Quote from fenn68 on October 15, 2025, 9:46 am

I guess we should not rule out the Padres picking up Hart's $5MM option ... especially IF Darvish is out and signing King is uncertain, $5MM is not going to get much on the FA market. Maybe he can battle Sears for the 5th SP or adds a LH pitcher to the pen to free up Morejon to convert to SP.

No illusion he is a great option ... but he at this point maybe a reasonable option at that price point. He did have some decent work out of the pen after he returned from EP (Also some not so decent).

Always a play on alternatives in hand and not betting they can find some unknown better / cheaper. No idea after seeing him in 2025 and a couple of months of Sears, what the Padres think of either for 2026. Possible if the keep Hart ... at some point Preller can deal one for some bench help ... LHP even at their level have value.

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 15, 2025, 1:20 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on October 15, 2025, 8:12 am

Some of the low scoring came earlier in the season when counting on the likes of Maldanaldo, Heyward, Joe, and others and Merrill missing a good portion of the 1st half as well. Some of that was fixed at the deadline with the acquisition of Laureano and Fermin. When looking at the starting 8 defensive positions, Laureano, Merrill, Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Crone, Sheets, and Fermin that is a really good start. Sure we need to add some depth; however, that starting 8 is a great base. Get Diaz for DH/1B with Sheets and that is a pretty good 9. Then hopefully Campusano can actually hit and that gets you to 10 position players. Bring back Iglesias, thats 11. Then need another back up INF and a back up OFer. The last 3 should not be that expensive.

Then as we all have mentioned bring back King, so you have King, Pivetta, Musgrove, and Vasquez. I have not given up on Sears, lets see what time with Niebla during ST can do for him.

Until we hear different we have to assume Darvish is in the rotation.

King/Pivetta/Musgrove/Darvish/Vasquez

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 15, 2025, 1:59 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 15, 2025, 1:20 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on October 15, 2025, 8:12 am

Some of the low scoring came earlier in the season when counting on the likes of Maldanaldo, Heyward, Joe, and others and Merrill missing a good portion of the 1st half as well. Some of that was fixed at the deadline with the acquisition of Laureano and Fermin. When looking at the starting 8 defensive positions, Laureano, Merrill, Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Crone, Sheets, and Fermin that is a really good start. Sure we need to add some depth; however, that starting 8 is a great base. Get Diaz for DH/1B with Sheets and that is a pretty good 9. Then hopefully Campusano can actually hit and that gets you to 10 position players. Bring back Iglesias, thats 11. Then need another back up INF and a back up OFer. The last 3 should not be that expensive.

Then as we all have mentioned bring back King, so you have King, Pivetta, Musgrove, and Vasquez. I have not given up on Sears, lets see what time with Niebla during ST can do for him.

Until we hear different we have to assume Darvish is in the rotation.

King/Pivetta/Musgrove/Darvish/Vasquez

 

Actually have to assume King opts out ... so maybe the working assumption is Pivetta, Musgrove, Darvish, Vasquez, and (Sears or Waldron or Hoeing or ????)

Preller is going to talk with Darvish very soon ... so that may clarify his status (at least to Preller) before FA starts.

King is the trickier piece ... Preller likes to let his pending FA test the market and most agents also want to test the market and that results in somewhat a delay in resolving King's future. He will get a QO from the Padres and that may hurt his FA status when coupled with the 2025 injury. Of course King may accept the QO at $22MM (but unlikely).

Still, Preller needs resolution soon so he can formulate his moves during the winter ... King signing takes up payroll space but King not signing swings a bigger need for SP (a very limited pool of quality and that pool is expensive with zero guarantee that Padres would be their top choice).

Dealing with the managerial situation and maybe some coaching decisions over the next three weeks along with the player decisions puts a lot of pressure on Preller.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on October 15, 2025, 4:50 pm

The projected arbitration number for Sears is 3.5M.  Both Sears and Hart struggled as SP with the Padre but Sears has a much more established track record.  Don't think we would have both in the starting rotation, so why pick up the option on Hart at 5M when you can get Sears for 3.5?  Further, don't think the market for Hart will be very large even with his small sample size success as a RP.

If Hart becomes a Free Agent, don't see him commanding more than 2M with possibly some incentives.  I say buyout Hart and prioritize the "savings" of not signing him elsewhere.   If Cortes is willing to come back on a 5M or under prove you can still pitch contract, I would take that gamble over Hart, however, Cortes is likely to garner an offer in the 7-8M range despite his injuries and a poor performance year.

I disagree with Fenn in that I think Preller can find someone to plug into the back end of the rotation for under 5M that will be at least as effective as Hart would be; Preller knows how to identify pitching talent upside so crossing my fingers on someone better.  What about Michael Soroka or even ex-Pad Joey Lucchesi?  The bar is not that high to get someone better that is potentially better than Hart.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 15, 2025, 5:14 pm

I think there will be a Darvish decision and a new manager announcement before that 5 day pause after the World Series after which free agency begins.  Regarding the latter, while it does not matter to some free agents, if the new manager is able to hang onto Niebla and staff, that might make a difference to someone like King.  I'm thinking Servais has the inside track over Flaherty.  Both of these guys will be in demand but the Padres vacancy has to be very appealing, so I'm thinking neither will sign elsewhere until after the Padres' opening is decided.

