Quote from fenn68 on October 27, 2026, 5:13 am

MILW ... TB ... CLEV ... CWS are four of the lowest payroll clubs and all progressed as playoff teams. In a copycat league ... will this encourage more teams to follow the roster construction strategy of these teams?

A few observations:

1. all are young teams for the most part ... virtually no players in their late 30s and even a limited in their mid-30s
2. few long term deals for aging veterans ... most expiring near term signed when in mid-20s
3. long term deals in place were signed when players were just starting (early 20s) ... so comparatively low cost and expiring before they are 30. (sort of like Merrill and Tatis but smaller deals than Tatis).
4. Generally let aging stars go (or trade them) as they get near FA.

I doubt the Padres ... at this stage ... will (or can) adopt this model but might try to minimize additional moves that move them further away. Bogaerts, Machado, and Cronenworth will be an issue for years ... a lot of years as their production decline.

To that end ... more short term deals (1-3 years)? FA "younger". Hold on to internal prospects (if they had any)? Sign Salas to an 8-10 year deal now? Avoid players in their mid / late 30s and their generally higher salaries due to lower productivity and propensity for injury.

Of course there will be some teams that still overspend (LAD for example) but if more teams start thinking like MILW etc ... those non-star veterans will only get jobs if they accept lower salaries ... supply will be high / demand will be down resulting in lower pay.

Have to wonder what that does for the FA markets for France (32), Adam (35), King (31)? Even Morejon (28) as a RP. Shorter than desired deals? Lower AAV? Will we see more veterans added on those 1 year deals in the $1-3MM range?

The playoffs has made the case for not spending big ... not locking into aging players.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 27, 2026, 9:12 am

If MILW eliminates TB today, expect teams to start locking down their potential FA before next MON when all would hit FA. Monday would start a one month free for all (actually not all that "free").

 

Quote from ultratvfan on October 27, 2026, 10:36 am

AJP needs to keep Adam, King, Morejon, Pivetta, Matsui and France to start with.

Quote from fenn68 on October 27, 2026, 1:24 pm

Might this come into play in player selection ...

In the AFL they are testing eliminating (minimizing) OF shifts. Basically define an area OF must start in. What I understand what is defined is more "straight away" and closer to the INF (further from the fence) zone.

Idea is to produce more doubles / triples (excitement) and minimize those frustrating bloop hits. Reward hitters that make good contact. Harder for OF to cover the ground in deep zones.

Potential impact is negative for "Punch and Judy hitters" and a positive for hitters who make solid gap contact.

For pitchers ... might worry about extreme fly ball pitchers (will not get saved by OF positioning deep) and maybe the teams will look more to ground ball pitchers. Based on 2026 for the Padres ... Pivetta, Matsui, and Estrada seem to be more fly ball than ground ball types. Might that potential change impact the Padres retaining them (or limit the contact lengths)?

The analytical staff may have to run a lot of simulations to determine the impact on each pitcher's performance ... and on potential FA signings.

Quote from fenn68 on October 29, 2026, 7:26 am

MLBTR has published a list of their speculation on the TOP 40 trade candidates plus a list of other potential candidates by team.

Padres had none in the TOP 40. Only two in the others category: Fermin and Matsui.

Of course trading either depends on the return ... neither are all that expensive for their production and both come with control beyond 2027. So some appeal to other teams but at the same time no need by the Padres to trade them just to get rid of them.

As I suggested before ... think it is a toss-up in trading Fermin vs Campusano if buying into Salas as the #1. Fermin is a tad more expensive but has that extra year of control. Who is traded may be purely a decision based on the "best return". Note: watch out for a deal with NYY ... "excess" good SP ML ready and a need for a RHH catcher.

Matsui ... again only if the return justifies it.  Matsui did have a very good season (especially 2nd half) and if they don't resign Morejon not much LHRP remains. Not too expense and has control but can debate the value proposition. In my previous post ... the potential for the new OF rules (plus his deeper analytics are not as impressive as ERA) may make him a move before his production tanks. Doubt he can land a good SP ... maybe a near term prospect or maybe in a package yields someone to help in 2027.

