Quote from fenn68 on October 22, 2026, 6:23 am

There is a window from 5 days after the World Series and the end of the CBA (Dec 1) where FA can be signed ... if not nothing until the new CBA is in place.

No idea how that impacts both teams and players strategies as FA.

One view is that for both teams and players is to get something done in November and get some security settled.

The alternative is a wild scramble in what may be a very short spring training leading into a short season. FA have to get concerned about getting signed in a timely manner (and for a desired salary) while teams may not be able to land FA that fill critical needs to start the season. Would expect a lot of one year deals (2027) but what will be perceived a mix of "overpay" from the contenders and "underpay" from non-contenders as they go with what they have and/or wait for the leftovers desperate to sign. The longer the lockout ... the more dramatic the separation.

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 22, 2026, 6:26 am

Unfortunately I think Morejon will be a victim of the need for starting pitching.

He will get a deal somewhere in the 4/$50 mil and with the BP still being a strength even without him I just don't see how we can manage to keep him.

Guess we have to be OK with that if it means being able to keep King & France and find another "quality
Starter.

I'd like that guy to be Mike Soroka.

He's finally healthy again and when he is he puts up excellent numbers and probably won't break the bank considering that injury history.

Maybe Brandon Woodfruff on a short deal....or Kris Bubic maybe?

Could use a Lefty

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 22, 2026, 7:49 am

Morejon will be interesting. Think you are underestimating his new contract given his age (28) and the national media he may be the best "closing" option on the market then looking at what the Hadar's et al have received.  Thinking more like 4 years in the $72MM range ($18MM AAV).

If Morejon leaves ... not sure that I see the back of the pen all that strong after Miller. LHRP are likely Matsui and and even older Peralta ... maybe Hart. Not strong. RHRP Rodriguez, Estrada, Morgan were up and down. Good set-ups to get to Miller and Morejon but not confident they are ready to step up to the #2 end of game role behind Miller (and Miller should not be closing every game lest his arm falls off).

A dilemma for Preller considering no clear understanding that any quality FA pitching will sign at a salary that "fits". I guess I am in the camp of "overpaying" for the quality of King and Morejon ... two you know ... to first solidify the pitching then scramble at the low end to fill the blanks.

Do think they will also make a run at Buehler ... but good chance he get priced out.

Quote from fenn68 on October 22, 2026, 1:48 pm

Just as a mind set ... consider that the Padres from July 1 to the end of the season had the 2nd most wins in the NL going 48-30 (MILW had 51 wins).

So, if they just re-sign King, Morejon, and France while exercising Pivetta's club option the core of this successful run is basically in tact. Not really losing much via FA that contributed significantly over that period except Buehler. At that point Preller could work on the lower end options to fill out the roster.

We shouldn't forget that from the start of the season thru June 30 the Padres had a 43-41 record (11th in wins in the NL) as they struggled through both Tatis and Merrill not near their expected performance levels and some questionable starting from the likes of Marquez and Canning.

Padres are not that far away from repeating (getting better) with the core three re-signings. Also, would not discount the value to the fans of returning those three vs the unknown of a random FA signing.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 22, 2026, 2:17 pm

I definitely am in the "overpaying" for King and Morejon camp - both will be essential to our success in the 2027 season no matter how long or short it is.  Both want to stay but there is a big difference in what I believe each wants.

For King, he wants security over a longer term than just next year and probably salary enough to show that he is valued as a #1 even though he wouldn't likely be a #1 on many other top tier teams.  If we give him a 5 year contract that averages 34 million (i.e, a 170 million dollar commitment), I think he will re-sign.  He's already scheduled to make 30 million next year, so either it could be an extension from there or tear up the current contract and start this year (or even start next year).  This should make him a Padre for the rest of his career and hopefully he still has a lot of mileage on his arm and takes good care of his shoulders.

