Quote from BoosterSD on February 17, 2026, 6:28 am

I guess it boils down to whether Preller thinks that Pivetta will maintain his well above career average from last season. An ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of .985. Or does he revert back closer to his career norms of an ERA around 4.47 and a WHIP of 1.27.

If Preller thinks he is close to last season, hard to trade. If he reverts back, then $19.75M for 4.47 ERA/1.27 WHIP should be easily replaced by a choice of many of the recent signings. And for big savings.

BIG QUESTION!!!

Quote from fenn68 on February 17, 2026, 6:50 am

Hard to imagine that Preller can project Pivetta to regress so much and at the same time one of these FA arms (all coming off a year+ of poor performances) to project to achieve anything near Pivetta ... as it is struggling to pick who (if any) will be better than Sears / Vasquez in 2026. ST may be a clue but not enough to rely on a full season performance.

Can't see a good scenario if they want to be contenders moving Pivetta then relying on King and Musgrove to remain healthy and one of the masses filling the holes. Think the bet is on Pivetta ... maybe not to his 2025 level but still an upper rotation arm that makes his starts.

Quote from fenn68 on February 17, 2026, 7:12 am

Just for background for some 1B/DH/LF options looking at 2025:

1. Laureano (488 PA) ... 138 wRC+ (137 v RHP / 139 v LHP) ... well above career but hard to find a better option for a full time role in LF
2. Andujar (341 PA) ... 125 wRC+ (125 v RHP / 108 v LHP) ... numbers that could justify a full time DH role since he is a poor fielder
3. Sheets (545 PA) ... 111 wRC+ (119 v RHP / 89 v LHP) ... off a career year with his best v LHP but legit 1B option (even if platooned)
4. France (496 PA) ... 92 wRC+ (93 v RHP / 90 v LHP) ... on minors contract ... off season in 2025 but not really a big bat vs LHP
5. Castellanos (589 PA) ... 90 wRC+ (91 v RHP / 87 v LHP) ... not that impressive for a LHP platoon

All these player have been around for some time and sure 2025 could be an outlier but all are past the development stage and maybe in decline.

So, still seeing some softness vs LHP as a platoon for Sheets. Maybe Preller keeps looking?

Quote from Randy Manese on February 17, 2026, 7:20 am

Concur with keeping Pivetta unless someone from the pool of return-from-injury cast-offs makes a remarkable showing in extended ST or El Paso(?).  At best, we'll likely get a 4th or 5th SP, depending upon how Vasquez looks but the bar is not high.  For this reason, need a solid, healthy 3 at the top of the rotation to try to win most series - just got to get the offense to strike early and we'll have more than a 50/50 chance to bring in the victory with our bullpen.

On the other hand, I believe the player most likely to be traded is Laureano.  Think we can get by with a Sheets/Castellanos platoon in LF provided that Song can hold his own at the plate.  If he can, like Croney at 1b and Song at 2b to provide our best possible INF defense.  Lots of bodies to plug in at 1b, but none are even close to the defense that Croney brings to the position.  Fall back/rotation pieces at 1b to include Andujar, Campusano and the aforementioned Sheets and Castellanos.  Padres still don't have the long-term answer in LF in the system so I think Preller is trying to find someone he can put there in 2027 and beyond, preferably another LH batter with a little speed to make the team more dynamic.  Don't have anyone in mind, but Preller is good at identifying talent on the rise so hoping he finds one that could possibly contribute as early as the mid-2026 season.

Quote from fenn68 on February 17, 2026, 8:12 am

Juggling winning in 2026 and building a competitive 2027 roster will be hard for Preller. The offense has 2026 the last seasons under control for Laureano, Andujar, Castellanos plus only 2 years for Sheets.

To that end don't see them dealing Laureano (for 2026 purposes) ... not going to get much for a guy on a one year deal and he would likely only appeal to a team that thinks they can contend now. However, do see leveraging some of the better RP options (from a crowded pen) for prospects (LF / 1B) that may help in 2026 but build a stronger base for next and future years with long control at a low cost. How much do you give out of the pen for a prospect ... especially one that projects as a plus regular?

Lot of pressure on the scouting department to find available prospects at a Padre price (level of trade chips).

Song is a real wildcard. First can he hit ML pitching. After that where to best deploy him ... he really was a 3B with a little work at 2B/1B and no read on his defense in either slot. Croney is good at both but would not rule out Song at 1B makes the better combo than Song at 2B. Then, Song has some running ability and the Padres will test him in the OF ... could he land in LF in 2027? INF to OF worked for Merrill and Tatis.  That flexibility helps Preller's strategy on adding bats with less regard to position.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 17, 2026, 8:41 am

As an addendum ... they might deal Laureano IF in a separate deal (probably using a RP) they land a similar LF (but longer control / cheaper) then move off Laureano for a prospect.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 17, 2026, 9:35 am

With our lack of internal options for LF going forward it might even be a good idea to extend Laureano for 1-2 years.

If he has a good start to 2026....it may be our best option.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 17, 2026, 10:56 am

From the Padres perspective ... wonder what the new challengers for the bottom of the rotation have to show in ST to bump Vasquez and/or Sears. None are coming off good seasons and all have concerns about injury. ST is a short window.

The threshold presented by Vasquez (out of options) and Sears (has an option) is maybe higher than most think out of this group.

1. Vasquez made 26 starts (134 innings) with a 3.84 ERA and that is better than average for a SP. Was that smoke and mirrors ... maybe ... but he did deliver a decent bench of availability and performance. Hard to dump him on the unknown over a full season of the re-tread FA.
2. Sears made 27 starts (136 innings) with an unimpressive 5.04 ERA BUT factor in his 2024 (32 starts / 181 innings / 4.38 ERA) and 2023 (32 starts / 171 innings / 4.54 ERA). Clearly he offers close to (or just below) average ERA with posting up every start and delivering innings ... not without value.

Maybe the battle is purely between Marquez, Canning, Buehler, et al to be the ONE FA to make the roster and bump Sears. (all this baring injuries).

Quote from BoosterSD on February 17, 2026, 12:04 pm

Maybe they go with a pseudo 6 man or 5 and a half man rotation. Where as maybe Pivetta is the only one that stays on the typical 5 man rotation schedule. And then Musgrove, King, and Vasquez along with the best of the Sears, Marquez, Buehler, and Canning when healthy add in additional days of rest to protect health and effectiveness into the playoffs.

I would imagine that if performance is about equal, that Sears gets optioned to start the season so the best of the others remain on the roster and dont opt out.