Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2020, 9:00 am

Quote from sportwarrior on January 27, 2020, 2:45 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 27, 2020, 1:55 pm

Wondering if our lack of interest at beating that "easy to beat" return for Marte has anything to do with our pursuit of Betts?

Hoping this Marte to Dbacks deal means we actually may be close.

Otherwise it seems odd we didn't beat that offer...unless it's his cost factor but we wouldn't have been interested at all if that was the case.

You would think anyway.

 

 

It does feel like that package was easy to beat... on the other hand, the two prospects were the 33rd overall pick last year and the 83rd ranked prospect in baseball this year. That's like a Morejon and maybe an Arias?

Think you ID’d the wrong AZ SS. They traded Peguero (rookie ball prospect) not Perdomo (who I think is the Top 100 guy). Malone the pitcher was also a rookie ball pitcher. So a lot of projection on both and they slotted in on Pitts 2019 Top 30 at only #7 and #8.

Considering Morejon is only a year+ older than Malone but in AA and Arias is close to the same age as Peguero and finished high A .... they probably would be more valued than rookie ball prospects. Basically, IF Preller really wanted Marte ... probably could have gotten it done using a mix of his own low A / rookie ball pieces and not touch the like of Morejon or Arias.

Regardless, seems “light” for Marte ... 2 rookie ball players with “50” ratings. Yet, no other team could / would top that? The GMs are seeing something we don’t I guess.

Quote from onlypads on January 28, 2020, 10:00 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2020, 6:26 am

On MLBTradeRumors "chat" yesterday the writer suggested that Jackie Bradley is a good trade piece (at $11MM) if Boston needed to drop more payroll. We also saw that Margot ($2MM) is potentially an option for Boston in the Betts trade. Most here have given up on Margot ... thinking not much trade value.

This may be a case of past image of Bradley and playing in Boston over shadowing his poor 2019 stats while Margot playing in SD is creating some under valuation if you look at the deeper stats (and v. Bradley). Consider:

dWAR: Margot +7.5 v Bradley +1.6 ... big plus for Margot

v. LHP: Margot .330 v Bradley .213 ... Margot is one of the best hitting CF v LHP

v. RHP: Margot .200 v. Bradley .230 ... both underperform

AWAY: Margot .263 v. Bradley .191 ... neutral comparison give a major plus for Margot

HOME: Margot .200 v. Bradley .261 ... PETCO v Fenway as environment for hitters

If I am a buyer looking for a CF ... Margot's defense and offense away from PETCO would look to me as the far superior option with the advantage of a salary at $2MM / 3 years control v. Bradley's $11MM / 1 year control.

National media is WAY over valuing Bradley (should have non-tendered him) and under valuing Margot at a position were there are not a lot of outstanding CF. Take Margot out of PETCO and he may be one of the better CF in MLB (not a big hurdle).

Very interesting

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 28, 2020, 3:51 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2020, 9:00 am

Quote from sportwarrior on January 27, 2020, 2:45 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 27, 2020, 1:55 pm

Wondering if our lack of interest at beating that "easy to beat" return for Marte has anything to do with our pursuit of Betts?

Hoping this Marte to Dbacks deal means we actually may be close.

Otherwise it seems odd we didn't beat that offer...unless it's his cost factor but we wouldn't have been interested at all if that was the case.

You would think anyway.

 

 

It does feel like that package was easy to beat... on the other hand, the two prospects were the 33rd overall pick last year and the 83rd ranked prospect in baseball this year. That's like a Morejon and maybe an Arias?

Think you ID’d the wrong AZ SS. They traded Peguero (rookie ball prospect) not Perdomo (who I think is the Top 100 guy). Malone the pitcher was also a rookie ball pitcher. So a lot of projection on both and they slotted in on Pitts 2019 Top 30 at only #7 and #8.

Considering Morejon is only a year+ older than Malone but in AA and Arias is close to the same age as Peguero and finished high A .... they probably would be more valued than rookie ball prospects. Basically, IF Preller really wanted Marte ... probably could have gotten it done using a mix of his own low A / rookie ball pieces and not touch the like of Morejon or Arias.

Regardless, seems “light” for Marte ... 2 rookie ball players with “50” ratings. Yet, no other team could / would top that? The GMs are seeing something we don’t I guess.