Quote from fenn68 on October 15, 2025, 6:34 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on October 15, 2025, 5:14 pm

I think there will be a Darvish decision and a new manager announcement before that 5 day pause after the World Series after which free agency begins.  Regarding the latter, while it does not matter to some free agents, if the new manager is able to hang onto Niebla and staff, that might make a difference to someone like King.  I'm thinking Servais has the inside track over Flaherty.  Both of these guys will be in demand but the Padres vacancy has to be very appealing, so I'm thinking neither will sign elsewhere until after the Padres' opening is decided.

Padres job may be appealing to most manager candidates but if another makes an offer (and they are not going to wait until the candidate sees if he gets a deal team from the Padres) puts the candidate in the position of taking an offer in hand or losing it and then MAYBE get the Padres offer. He takes the offer in hand.

However, that may not be a concern of Preller ... he seems to rarely lock in on one option and has multiple options he deems "close" and if he loses one he is OK with the other. Just not going to rush the selection process.

The one scenario that could be an issue ... if some of the current coaches get job interviews with other teams as Manager ... probably not an issue with most but if one is Niebla that may be different.

Might linger to the GM meetings or even to the Winter Meetings ... the new guy would have only "marginal" input to the Preller decisions.

Quote from fenn68 on October 15, 2025, 6:49 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on October 15, 2025, 4:50 pm

The projected arbitration number for Sears is 3.5M.  Both Sears and Hart struggled as SP with the Padre but Sears has a much more established track record.  Don't think we would have both in the starting rotation, so why pick up the option on Hart at 5M when you can get Sears for 3.5?  Further, don't think the market for Hart will be very large even with his small sample size success as a RP.

If Hart becomes a Free Agent, don't see him commanding more than 2M with possibly some incentives.  I say buyout Hart and prioritize the "savings" of not signing him elsewhere.   If Cortes is willing to come back on a 5M or under prove you can still pitch contract, I would take that gamble over Hart, however, Cortes is likely to garner an offer in the 7-8M range despite his injuries and a poor performance year.

I disagree with Fenn in that I think Preller can find someone to plug into the back end of the rotation for under 5M that will be at least as effective as Hart would be; Preller knows how to identify pitching talent upside so crossing my fingers on someone better.  What about Michael Soroka or even ex-Pad Joey Lucchesi?  The bar is not that high to get someone better that is potentially better than Hart.

Don't disagree on your view of Sears and Hart ... and picking up Hart's option is very unlikely. However, we don't know a couple of considerations: 1) what the Padres see in either one; 2) value of keeping some alternatives in had IF neither Darvish nor King return.

Yeh, expect Preller to land a couple of other FA options but there will be completion and just might not land who they want to not only start but to provide some depth option for injury, bad performance.

So, unlikely but circumstances may make it "possible".

Quote from fenn68 on October 16, 2025, 4:01 pm

Wouldn't draw any firm conclusions but as the 2026 Padre offense might be optimistic with the returnees given how they performed in the last two months of the season ... consider wRC+ in the last two months vs the first four months:

144 v 103 ... Merrill

131 v 130 ... Tatis

128 v 114 ... Cronenworth (better than given credit for)

127 v ---- ... Laureano

120 v 104 ... Sheets

96 v 106 ... Bogaerts

76 v 141 ... Machado (clearly an aberration with a first four months norm)

75 v ---- ... Fermin

152 v 124 ... Johnson

That equates to an above average offense ... first 9.

------------ who is lost - helped in the stretch / less early ----

112 v ---- ... O'Hearn (not as impactful as expected)

97 v 110 ... Arraez

107 v   63 ... Diaz

89 v   67 ... Iglesias

------------ those gone early - no loss -------

Wade (69), Maldonado (62), Lockridge (53), Heyward (40), Gonzalez (38), Gurriel (3), Joe (-63)

So, that first returning 9 is strong and replacing the production of the departed (actually improving it) for the bench should be relatively easy without spending major dollars. Might push some money on at least one
decent bat to serve as the 9th hitter (over Johnson) ... but the starting point is good.

Quote from fenn68 on October 17, 2025, 12:17 am

MLBTradeRumors has a piece on Nick Castellanos and the PHILS. Apparently the PHILS are considering releasing him or trading him for a "nominal return" and the other team taking $3-5MM of his $20MM contract for 2026 (then a FA).

An option for the Padres? First he is one of the worst fielders in the league ... so a RH DH only ... had a underwhelming offensive season yet did hit 17 HR and 72 RBI. Some conflict with the PHILS' manager after being taken out of the OF for defensive purposes (so maybe an attitude issue).

Padres would like a power bat ... and for only about $5MM in salary and a "nominal" player return for one year might makes sense. Think the PHILS could use RP and that is the one area the Padres have depth to deal from ... so a match if they can settle on who is "nominal". Maybe in the Reynolds / Marinaccio range plus a lottery ticket minor leaguer. Maybe to balance money, Padres trade them Matsui and just take the offset money on Castellano ... both teams stay the same on money by dealing two underperforming players while addressing needs.

Guessing trade partners for one year of an aging under perming DH are very limited (if any) so if Preller steps in a good chance he can land him cheaply. Or they could wait for PHIL to release him (he will not get claimed on waivers) and try to sign him as a FA for league minimum with PHIL eating the rest of his contract. How much would the Padres give up (money / players) to avoid the risk of another team trading for him or as a FA selecting another team.

One to watch.