for a guy to play every day... and he's clearly shown last 2 years he really can't.  Kind of masked by Pads struggles vs RHP where Hosmer was one of the few bright spots (.781 OPS, hits well with guys on base), and relative team success vs LHP with (overly) RH lineup.   A team serious about contending has to have a serious conversation here that no player is entitled to play every day if they're not earning it.  Watch in ST to see which RH/SH players get 1B reps; I think Profar's success vs LHP will get him a significant # of starts at 1B.

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 8, 2019, 11:35 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 8, 2019, 11:15 am

I didn't realize just how bad Hosmer has been vs. LHP...

In relatively large sample sizes (plays everyday) Hosmer's OPS was .600 in 2019, and .528 in '18... keep in mind this was in the middle of order where he always hits.  Simply CAN'T play that really at all, let alone #4/5 in order...   last 2 yrs vs LHP

AB:  379     2B 17   3B  3  HR  5  RBI  40    XBH only 6.6% of AB (even lower/PA).   Just no power at all.

2017 contract year looks like the outlier:  .760 OPS vs LHP,  2016 might have been more indicative:  .656.

Pads payed for a guy to play every day... and he's clearly shown last 2 years he really can't.  Kind of masked by Pads struggles vs RHP where Hosmer was one of the few bright spots (.781 OPS, hits well with guys on base), and relative team success vs LHP with (overly) RH lineup.   A team serious about contending has to have a serious conversation here that no player is entitled to play every day if they're not earning it.  Watch in ST to see which RH/SH players get 1B reps; I think Profar's success vs LHP will get him a significant # of starts at 1B.

 

 

 

Sort of depends who is around for next season but agree a RHH needs to be spelling Hosmer v LHP.

France is the logical option but fair question he is here.

Mejia if they can time use of the other catcher with a LHP.

Myers but that depends a bit if whomever is in RF can hit LHP.

Kinsler ... just because.

Profar could but then need a RHH 2B and as of now that is Kinsler or France ... easier to use either as the 1B option.

Bottom line the roster needs to accommodate a mix of players that can cover Hosmer (and any other) v LHP. I should note that Cordero ... if he makes the 26 man has a poor history v LHP.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 8, 2019, 12:22 pm

It will be interesting to see how many times Hosmer sits against LH pitchers regardless of who plays 1B in his place.