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2025-26 Offseason thread
#731 · February 20, 2026, 9:24 am
On the other hand, Castellanos knows that there are not a whole lot of teams beating a path to his door to give him the opportunity San Diego is giving him. If he fails in San Diego, he might catch on with another team who is desperate to put a body in the DH/RF hole in the line-up but Castellanos career may be at an end, certainly the big money days are gone. I think he will make an honest effort to be bring that slugger profile we need off the bench/sometimes in the line-up to give us a chance to win games when we are behind. I'm hoping he finds his stroke but never sets foot on the field.
If we compare Castellanos to last year's two older signees (Gurriel and Heyward) and to France, the offensive stats indicate he is probably the best of the four. Gurriel, at age 40, was clearly washed up and had a -140 OPS from his career numbers over the prior two years. Heyward, at age 35, had a resurgence (particularly in 2023) that made him a decent signing for part-time duty because he still had some defensive chops. Unfortunately, a series of injuries ended his career on the downside despite him being a huge positive presence in the clubhouse.
France, at age 31, has shown more of a decline from his OPS and SA over the last two years than Castellanos. I know France won a GG at 1b last year, but honestly he was never known to be a GG performer in the field before last year. Castellanos, at age 34, was down about 50 points from his career OPS and is on the downside of his career, however, he stilled slugged in the 400+ area which is something we didn't have outside of Manny, Taty and Sheets most of the year. If he can give us something like Sheets did in 2025, I think that would be a valuable contribution for pennies on the dollar (before pennies are on their way out).
France is a high-character guy but with Andujar in the fold, I think he has a lesser chance to be on the 26 man than Castellanos. FYI, Andujar has played a total of 44 games at 1b in minor/major league career; Campusano 25; Sheets 415 (plus another 162 in college); Song 85; France 825; Cronenworth 259; and Castellanos a big 0.
#732 · February 20, 2026, 10:35 am
Would not say Castellanos does not have a shot ... but just as easy to think he can be bumped in ST if not producing.
Sheets is getting 1B for at least 75% of the starts if only vs RHP. Can't see anyone but Laureano working in LF pure on defensive perspective plus he hit better that the alternatives last season. Andujar would sit at DH (not great defense anywhere but probably. better than Castellanos).
So ... baring any unforeseen injuries and the like ... that "last" player on the 26 man is maybe a 150-200 AB guy playing limited time. So, maybe for the benefit of the team over a full season, they shape that role differently than a one dimensional DH on the downside of his career. May not be France, may have something to do with how Sheets looks vs LHP, and very likely may have to do with a ST add via trade / waiver claim.
For he has to prove it in ST ... not linger like Gurriel, Heyward, Joe, et al if a decent alternative materializes.
Of course I have my bias but less worried about RHH power for 200 AB than a legit OF (or SS) to support a significant injury if a regular goes down. No desire for Sheets, Andujar, or Castellanos in the OF and little desire for Cronenworth at SS with an unproven Song at 2B. One roster slot with multiple "needs" that can't be filled by only one player ... not easy call.
#733 · February 21, 2026, 6:39 am
Maybe to shape think on LF options considering defense. Using FRV (sort of wRC+ for defense) consider covering the past 3 seasons:
Comparative high bar: Tatis (+23) and Merrill (+15) then
Laureano (-2)
Andujar (-6)
Sheets (-12)
Castellanos (-34)
So, no plus options defensively for LF but at least both Laureano and Andujar are near "average" ... plus looking at their wRC+ for that timeframe about the same near "average". Should be clear they are the two LF options and both could handle RF if Tatis needs a rest at DH. As needed both can be DH options.
Should also suggest keeping Sheets out of LF baring an emergency and keep Castellanos out of the OF at all costs (stats confirm the commentary by the PHIL reporter).
If Johnson makes the 26 man (he should for CF sub and pinch running alone) then probably any further upgrades need not be in the OF. So, with a bench of Andujar, Johnson, Song, and Campusano ... only one position player roster slot open for competition ... other than individual performances in ST would think some debate on which skill sets best help the roster over the course of the season. Castellanos may have the inside track but not convinced (of course, need an alternative that may not be easy to find at this point).
