Quote from Randy Manese on October 5, 2023, 6:45 pm

You have to like the potential starting rotations in the Padres system all the way down from San Antonio.

Assuming none make the MLB 2024 roster out of Spring Training and none are assigned to EP, where pitchers go to die, here are what the rotations could look like:

San Antonio:  Bergert, Snelling, Iriarte, Mazur, Krob, Kollar

Ft. Wayne:  Lesko, Lizarraga, Haynes, Hawkins, Baez, Rascon

Lake Elsinore:  Lowe, Pinales, Nett, Mendez, Eichelberger, Leija, Martinez, Dickerson, Montgomery and many other candidates who were drafted and didn't pitch last year, signed as undrafted free agents and didn't pitch and those moving up from the ACL

 

Quote from Randy Manese on October 5, 2023, 6:56 pm

In the AFL today, Marsee led off the bottom of the 1st with a HR, followed a few batters later by Pauley who hit his second home run of the season, a 3 run shot to RF.  Are they having fun or what!  Keep it up!  MLB.com has failed to mention any Padres batter so far, so maybe this is the day they'll give them some positive comments.

Update:  Another HR for Marsee in the 8th inning as he goes 3 for 4.  Pinales pitched well over 3 innings only giving up one hit, a solo HR.  Pauley's only hit was that HR.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 6, 2023, 6:53 am

Nice little write up of Marsee's performance from Jim Callis. His first 2 HR game ever.

https://www.milb.com/news/padres-jakob-marsee-has-first-multihomer-game-in-fall-league

Quote from LynchMob on October 6, 2023, 9:22 am

In case you missed it ... some great stories here ... THANK-YOU, David Jay!

https://madfriars.com/2023/10/03/the-graduates-the-padres-prospects-who-made-it-in-2023/

Quote from fenn68 on October 6, 2023, 10:09 am

I am walking the line between getting overly optimistic about Pauley - Marsee - Martorella and being overly cautious about the prospects that were lower round college picks and not ranked high in any ranking but soared up the system in their first full season … and continue to hit in the AFL … but is all the “good” against less than challenging pitching for college types?

Hope for the best … protect against the worst.

Quote from Notmyopic on October 6, 2023, 5:53 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 6, 2023, 10:09 am

I am walking the line between getting overly optimistic about Pauley - Marsee - Martorella and being overly cautious about the prospects that were lower round college picks and not ranked high in any ranking but soared up the system in their first full season … and continue to hit in the AFL … but is all the “good” against less than challenging pitching for college types?

Hope for the best … protect against the worst.

I am not high on Martorella, but Pauley and Marsee(especially Pauley) are becoming increasingly intriguing.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 6, 2023, 7:26 pm

I watched a lot of Ft Wayne and San Antonio games on MiLB this year, particularly looking for the development of Martorella, Marsee, Pauley and, of course, Merrill.  With Martorella, he was carrying about 225 lbs on his 6:01 frame and because he played pretty much every inning of every game, by the time August hit his bat looked decided slower and he was hitting the ball with less impact.  Martorella, however, was consistent throughout the year with a good compact swing playing up his natural strength.   I expect him to show much better at AA next year but I'm not sure he has the ceiling to be a regular at 1b in the majors - he'll need to show even more power and Wolff stadium is one of the harder parks to hit home runs.  If he brings that average into the .290's and hit 20-25 HRs next year with San Antonio, he has a chance; has to avoid hitting too many ground balls since he doesn't have the speed to beat those out.

Marsee and Pauley have better all around games and both really changed their hitting approach for the better, at least this year, at Ft Wayne.  From about mid-June until he went out with a hamstring injury in SA, Marsee was able to hit the ball with more impact resulting in more fly balls and an increase in pulling the ball more; he still, however, is primarily a gap hitter.  He got his HR% up to the high 3's - low 4's, which would give him at least average power (15-20) to go along with a good walk to K ratio (which is the case with all 3 of these guys).    Good defense and his base running makes him very valuable at the MLB level.   Can play any OF spot.

Pauley's season was the most striking as he showed increased aggressiveness at the plate and seemed to increase his bat speed when he reached Ft Wayne.  He hit HR's at a remarkable rate (9.4%) with just a slight bump in his K rate, but when the season ended in SA he still was smashing the ball but at a more realistic HR rate of around 4.8% overall.   He began to crush pitches on the inside part of the plate, resulting in a lot of HRs down the line.  If he can avoid the Cronenworth curse and keep hitting line drives/go opposite enough to keep his BA and RBI bat relevant, it looks like he might have a future as an everyday LF or at least a super utility guy.  He's got good bat to ball skills, like Merrill, so he might have a real chance.

I have all 3, along with Merrill, starting 2024 back in San Antonio.  We shall see what happens over the winter and how each starts the 2024 season - one or more could be a mid-season call-up.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 6, 2023, 8:20 pm

Padres hitters not doing that well in the AFL today - Martorella came up 3 times so far with runners in scoring position and could not get a run home.  Marsee did end up going 2-4 and doubling in a run.  Martorella and Pauley blanked.

Pena pitched better in his 1 inning.  Paplham brought in the 7th inning and showed his wild side and inexperience.  Gave up no hits and struck out 1 but in between walked 2, threw a wild pitch and committed a balk (pitch clock violation) which allowed a run to score.  Got to harness his stuff - needs more time in the minors.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 7, 2023, 10:20 am

Going off of his stats and what I've seen of him I'm pretty high on Marsee. His ceiling might be determined by how much he can improve against lefties. He hit .291/.431/.450 with more walks than strikeouts against right handed pitching. That kind of production would already make him a valuable player on the strong side of a platoon. He only hit .219/.352/.352 against lefties. The disciplined approach still seems to be there. He'll have to make better and more consistent contact to be an everyday player at the MLB level. With what looks like a high floor and the most natural path to playing time among the AA group I'm excited about him.

Pauley is exciting too. Like Randy said it might just come down to finding him a defensive home. There's not much room in the IF at the moment. LF could work, but it would cause a shuffle in the OF. Being the super utility guy (like Randy suggested) that bounces around and let's guys get days off or rotate thru at DH would work too. It seems like they're trying to add some defensive versatility to both his and Merrill's repertoire. The bat looks to be legit. A .900+ OPS with really consistent splits is awesome. He was kind of a sneaky stolen base threat in the minors this year too. Ultimately if his bat forces some defensive adjustments it's a good problem to have.

Martorella really looks like a 1B/DH only type. I still think he has a shot, but he's definitely got the toughest path. I also think we should talk about Castanon more. I didn't watch a ton of minor league games, but I was impressed by what I did see of him. Mostly it's just nice to have a group of guys that seem to be approaching MLB readiness. Seeing some of these guys come up as the 2024 season progresses will be a lot more exciting than the likes of Brandon Dixon and Alfonso Rivas.