Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 22, 2019, 10:14 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 22, 2019, 10:05 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 22, 2019, 7:42 am

Might be interesting where (if) he surfaces in the 2020 minors for the Padres.

Not as though the Padres’ AAA/AA currently have a full slate of OF but probably only 4 per level and AAA likely has Olivares, Cordero, Naylor (maybe), Gettys, Kohlway (LHH OF who the Padres have place in Australia for the winter league) in play while AA has Trammell and Ona plus potentially some moves up from LE (J. Rosario, Córdoba, Ornelas, and/or Suwinski) ... remember they are potentially being push up with the FW players pushing up.

I guess this goes for both Gettys and Reed ... at what point to they punt on their unrealized potential and go with the others with maybe lower ceiling but a higher probability of adding value.

 

The only OF I see in entire system that "needs" to advance is Olivares.

AAA:   Naylor, Cordero, Olivares, Gettys

AA:     Reed, Trammell, Ona, Kohlwey

But one other wildcard is your favorite FENN:  Allen Cordoba.  He earned & really developmentally "needs" to advance also; most likely to AA as an OF first utility guy.  When I look at the composition of the MLB roster & likely moves (add & subtract OF), there's a very good chance at least  one of Olivares, Naylor, or Cordero is in MLB... push Kohlwey up to AAA, but Gettys still has value at least as system depth.

I think Head and Mears will be top 10 specs soon.. I really like those 2... FtW in 2019... I also like Tirso Ornelas.. He tweaked his. Swing in AZ and came back strong at LE to end the year.. Dude has a sweet stroke now

Quote from fenn68 on November 22, 2019, 11:42 am

The Padres seem to have adopted a push up approach to challenge their prospects, so I can see the short-season / Rookie players from last year filling the OF needs in FW ... Mears / Head / Malone / along with a few others of that crew.

That of course pushes on promoting the likes of A.Ruiz / Curry / Williams-Sutton / Little / Harris to LE.

That then puts some pressure on moving up J.Rosario / Suwinski /  Ornelas aggressively to AMA.

Essentially forcing some hard decisions on who to cut (they will not all fit if healthy) .... and that returns me to the question as to how long will they stay with an underperforming prospect vs. giving an opportunity to younger upcoming prospect?

 

Quote from Randy Manese on November 25, 2019, 10:21 am

Looking at the current minor league rosters, I don't see anyone who would be included in a trade unless we go deep into lower minors.  Therefore, these are my predictions based on age/previous level and what they showed last year.

El Paso:  Gettys, Kohlwey, Olivares + either Naylor or Cordero, whichever one does not make the team or is hurt and on the IL.  Expect Cordoba to be a swingman playing all over the infield and outfield, much like I Castillo;

Amarillo: Trammell, Ona, Reed and one of the three of Benson, Podorsky, or Easley (whichever one doesn't get released);

Lake Elsinore:  Ornelas, J. Rosario, Curry, Williams-Sutton, Suwinski;

Ft Wayne:  Harris, Little, A. Ruiz, Acosta, Stronach or Carter;

Head, Mears, Junior Perez, Taylor Lomack all in the mix in extended spring training waiting for Trammell, Ona, and Ornelas to show skills ready for promotion or others released for failure to progress.  Fluid situation and can even see E. Ruiz, Guilbe, and Driscoll seeing significant time in the OF.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 25, 2019, 10:43 am

Got to also look at the 10 relatively high rated prospects (not to mention another 5-8 who could "find it" in 2020) who will be Rule V dudes next off-season as potential trade chips now to next off-season.. Led by Arias + Ornelas and Lawson as guys who could push current 40 man roster dudes out or guys that make sense trading now before we face the possibility of losing them next off-season..

Quote from fenn68 on November 25, 2019, 11:09 am

My issue with trading "non-blue chip" but good non-roster prospects ... before you have to ... is that their trade value is virtually zip. Rather take the upside development in 2020 and either get a better trade chip (trade deadline or next winter) or have a quality prospect for the future.

Also, consider the Padres don't really know which ones will be worth protecting next winter until they play another season ... at one point we thought Reed, Estury Ruiz were candidates this year ... not so.

I would expect that with the natural attrition of potential prospects to protect (they will take themselves out of contention) coupled with what could be some natural cleansing of the current 40 man there may not be a problem to worry about yet. Then toss in a couple of multi player for one (or non-roster) ... home free.

Easily see Richards, Yates, Garcia, Kinsler gone via FA .... some DFA/trading of the likes of Wingenter, Reyes, Margevicius, Avila, Espinosa, Ona plus the dealing of at least 2 catchers (with Campusano completing AA in 2020). Then we have not even addressed the culling of the OF clutter.

Could see them easily protecting everyone they really like and still have 40 man flexibility.

Now if in the unlikely scenario that some team actually wants one of these players as the key piece in making a deal ... sure then consider it depending on the deal.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 25, 2019, 11:28 am

My point is after the season Arias had in 2019 he is likely a top 10 Padres spec right now.. Ditto Lawson after AFL maybe just outside 10-15.. Ornelas is already there so sort of selling high

Quote from fenn68 on November 25, 2019, 11:44 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 25, 2019, 11:28 am

My point is after the season Arias had in 2019 he is likely a top 10 Padres spec right now.. Ditto Lawson after AFL maybe just outside 10-15.. Ornelas is already there so sort of selling high

Agree that they are good prospects and that may be an issue next November.

Just right now ... don't think they hold much trade value and there is not upside to trading them now before they actually build up some trade value or IF they really explode as prospects (good chance with both Arias and Lawson) I would actually want to keep them (baring an overwhelming offer) and dump quite a few current 40 man roster players.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 25, 2019, 12:06 pm

Arias is a good example.

It’s a good thing we didn’t trade him last off season.....you don’t want to trade a low level prospect “before” his breakout season.

Of course it goes both ways....Reed was at his peak trade value(still not high) a year and a half ago....now literally none unless he rebounds.

Who’s the Arias prospect this year?

Someone like Jordy Barley?

Quote from Randy Manese on November 25, 2019, 2:15 pm

If we are talking about prospects who have underperformed their prior rankings/expectations, then I nominate the "O" men - Ornelas and Ona.  I expect both will re-establish themselves as highly prized prospects/major trade chips.