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Off Season Thread

Quote from fenn68 on March 5, 2020, 1:47 pm

A template for a Tatis extension ... CWS just sign Yoan Moncada to an extension.

Moncada is older (24) and has 2 years of service time. He gets $70MM for 5 years ... the first four would have been control years and the fifth was a buyout of a FA year. Plus the CWS got a Club Option for 2025 at $25MM. Moncada becomes a FA at age 30.

Tatis is only 21 and has only one year of service time ... so he has five control years making a base 5 year in the deal (if signed before 2020 season) maybe about $55MM then add the FA years at about $25MM ... hopefully all club options.

Still think the Padres may wait until next winter ... just to be sure Tatis can stay healthy and his half season does not carry forward (at that level). See Myers.

CWS released the contract details:  a $4MM signing bonus, $1MM in 2020, $6MM in 2021, $13MM in 2022, $17MM in 2023 and $24MM in 2024. The $25MM option for 2025 comes with a $5MM buyout.

Moncada's  5/70 goes through his age 29 playing year (FA 29/30) = 14 MM AAV.   With the option it becomes 6/90 through his age 30 playing year (FA 30/31) = 15 MM AAV.

Helpful as a template for sure, but 2 major differences:   1)  Moncada received $30 MM+ when he signed as an INTL FA...  vs. Tatis' 700K.   2)  The 3.5+ year age difference.   It's hard to gauge the effect of Moncada's already existing financial security on the deal... the signing bonus would be life altering for Tatis, but not a big deal to Moncada.  One would think Pads have significantly more leverage over Tatis...  BUT

...it would be NUTS to construct a deal with Tatis for 6/7 years to "match" Moncada's by "only" buying  out 1-2 years of FA.   This would be handing Tatis financial security... and letting him walk AT age 27 (6) or 28 (7) as a FA.  Pads should push for a MINIMUM 8 (age 29) year deal, but 9-10 would be even better.  In other words,  I'm OK if Tatis exceeds Moncada's AAV.... but only because it's buying out another year+ of his FA due to his youth.   The easiest way to do that is either now or early in this season so you're taking out 1 of his 2 minimum salary years & still have SOME leverage.

Tatis is potentially "the" face of the franchise for the 2020's.  A healthy Tatis close to last year's production might be a 12/500MM guy!  So how about....

8-10 yr deal as:   8/115 (14.375 MM AAV)    OR  9/140 (15.55 MM AAV)   OR  10/160 (16 MM AAV) .  Buys out 3-5 years of FA, but Tatis is so young he still becomes a FA AT age 29 - 31!  His camp probably pushes towards age 28-29 (<30)

=  $2 MM S.B., $1 MM '20, $2 MM '21, $7MM '22 (Arb yr 1), $12 MM '23, $17 MM '24, $22 MM '25, $23 MM '26, $24 MM '27, then 2 club options of:  $5MM/$25MM '28, $5MM/$25MM '29

The risk of doing this is obvious.  But the risk of waiting is less so:   I believe a healthy Tatis performing at even a 10-15% decline from last year's #'s COSTS the Padres at least 10 MM over the life of an extension... for every month he plays.  His bat & athleticism make him a mortal lock to be a starter SOMEWHERE at 6 of the 8 positions on the field for literally every team in MLB.   The opportunity to lock him in at a truly bargain future price is sooner, not later.

 

I would look at it more simply ... $55MM for Tatis’ remaining 5 control years then $25MM for each FA year bought out and negotiate around that.

One could argue that it is to Tatis’ longer term financial benefit to get to FA sooner than later ... maybe at 26 or 27 so the “buying team” is bidding for his prime production years and paying extra in terms of a 10 year deal knowing the latter years will not be as productive (see Machado, Cabrera, Pujols, ...). Risk and reward balance in a pretty subjective discussion for both the player and the team.

Still would see the Padres waiting until next winter to make their move on buying out FA years ... Tatis still has much to prove.

Let's see how Tatis plays this year before a long term commitment. Half season should not a 7+ contract year make. Love him, don't get me wrong. Defense not to par, but this guy has the talent and ability to be very good with work.

  • Ian Kinsler is slated to play for Israel in the upcoming Tokyo 2020 Olympics.

    Kinsler confirmed the report in a video announcement from Team Israel. This is all assuming the Olympics take place as scheduled this summer. There's already plenty of conversation about a postponement due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Israel is slated to be one of six teams in the Olympic tournament, whenever it does take place. Kinsler turns 38 in June and announced his retirement from MLB this past December after spending the 2019 season with the Padres.

LOL

He won't be playing in the 2020 games as there are no 2020 games....maybe 2021

Wasn't sure where to put this.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/story/2020-04-23/dan-walters-padres-catcher-san-diego-police-dies

He graduated the year before me( he from Santana, me from Henry) I remember being in awe of this kid. He was a helluva baseball player.

RIP Danny.

https://www.mlb.com/news/statement-from-the-indians

Has anyone else been tracking this story?

Wasn't Columbus searching for a faster way to reach India when he came upon what we now refer to as the Carribean and North America.

Isn't the name Indian given to those who are indigenous to the Indian sub-continent, as is Americans to America, Mexicans to Mexico, Japanese to Japan, etc........

Obviously Columbus erroneously felt he had reached India, hence calling those native to the land Indian. The term Indian is neither derogatory nor racist.

Is there something I'm missing here? Is it the way the Indians( or Braves for that matter) have portrayed the Indian in logos or other signage?

I'm all for doing the right thing. I just need a better understanding of why the nickname for the Cleveland baseball team is being considered for change.

 

There’s absolutely no reason to change it other than fear of being considered racist.

This counter culture we now live in is out of hand.

 

Grew up in Cleveland as an Indians' fan ... not a new issue.

Sort of dividing the Cleveland issue into multiple layers. First, for years the "Chief Wahoo" team logo was the primary target as a demeaning caricature of Native Americans ... it was eliminated a few years.

Second issue surrounds Native Americans (should say a component of the Native American population) that push against the "Indian" label given by a Europeans to the indigenous peoples of North America. Should note that there are a lot of different Native American "Nations" that have identities just like France v Spain so one label is, in the minds of some, is an issue that creates a second class status for their societies. Should add the more vocal Native American groups also believe Columbus should be treated as an invader (and someone who brought "foreign diseases" that decimated Native American populations) and monuments to Columbus should be removed (some have already).

Then layer in the history of the government's US expansion "conquering" the various Native American Nations ... taking their lands ... and relegating them to "reservations". There is still a vocal element of Native Americans that feel those lands taken should be returned / greater compensation.

Link all those issues and history ... and for some ... the "logos" and "labels" just serve to relegate them to second class citizens and serve to reinforce stereotypes. "Some" but not all.

====

Seems as though the Native Americans .. and not other groups ... have been the source of sport team nicknames / logos. Note that St John's University changed years ago from the "Redmen" to the "Red Storm" .... Stanford changed from the "Indians" to the "Cardinal" ... many other schools have already made the change.

 

Thanks for the interesting perspective Fenn.

I'm often asked if I'm from Canada whilst here in the UK l. I obviously am quick to let them know I'm from SD, so I do understand that part of it but certainly doesn't make me upset.

As for the reparations, you're certainly right about that being a minority voice. I'm sure the Sycuan are happy to leave well enough alone, as are the Chumash, Viejas, etc.

That said, I'm sitting in the same camp as Mr. Padre19. World has gone crazy.