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Off Season Thread

Quote from fenn68 on March 5, 2020, 1:47 pm

A template for a Tatis extension ... CWS just sign Yoan Moncada to an extension.

Moncada is older (24) and has 2 years of service time. He gets $70MM for 5 years ... the first four would have been control years and the fifth was a buyout of a FA year. Plus the CWS got a Club Option for 2025 at $25MM. Moncada becomes a FA at age 30.

Tatis is only 21 and has only one year of service time ... so he has five control years making a base 5 year in the deal (if signed before 2020 season) maybe about $55MM then add the FA years at about $25MM ... hopefully all club options.

Still think the Padres may wait until next winter ... just to be sure Tatis can stay healthy and his half season does not carry forward (at that level). See Myers.

CWS released the contract details:  a $4MM signing bonus, $1MM in 2020, $6MM in 2021, $13MM in 2022, $17MM in 2023 and $24MM in 2024. The $25MM option for 2025 comes with a $5MM buyout.

Moncada's  5/70 goes through his age 29 playing year (FA 29/30) = 14 MM AAV.   With the option it becomes 6/90 through his age 30 playing year (FA 30/31) = 15 MM AAV.

Helpful as a template for sure, but 2 major differences:   1)  Moncada received $30 MM+ when he signed as an INTL FA...  vs. Tatis' 700K.   2)  The 3.5+ year age difference.   It's hard to gauge the effect of Moncada's already existing financial security on the deal... the signing bonus would be life altering for Tatis, but not a big deal to Moncada.  One would think Pads have significantly more leverage over Tatis...  BUT

...it would be NUTS to construct a deal with Tatis for 6/7 years to "match" Moncada's by "only" buying  out 1-2 years of FA.   This would be handing Tatis financial security... and letting him walk AT age 27 (6) or 28 (7) as a FA.  Pads should push for a MINIMUM 8 (age 29) year deal, but 9-10 would be even better.  In other words,  I'm OK if Tatis exceeds Moncada's AAV.... but only because it's buying out another year+ of his FA due to his youth.   The easiest way to do that is either now or early in this season so you're taking out 1 of his 2 minimum salary years & still have SOME leverage.

Tatis is potentially "the" face of the franchise for the 2020's.  A healthy Tatis close to last year's production might be a 12/500MM guy!  So how about....

8-10 yr deal as:   8/115 (14.375 MM AAV)    OR  9/140 (15.55 MM AAV)   OR  10/160 (16 MM AAV) .  Buys out 3-5 years of FA, but Tatis is so young he still becomes a FA AT age 29 - 31!  His camp probably pushes towards age 28-29 (<30)

=  $2 MM S.B., $1 MM '20, $2 MM '21, $7MM '22 (Arb yr 1), $12 MM '23, $17 MM '24, $22 MM '25, $23 MM '26, $24 MM '27, then 2 club options of:  $5MM/$25MM '28, $5MM/$25MM '29

The risk of doing this is obvious.  But the risk of waiting is less so:   I believe a healthy Tatis performing at even a 10-15% decline from last year's #'s COSTS the Padres at least 10 MM over the life of an extension... for every month he plays.  His bat & athleticism make him a mortal lock to be a starter SOMEWHERE at 6 of the 8 positions on the field for literally every team in MLB.   The opportunity to lock him in at a truly bargain future price is sooner, not later.

 

I would look at it more simply ... $55MM for Tatis’ remaining 5 control years then $25MM for each FA year bought out and negotiate around that.

One could argue that it is to Tatis’ longer term financial benefit to get to FA sooner than later ... maybe at 26 or 27 so the “buying team” is bidding for his prime production years and paying extra in terms of a 10 year deal knowing the latter years will not be as productive (see Machado, Cabrera, Pujols, ...). Risk and reward balance in a pretty subjective discussion for both the player and the team.

Still would see the Padres waiting until next winter to make their move on buying out FA years ... Tatis still has much to prove.

Let's see how Tatis plays this year before a long term commitment. Half season should not a 7+ contract year make. Love him, don't get me wrong. Defense not to par, but this guy has the talent and ability to be very good with work.

  • Ian Kinsler is slated to play for Israel in the upcoming Tokyo 2020 Olympics.

    Kinsler confirmed the report in a video announcement from Team Israel. This is all assuming the Olympics take place as scheduled this summer. There's already plenty of conversation about a postponement due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Israel is slated to be one of six teams in the Olympic tournament, whenever it does take place. Kinsler turns 38 in June and announced his retirement from MLB this past December after spending the 2019 season with the Padres.

LOL

He won't be playing in the 2020 games as there are no 2020 games....maybe 2021

Wasn't sure where to put this.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/story/2020-04-23/dan-walters-padres-catcher-san-diego-police-dies

He graduated the year before me( he from Santana, me from Henry) I remember being in awe of this kid. He was a helluva baseball player.

RIP Danny.