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It could happen as early as next year.  Merrill needs at least 1/2 a season in the minors, whether it is in San Antonio or El Paso or a combination of the two.  If he maintains that low K rate (below 15%), gets his walk rate around 8,5-10% and gets his average at least in the 280 range with 750+ OPS, then he should be ready to move up.  He's fine defensively on the left side and could play the OF corners and the right side of the INF if necessary.

If they bring him up, they would want him in to play semi-regularly, so could rotate him through the infield while the regulars DH or he could be one of the OF's if we trade Grisham and/or Soto and sign Jung-hoo Lee.  Although he needs to improve his tracking, Tatis could be moved to CF so the corners may be open for rotation, depending on who is on the roster and how the season is going.

That's my best guess as what could happen in 2024 but there are a lot of IF's involved.  With the focus likely being on pitching in the offseason (don't think we'll land Ohtani), it may be a very interesting off-season for Padres fans with high hopes for a much better season than 2023.

Any word on Austin Nola?

Padres optioned him mid-July ... played a bit in EP (27 AB / 8 games ... but still did not hit) but then has not played since Aug 2 ... still listed on the ACTIVE roster for EP.

IF injured why not on the IL? ... IF not injured why not even some token AB or released? Almost 4 weeks in the twilight zone.

Given his 2023 and the fact he will be 34 next year (not a great age for catchers) ... would think he becomes a Padres' non-tender although he does not have a major salary and there will not be a 40 man roster issue over the winter (at least initially). On the other hand, maybe they are just "resting" Nola to see if he can rebound a little (maybe thinking the beanball from early in the season is an issue) and have him as insurance if they don't re-sign Sanchez or another catcher. Looking more like Campusano will get a long run in 2024 as one of the catchers so the 2nd catcher is at issue ... probably not Sullivan so ???????? (no not Salas in 2024)

 

The Padres have 33 catchers throughout the organization, if you include Romeo Sanabria and a few others that have also played catcher this year and in the past.  That is a very large number and is just a few less than their total number of active outfielders.  With Campusano likely as the #1, don't see them spending big bucks to re-sign Sanchez, but wouldn't rule Sullivan completely given he is a LH hitter and could be spotted to hit against RH pitchers, which he has done well in the minors.  His receiving skills are at least adequate so overall not a complete zero as a back-up candidate; Sullivan can also play OF.  On the other hand, a FA catcher on the cheap might be the ticket as a back-up.

The thing about Nola was that he was having a good spring training until beaned and although physically recovered, never got his stroke back not that he was a great hitter to begin with.  The complaints we had with him last year was he had a tough time throwing runners out and that might have been accentuated with the base stealing incentives applied this year.  On the other hand, the Padres are very loyal to guys like Nola, who like Stammen, were well respected in the club house and leaders of the pitching staff.  This might be the only value he would add to retaining him but that might be enough for a part-time catcher and semi-utility man.   I would non-tender him and then re-sign him to a lesser contract or a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training - don't think he'll have much of a market as a free agent.  Of course, we are all waiting for Salas to develop but realistically, it will be at least 2-3 years down the road and Campy should be able to handle the majority of the catching duties until that time.

Yeh, can see the Stammen comparison creating a loyalty bond. Realistically he only made $2.3MM in 2023 and likely would just resign for the same if the Padres offered without dealing with arbitration. As the #2 catcher (at least in a competition with Sullivan) that is not a big burden and likely less than anyone better they could get via FA.

Might just be strategic to retain Nola / Sullivan (2nd C / AAA) at their low cost and react / change AFTER (IF) they add a better 2nd catcher. Note: given his injury and his 2023 … I would not rule out Nola retiring given he will be 34 next year. Maybe gets a front office / minor league coaching role from the Padres as did Stammen.

Watching Snelling closely today and he's pitching a little differently than he did earlier in the season.  Seems to be trying to get more of his body behind his pitchess and that is causing him to release early with the ball either going outside or high.  Early in the game was pitching behind to most batters and not with the same pace on the mound he had earlier; breaking stuff not as sharp.  Maybe he's reaching his limit in IP; I would be very careful with that golden arm if I were the Padres.   Snelling did seem to get stronger and find his rhythm as the game went longer and is in line for the win tonight.   Don't underestimate the mental toughness of this kid - just needs to build up his strength and stamina to pitch 125 - 150 innings a year.  He could be in San Diego sooner than we anticipate.

For something positive.

I understand the we can only really evaluate a draft after we see draft picks contributing in the ML ... minor league results can be mis-leading. However, in the spirit of hopeful development, have to give a lot of praise to the Padres' scouting / draft in 2022. Keep in mind for these players 2023 is there first full season and that alone is a major transition to professional baseball ... but getting to AA (even for college types) is a major challenge especially as most consider the jump from A ball to AA the most challenging. Consider these 2022 picks now in AA after quality performance in A/A+:

#5 ... Martorella (22) ... .296 BA

#6 ... Marsee (22) ... .250 BA

#13 . Pauley (22) ... .267 BA

Comp ... Snelling (19) ... 1.04 AA  ... amazing for a HS kind in first full season

#2 ... Mazur (22) ... 4.84 ERA but after a strong 2.02 ERA in A+

Then consider #1 Lesko recovering from injury was not a factor and a couple of HS types early in their development

The results after one season ... even if only a couple develop into ML assets ... is playing out to be a great 2022 draft.

Should add some praise for the 2021 draft ... sure Merrill (20) in AA is exciting ... but a couple of lower picks look to have upside in AA: Bergert (23) (6th round ...2.45 ERA) and Castanon (24) (#12th round ... .268 BA).

Not all with make the ML ... fewer will make any major impact ... but getting this potential in AA out of the 2021-22 drafts is impressive and, hopefully, provide some quality low cost support for the 26 man roster in late 2024 or 2025 and start a trend for building a team with homegrown talent.

Will the 2023 draft add to this impressive list with some success out of those lower draft picks?

I just noticed that milb.com is saying that Dillon Head's status is ...

  • Status: Temporary Inactive List

What's up?

Watched the last game he played and he is not injured, probably just physically spent.   Started his career in 100+ heat of Arizona, followed up by Lake Elsinore which also is warm in the summer.   The pitching is likely a lot better than high school and the Complex league, so there have been some struggles at the plate and adjustments to be made.  Probably just needs to sit awhile, although there are only 10 games left in the season unless LE makes it to the playoffs - he can be activated at any time.

FYI, Head is just 3 months younger than Samuel Zavala and close to 2 years older than Ethan Salas, which makes what they did this year all  the more noteworthy.  He's almost certain to be back in LE to start 2024 as their starting centerfielder, so this is just a "get acquainted with the level of competition type of assignment and know what you have to work on during the off-season" to close out the year.   Has good bat to ball skills but needs a little more oomph when he makes contact; his speed can get him that extra base but eventually needs to show some gap power.  Maybe we can see a Marsee-type development by next year if he is as good as the Padres think he can be.

Zavala is off to a brutal start to his Tincaps career. He's 0-27 with 12 Ks since the promotion.

Lesko seems primed for a huge season next year.   He clearly has swing and miss stuff, and keeps flashing dominant stretches of starts.  A full offseason removed from TJ?  Could be good things on the way for him.

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