It does seem light.... also seems like Cherington "capitulating" to some extent that Pirates need time to turn around.  But really the biggest thing is just not many teams interested in an 8-figure 30+ OF.  Puig (not CF, I know) still out there...

Agree those guys HAVE to be lower on prospect totem pole than Morejon, Arias.  From Pads P.O.V. can't add Marte without subtracting MYERS... that cost would have been too much in total for Marte, but as discussed at length COULD conceivably work with Betts b/c it's all tied to the same transaction.

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2020, 4:15 pm

Note that Boston re-signed Moreland LHH 1B/DH for 1 year with an option.

I would think that suggests IF the Betts deal came down as suggested ... Red Sox would opt for Margot over Naylor. Or it suggests they are moving away from the deal.

Moreland will count $3MM v the luxury tax ... sending Boston in the wrong direction. So, maybe that suggests that a deal clearing salary is near.

So without doubt a deal is off or closer or ?????????

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 28, 2020, 9:15 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2020, 4:15 pm

Note that Boston re-signed Moreland LHH 1B/DH for 1 year with an option.

I would think that suggests IF the Betts deal came down as suggested ... Red Sox would opt for Margot over Naylor. Or it suggests they are moving away from the deal.

Moreland will count $3MM v the luxury tax ... sending Boston in the wrong direction. So, maybe that suggests that a deal clearing salary is near.

So without doubt a deal is off or closer or ?????????

Myers 1B vs LHP... LF/CF/RF and occasional DH... Boston likely dumping Betts and JBJ to get under.. So Margot + Myers + Q + Morejon + Hunt?  For Mookie ... JBJ to a CF needy team.. Price and/or Eovaldi harder to move

Quote from JasonE135 on January 28, 2020, 9:22 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 28, 2020, 9:15 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2020, 4:15 pm

Note that Boston re-signed Moreland LHH 1B/DH for 1 year with an option.

I would think that suggests IF the Betts deal came down as suggested ... Red Sox would opt for Margot over Naylor. Or it suggests they are moving away from the deal.

Moreland will count $3MM v the luxury tax ... sending Boston in the wrong direction. So, maybe that suggests that a deal clearing salary is near.

So without doubt a deal is off or closer or ?????????

Myers 1B vs LHP... LF/CF/RF and occasional DH... Boston likely dumping Betts and JBJ to get under.. So Margot + Myers + Q + Morejon + Hunt?  For Mookie ... JBJ to a CF needy team.. Price and/or Eovaldi harder to move

They had a deal worked out, it was only the money that was standing in the way. Myers/Quantrill/Margot/Campusano for Betts. It was just the difference between the Padres paying 1/4 or 1/2 of Myers contract that kept it from happening.

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2020, 5:56 am

Unless I missed an update ... last I saw was a deal was close with the hang-up being the money BUT it was still Margot or Naylor, Quantrill or Lucchesi, an un-identified prospect.

Since then saw reports that Boston wanted Campusano as the prospect ... no indication Preller agreed. Have seen no indication that Boston settled on Margot / Quantrill.

Given the way negotiations go .... if Preller gives a little on the money .... Boston will have to take “less” (from Preller’s view) on the players.

Until a deal is struck have to think all the parts can change.

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2020, 6:17 am

With a month before ST ... hearing that Boston is making a deal difficult because they still want to get LAD to up their offer (and LAD is apparently in on dealing for Betts). Key ... Boston does NOT take on Myers’ contract. LAD has the money ... LAD has the prospects ... Betts takes a WS favorite and makes them better.

So, a good chance a Betts trade is with the LAD. IF it goes this way and when (if) Bryant’s grievance if resolved .... should the Padres pivot to adding Bryant for RF? Offensively probably the same impact as Betts (no so defensively). Still ... would have to get the Cubs to take Myers. Problem.

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2020, 7:26 am

Start the Bryant speculation .... grievance denied ... so 2 years control and via arbitration probably about $45MM.

So maybe a baseline ... Padres get Bryant ... Cubs get Myers, Padres pay down Myers’ salary by $15MM (see Preller’s reported position with Betts) ... making the money equal. Then what level of players would the Padres need to add to get the talent upgrade from Myers to Bryant (note ... defense is probably not that different the value is all offense).

That Margot (Cubs have been wanting to upgrade CF) / Quantrill idea on a Betts deal may work with the Cubs ... but does open a vast set of options.

The 2 years of Bryant ... for me ... has much more value than 1 year of Betts and his superior defense.