Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 12, 2026, 12:56 pm

There are a lot of questions to be answered this offseason. How much are the new owners willing to spend and how much will they be allowed to spend? How much do AJ and company believe in the current core? Is Joe Musgrove going to be able to return as a starter? What is Yu Darvish's status moving forward?

The new owners seem like they're ready to spend. They've been talking about being "all in" and the players so far seem united in rejecting any proposal that includes a salary cap. That would all seem to bode well for us. They're going to have to spend heavily to fill out the roster and be competitive again.

I'm not sure we can expect much of a bounce back from Bogaerts or Machado at this point. I also think it's very unlikely that they can find a way to move either of them. Tatis and Merrill will be the guys that have to carry the load. That leaves Cronenworth as the guy that I think they look to move.

I'm going to operate under the assumption that Musgrove is going to be able to figure out the recovery process he needs to work as a starter. I'm also going to assume that Darvish retires or stays on the restricted list.

Looking at the players we have under control for 2027 that I expect to stick around I have the payroll around 200m. Starting pitching should be the major focus. I think we'll need to find 2 good starters and some depth types at a minimum. 3 would preferable. Lineup wise we'll need to find something at 1B whether it's France or someone else. Then I think you would also like to find an OF and upgrade at 2B if possible. The bullpen also seems to always be a point of focus for AJ.

Looking at our own free agents I would try to bring back King on a 3-4 year deal somewhere in the 20-25m a year range. I would probably offer France something like 2/25m. It's hard to know how to value someone coming off of a career year at 32 after 3 straight down seasons. Morejon gets the qualifying offer and I would try to bring him back on a 4 or 5 year deal with a salary in the high teens annually. I would probably offer Laureano a low salary incentive laden prove it deal. I might try to bring Rengifo back on a cheap 2 year deal too. I'm also curious to see how much his post deadline run with us hurt Mize's market. It wouldn't be popular, but if he ends up having to sign a prove it deal I would consider it.

On the outside free agent market if they could move Cronenworth I would love to see them make a run at Brandon Lowe. I think the lineup could really use a lefty bat with some pop and he would be a great fit. I also really like Seiya Suzuki. On the pitching side I'm intrigued by Kaima Taira. If we could somehow add 1 big bat and 1 good arm while bringing back King, Morejon and France it would be a pretty great offseason. It would take a pretty massive increase to payroll to do it though. Our the new owners up for it?

Quote from Randy Manese on October 12, 2026, 1:26 pm

Now comes the trickier part of constructing both the 13 man pitching staff and the pitchers to be placed on the 40 man roster.  Ideally, we have 5 SP and a closer, at least two high leverage RPs which leaves 5 slots for long relief/spot start/high leverage pitchers out of the bullpen.  In constructing this staff, we have to make assumptions that the Padres will be able to get together with key members of the staff and will, try, resources and new CBA permitting, to land a prominent SP by free agency or trade.

SP (5):  King, Pivetta, FA, Buehler, Vasquez  (Will add Haynes and Gutierrez to 40 man but not ready for prime time) - Musgrove fits somewhere but can't be counted as a regular rotation piece.

Closer (1):  Miller (no one ever close but several pitchers could close if necessary)

High Leverage RP (2): Morejon and Estrada (if latter is healthy, otherwise Rodriguez)

Remainder of staff  (5): Vasquez, Adam, Matsui, Musgrove and Peralta (Morgan and Rodriguez have options and for the latter it is just to determine if Musgrove and Adam have anything left.  If not, Rodriguez makes the opening 13).  Padres would for Peralta to opt out, but he'll probably won't, so might have to trade him.  Would really like to see more of Brito and risk losing him if not on 26 man.  Hart had some good patches of work but would be hard pressed to put him on 26 man - he has no options remaining.  Hoeing, if he can still pitch, will be working rehab to see if he can contribute - he has an option remaining.  Don't see a role for many of these veteran pitchers and if Padres do land a top FA SP, it might make the decision easier on how to construct a bullpen.  Lots of moving parts here but if we get King and a healthy Morejon back , we can work around the rest of the staff.

FA - probably can't get Skubal, anybody else that is at least a #3 in a rotation?  How about any Japanese pitchers coming out (Itoh?).

Maybe th Padres find someone another team has given up on, sign him to a minor league deal, and then he blossoms under Niebla and staff - at least we can hope!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 12, 2026, 10:19 pm

Random thoughts:

based on the existing returning roster and their contracts plus arbitration decisions if they resign King, France, and Morejon the Padres will have a substantially increased payroll that would probably push them already into the top five payrolls in MLB.

we don’t know what the CBA holds and even if they don’t approve a salary cap, they may add some very strict penalties for exceeding the various thresholds. Padres are already over two seasons in a row so a third one could be very costly maybe in international spending or draft picks. Something to consider if trying to push the payroll even higher than it will already be by signing expensive free agents.

King should get a contract larger than most are thinking. Not a lot of depth in starting pitching on the free agent market. Basically he is locked into a current contract that guarantees him $58 million over two years. So I would expect a four year deal with with an average salary near $30 million. I know he likes San Diego but probably would only concede a little in pay for that right versus probably an offer from an East Coast club near his home.

I think Darvish will take a shot at pitching contracts not too big but it’s more about him wanting to pitch than about the money and that might get him back. Don’t think the Padres would object to that just because even at his age, they lack alternative pitching.

don’t think they’ll try to trade Cronenworth partly because of no takers but his contract is now down to $12 million and my guess is you’re not going to find a better second base on the free agent market that’s going to make substantially less than that so that money can be used for other players.

 

Quote from ultratvfan on October 15, 2026, 2:15 pm

Here some top FA starting pitchers. Maybe we can get one of them:

Tarik Skubal - (30) - not likely and too expensive, but you never know in baseball. We will see what F&J will do.

Drew Rasmussen (31) – $20MM club option with a $500K buyout

Shota Imanaga - (33)

Brandon Woodruff - (33)

The Padres could look something like this: King, Pivetta, Musgrove, Buehler or Vasquez + one of these

Here is a full list of all free agents: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/08/2026-27-mlb-free-agents.html