Quote from fenn68 on October 31, 2026, 9:11 pm

35 with elbow issues ... medical staff must have had some real concerns and the Padres did not want to take a potentially 2 year $32MM risk.

Still would not rule out a "new contract" with Pivetta but with some more protection for the Padres and maybe incentive based for Pivetta.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 31, 2026, 10:00 pm

I think it's a very strategic move.  If you want to set aside money for King and Morejon, in particular, you have to look at not committing 14 million to an older injury risk SP like Pivetta.  Such a pitcher might not have suitors knocking down his door before 1 December so there is even an outside chance we would sign him if we can't reconnect with King.  Niebla has a great reputation of making borderline or fading pitchers much better so who knows what FA pitcher might find that very attractive on a one-year contract in order to secure to a higher salaried longer contract after signing with the Padres.

I think we will see exactly where the Padres and new ownership is headed in the next 31 days.   And, for the most part, Padres fans will be happy with the direction the team is going.

Quote from fenn68 on November 1, 2026, 3:26 am

Padres still have to deal with three option decisions:

Hart ... CLUB option ... some speculation they will decline the $2.5MM and try to re-sign him at a lower cost

Matsui ... PLAYER option

Peralta ... PLAYER option

Odd situation with the last three in limbo are LHRP ... combine that with Morejon a FA .... that is the entire Padres ML LHRP roster!

At one level I would have said neither Matsui nor Peralta would opt out of good contracts for their production BUT having just read that Emilio Pagan (35 year old RP closer with just an OK ERA of 3.38) declined his $10MM option for 2027 .... not so sure. Not a closer but Matsui is younger ... finished 2026 statistically as one of the best LHRP in MLB ... and a deep need for LHRP around the game.

Matsui and Peralta's calls may be holding up the Padres' call on Hart.

Quote from fenn68 on November 1, 2026, 3:40 am

Should also mention the three remaining MUTUAL options (options that almost never get picked-up by both sides):

Andujar at $8.5MM vs a $2.5MM buyout (net $6MM)

Giolito at $8.0MM vs a $1.5MM buyout (net $6.5MM)

Canning at $5.0MM vs a $1.5MM buyout (net $3.5MM)

So expect all three to be FA next Tuesday with the Padres' payroll having to eat the $5.5MM of buyout money on top of the $5MM buyout owed to King after his opt out.

Quote from fenn68 on November 1, 2026, 4:03 am

Although most expect the new owners to continue spending to produce a contender ... clearly don't know how much more than 2026 and the timing of that spending given all the unknowns surrounding the new CBA rules.

With the departures of King, Pivetta, Morejon, France, Adam, et al the Padres do appear to be positioned to make some moves (at some point) with a clear need to do something to remain a contender. To that end their current "starting points" as projected by Roster Resource:

Cash payroll is at $200MM (assuming the remaining options are exercised) so more likely the starting position will be closer to $170-180MM depending on Matsui and Peralta. Last year it was $215MM.

Luxury Tax level is projected at $217MM vs 2026 at $264MM (second tier penalty and second year). The projection is well below the first tier as set for 2026 but no idea what will happen in the CBA.

To me that suggests that the Padres may make some moves before the CBA ends but not go all in until the new rules for Luxury Tax (or salary cap) are established. Have to worry about more severe penalties for exceeding whatever limits are set ... loss of high draft picks for repeat offenders or even restrictions on future FA signings while over the limit (maybe can only sign FA to one year deals less than $10MM while over). Miscalculation could knock the Padres out of being a contender for years given the big long term commitments in place.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on November 1, 2026, 6:22 am

Concur.  Want to nail down your top 3 free agents and then assemble the rest of the roster from there after the conclusion of the CBA negotiations.  I think we have an idea of what the ballpark number is for King and I believe it's not substantially higher annually than what he would have made next year; the length of the contract is what King is primarily looking for plus a fair market value salary number.  I think somewhere south of 200 million, maybe around 170-175 for the 5 years.

The unknown demands are for Morejon and France, who both have expressed a strong desire to stay in San Diego but that has to come with the caveat that they don't want to be insulted by the offer given them.  Last year, Morejon had his highest salary at 3.9 million; this will be easily doubled and probably looking at a 2-3 year deal that lets him become a free agent again in his early 30's.  Probably be offered an incentive laden contract structured partially on whether he is willing to try to make the move as a SP.  Even given what he's showed so far and his future potential can't see more than 45 million (including incentives) for these 3 years.

For France, a little bit different scenario for a guy who had his career year mostly in his age 32 season.  He's never made more than 7 million per year, so I think the projection of some of almost 17 million per year is high.  I think the Padres are also willing to give him a 3 year contract with easy to reach incentives with a base of 12 million that could reach 15+ million, depending upon his meeting those incentives.

Time will tell but let's do it soon!  GO PADRES!!!!

Quote from Randy Manese on November 1, 2026, 6:39 am

During the lockout, are players on the 40 man roster allowed to play in the Winter Leagues - the Dominican, Venezuela and maybe even in Australia?

Quote from fenn68 on November 1, 2026, 7:03 am

Quote from Randy Manese on November 1, 2026, 6:39 am

During the lockout, are players on the 40 man roster allowed to play in the Winter Leagues - the Dominican, Venezuela and maybe even in Australia?

yes!

Quote from fenn68 on November 1, 2026, 7:24 am

Just hard to guess the contracts for King, Morejon, and France.

Given King's age a "limited" period of success (plus some injury history) was not thinking a mega contract BUT have seen a number of lists that have him the 2nd best SP (behind Skubal) and we know the demand for SP from teams with money. I guess my over/under now sits at 4 years / $30MM AAV ... $120MM.

Morejon I see as getting a surprising high deal. Only 28 and many see him has the best RP on the market with closer projection. I guess my over / under is 4 years / $15MM AAV ... $60MM.

I have the hardest time sizing France's deal. Age plus he is a 1B tends to lower the bids ... combined with his up and down offensive history. My guess there will not be a big demand from other teams also keeping the price down. No sense what his side will demand but a good chance ... if the demand is high ... Padres let him linger in the FA market until after the lockout ends and try to settle on a contract. If France's demands are reasonable to the Padres maybe before the lockout. I guess my over/under is 1-2 years (plus options) / $8-10MM AAV.

Historically Preller likes to set his max deal upfront and if the player does not take it, he is fine with them exploring FA and then negotiate around the initial offer. He should know early the gap between his number and the agent's ... and if  "large" and feels others will pay ... may change priorities on who he signs. All behind the scenes stuff that we will never clearly understand.