Quote from fenn68 on October 29, 2026, 7:44 am

Right-hander Michael King has declined his 2027 player option, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. He is now a free agent. Like the other 2026-27 free agents, King has a five-day window where he can only sign with his previous club, which is the Padres in King’s case. Those players will be free to sign with any club at 4:00 pm Central time on November 2.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 31, 2026, 6:58 am

With SP being a critical need could (should) we see the Padres strongly pursue the two better Japanese pitchers coming over for next season.

Part of that thinking is that most of the better FA are older and if not probably in line for a longer / expensive contract. Note King is 32 and Pivetta will be 34.. As a team key Padres are are older and expensive (and will get older and less prodctive) ... think Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, and Musgrove. Not sure want to add another expensive aging player that would be an issue in a couple of years. Add to that if the current CBT' approach remains basically in tact with stronger penalties (e.g. loss of draft choices, future FA limits) adding expensive players on longer term deals could be a real problem in future years. Padres almost certainly would exceed the CBT limits if they are anywhere near the 2026 levels.

The two Japanese pitchers ... Taira (26) and Itoh (28) are potentially mid to lower rotation arms and as such should come at a lower price tag than the domestic FA. For the Padres that is a need and they would add some "youth" in the near term to an aging team. Good transition to the A ball prospects in the system in a few years.

Taira has the big FB and a plus breaking ball is the better of the two ... and at 5'8 / 220 would be fun to see and for some teams a risk due to size. Itoh is a lower 90s FB but has a Darvish array of different pitches ... wonder if given that he may be influenced by Darvish's presence with the Padres?

IF the Padres pick up Pivetta's option and re-sign King ... Taira and Itoh would be good candidates with Vasquez, Musgrove (if healthy), Brito for the mid to bottom rotation options and create some depth during the season for injuries (under performance) or even bullpen depth if the don't resign Adam or Morejon.

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 31, 2026, 8:00 am

I’m guessing we bring back Buehler…..pick up Pivettas option (no brainer),and either sign King or bring in two other mid level FA Starters.

Soroka/Bubic/Singer ?

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 31, 2026, 12:39 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 31, 2026, 8:00 am

I’m guessing we bring back Buehler…..pick up Pivettas option (no brainer),and either sign King or bring in two other mid level FA Starters.

Soroka/Bubic/Singer ?

 

 

On Pivetta ... the $14MM club option for 2027 seems a must (even taking the injury risk) but keep in mind that also comes with the reinstatement of the player option for 2028 at $18MM. If he is good in 2027 he will opt out but if he is bad he will opt in for 2028 and that may further hamper building a roster in 2028 ... especially if the new CBT rules become an issue. He will be 35 I believe in 2027 ... so likelihood for injury / decline in performance is a real concern.

On Buehler ... no idea what Buehler will pull down as a contract but statistically was overall a "below average" SP last season ... so what will be the demand by other organizations? Maybe an incentive laden one year deal with forward options?

I see two FA seasons coming ... before Dec 1 were the focus in on the "key" pieces that teams believe they can afford no matter what the new CBA brings and the after the new CBA is signed that scrabbles for he rest.

If the Padres focus on King, Pivetta, Morejon, and France now ... they will effectively bring back the core of the 2nd best record in the NL in the second half of 2026 so not really going to need all that much to replace the ineffective Mize, Ray, Canning, Giolito, or Buehler. That is good because just bring those four back (combined with built-in contract increases and arbitration will increase the payroll by maybe near $50MM ... well into the penalty level of CBT (unless it changes).

Padres may go to the trade option (using ML RP and a catcher) to further enhance SP (NYY would be a fit) or LF/DH. Otherwise they do the scramble for low cost bargains (as they did with Taylor, Harris, France, Buehler who all were key contributors).