For Morejon, he has to look both short term and long term.  Physically, and tied to it financially, is making so many appearances plus warming up so many times during a season the best for his career, even if he becomes a closer, or does he begin that transition to a SP, where SP (even just above average ones typically make more than RPs.  Does pitching in only 25+ games per year at 5+ innings per year keep his arm fresher and put him in less danger for a serious arm injury.  Since he will only be 28 next year, Morejon can just do a 3 year deal that is tailored to whichever way his career moves.  I think the bump to 2027 won't be that high but for 2028 and 2029, we're probably talking over 10 million+ per year guaranteed.  Likely dropping Adam plus Peralta and Matsui have just one more year of options, so money is opening up for a younger bullpen and fortunately, there are some impressive arms in the farm system that could fill bullpen roles in the next couple of years.  I say Morejon agrees to double his salary to approximately 8 million in 2027, 10 in 2028 and 12 in 2029, for a package of 30 million over 3 years.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 22, 2026, 2:18 pm

By the way, I'm thinking that Buehler will stay with the Padres if he gets a competitive offer but that offer will likely have to be under 10 million per year.  Let's not forget that if Darvish retires before the 2027 season and Musgrove retires the year after, then that makes a lot of money available to pay these salary increases for King and Morejon (and maybe even squeeze another year out of Pivetta at a reasonable salary).

Quote from fenn68 on October 23, 2026, 2:29 am

Quote from Randy Manese on October 22, 2026, 2:18 pm

By the way, I'm thinking that Buehler will stay with the Padres if he gets a competitive offer but that offer will likely have to be under 10 million per year.  Let's not forget that if Darvish retires before the 2027 season and Musgrove retires the year after, then that makes a lot of money available to pay these salary increases for King and Morejon (and maybe even squeeze another year out of Pivetta at a reasonable salary).

Offsetting those departures in part are major built in contract increases for Machado, Tatis, and Merrill that continue for years. This is where the previous backloading of contracts becomes an issue.

Quote from fenn68 on October 23, 2026, 2:42 am

Probably should have a re-signing of Adam (at a "reasonable" price) on the radar.

He is a 35 year old set-up RP who had a shoulder issue that put him on the IL later in the season (but activated late) and over the season delivered a decent 2.62 ERA but only 36 games. All that probably does not get him a "major" contract.

However, Padres do like him (both as a set-up man and a quality person) plus consider his previous seasons: 1.93 ERA (25); 1.95 ERA (24); 2.98 (23); 1.56 ERA (22) ... all season averaging about 65 games.

If signed ... maybe a more reliable set-up man for Miller allowing Rodriguez, Estrada, and Morgan to further develop in the ML but in a less critical role. Alternatively, given the need for RP in the ML ... maybe one becomes a trade chip (or piece of a bigger trade).

He had a $6.7MM deal for 2026 (1 year to avoid arbitration) ... hard to see him topping that going forward and maybe less.

Quote from fenn68 on October 23, 2026, 3:00 am

Another potential roster decision surrounds Sheets. He is expected to get just over $6MM in his final ARB for 2027 (outside chance the new CBA reduces control to 5 years and Sheets becomes a FA). He is frankly a platoon player vs RHP and marginal defensively as a 1B/LF.

IF the Padres resign France he will be the full time 1B relegating Sheets to DH/LF platoon but have to consider Harris in LF as the LHH option plus he has more versatility if the roster is 12 for position players. Can the Padres afford to keep platooned LHH DH with limited defensive skills for $6MM or be better off using that $6MM on other roster improvements (i.e. pitching)?

Non-tender? Trade? Release? ... a fan favorites and has his productive moments but what is best for the overall roster? Keep in mind that Sheets will be a FA in 2028.

I would not under estimate the impact if they choose (if an option) to go 14 pitchers / 12 position players and the impact on needing to have versatile position players. A potential logic for 14 pitchers strengthens if the lockout last deep into the season and a "short" ST ... SP are not likely to be pushed deep into games and an extra arm in the pen will minimize potential burnouts / injuries from over use.

Tough call here.