#734 · February 21, 2026, 8:13 am
Fielding Run Value in Runs above average (FRV) where average is zero, can be looked at in a number of ways, kind of like WAR, i.e., cumulatively over a career, for a specific season and/or for a specific position. For example, I went to Fangraphs and they had Tatis at -2 for 2025 in CF/-3 in CF for career; 9 in RF for 2025 and 24 for career; and total OF of 9 in 2025 and 21 for his career - Tatis has never played LF in the majors.
For Laureano, taking the numbers from Fangraphs we've seen a general FRV decline over the past two years. Hasn't played much LF, however, -2 in 2025 and -1 for career; CF: -1 2025, +5 career; RF: -3 2025, +4 career; and overall OF: +9.
Andujar: LF -3 2025, -8 career; RF: 0 2025, +1 career. Overall OF career: -7
Sheets: LF -2 2025, -1 career; RF DNP 2025, -17 career. Overall OF career: -18
Castellanos: LF DNP, -1 career; RF -12 2025, -91 career. Overall OF career: -92
While our numbers are different, the rankings are the same and show how incredibly poor Castellanos is in the OF. Although his number at 3b only show a -10 for his career, this accounts for just his last two years at the position since they only started measuring this statistic in 2016. Guessing that his other two years would have put him in the -25 to -30 range for his career, which is still better than him being in the OF! Maybe a little, very little, 1b is possible.
FYI, our defensive replacement last year, Bryce Johnson, has an overall 2/2/0 career in LF/CF/RF and an overall OF rating of +4. A guy I like out there is Samad Taylor, who is a zero (average) for all OF positions over his career and is a better offensive player than Johnson.
#735 · February 21, 2026, 9:22 am
What I like about Taylor is that he is also an INF option (mainly 2B but has played a little SS) and does have that speed for PR (big base stealer). Non-roster (always an issue) but could see him bump Johnson (out of options).
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Randy Manese
#736 · February 23, 2026, 6:22 am
Saw that the Red Sox are looking for a LH Reliever.
Matsui or Peralta in a deal for SP Connelly Early?
We would probably have to add a SP prospect but Early appears to be ready now and we will need SP's next off season as well with Pivetta likely leaving...plus we need a LH Starter
#737 · February 23, 2026, 7:30 am
Early ranks #52 in Baseball America minor league top 100 and is probably #2 or #3 among their top 30 prospects. Don't think we can peddle Matsui or Peralta for him but they might take Morejon, despite him being in his walk year, if they are desperate. Might have a chance to get Jake Bennett for Matsui or Peralta, who is about the same size as Payton Tolle, their #1 prospect (#17 in top 100) and a LHP, at 6:06 and over 240 pounds; Bennett rates currently as #6 in the system by BA. Bennett still a year or two away from a major league debut as he pitched last year in AA.
#738 · February 23, 2026, 7:36 am
Quote from Randy Manese on February 23, 2026, 7:30 amEarly ranks #52 in Baseball America minor league top 100 and is probably #2 or #3 among their top 30 prospects. Don't think we can peddle Matsui or Peralta for him but they might take Morejon, despite him being in his walk year, if they are desperate. Might have a chance to get Jake Bennett for Matsui or Peralta, who is about the same size as Payton Tolle, their #1 prospect (#17 in top 100) and a LHP, at 6:06 and over 240 pounds; Bennett rates currently as #6 in the system by BA. Bennett still a year or two away from a major league debut as he pitched last year in AA.
Well yeah...if he sucked I wouldn't want him!
Early is 4th and Bennett 7th on Sox list.
Need the guy ready to go....7 of their top 11 prospects are SP's and they have a full rotation.
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Randy Manese
#739 · February 23, 2026, 8:06 am
Given their contracts and 2025 performance ... doubt going to get a near ML ready quality prospect for either Peralta and especially Matsui.
Prime benefit is the removal of their contracts vs whomever might replace them as a LHRP for the Padres ... Hart? Sears? or just go with two and another RHRP?
My guess is an upside prospect in the lower minors and/or some international bonus money. That is OK for me.
#740 · February 23, 2026, 9:42 am
Quote from fenn68 on February 23, 2026, 8:06 amGiven their contracts and 2025 performance ... doubt going to get a near ML ready quality prospect for either Peralta and especially Matsui.
Prime benefit is the removal of their contracts vs whomever might replace them as a LHRP for the Padres ... Hart? Sears? or just go with two and another RHRP?
My guess is an upside prospect in the lower minors and/or some international bonus money. That is OK for me.
Yeah, never expected it to be a 1 for 1 deal
Matsui or Peralta/Fountain/SP prospect