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2025-26 Offseason thread
#441 · January 12, 2026, 5:36 pm
Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2026, 5:28 amPurely speculative by Ken Rosenthal on a potential Padre strategy to upgrade the roster. (I guess theory makes sense but not sure works in practice).
Trade Pivetta ($20.5MM, FA after the season) and get a player(s) of value in return at low cost / long control (maybe that RHH). Then with the money saved, sign either Bassett or Giolito (should be in mid-teens) ... maybe on a multi-year deal.
A lot rests on projection for Pivetta (can he repeat 2025?) and would either of Bassett or Giolito perform close enough to Pivetta's level to where the combination of the player return and the pitching create a better roster overall. Plus may open a few million more in wiggle room for another depth add.
Possible?
We all know the kind of mad magician Preller is, and the kinds of unpredictable spells he can pull out of his deepest nether regions, but it's a little difficult to math the math, here. To your point, there's probably a safe bet that Pivetta will regress enough to make his loss somewhat washed by the acquisition of someone like Bassett. However, we still would need to fill another rotation spot beyond that. Presumably, that would be accomplished by part of the return for Pivetta (whether directly or spun off to another party in exchange for a different piece).
The difficult math, here, is that we're trading from our rotation to improve our rotation, and not via addition by subtraction. That also means that whoever is acquiring Pivetta is also looking to improve their rotation at a time the same combination of free agent and trade acquisition pieces that the Padres are targeting are available to them, as well. Who, then, is looking to acquire Pivetta at a prospect cost and payroll increase when they could instead acquire different pieces that, in theory, exceed Pivetta's value for the same or lesser cost?
Very much looking forward to seeing how Preller pieces this together, but man... it is quite the needle to thread.
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#442 · January 12, 2026, 6:59 pm
If I were to guess ... If Preller traded Pivetta the return would likely be an offensive piece in return (and maybe a decent pitching prospect) ... plus save the $20MM. Then with the $20MM go for Bassett or Giolito likely around $15MM BUT maybe a creative deal with a lower 2026 but a second / third year at a higher salary. At that point (possible) the SP is not much different but now have the needed offensive add and some additional wiggle room in payroll for another offensive add or a bounce back #5 candidate.
Layer in the idea that Preller is still considering moving Cronenworth ($12.6MM) ... might just yield prospect(s) but with the cleared payroll combined with the low net of Pivetta - Bassett ... might just land a second SP of the FA market and end up with BOTH Giolito and Bassett. Works if OK with Song at 2B and the 1B is covered by whomever they get in the Pivetta return.
Seems way too complicated for me ... but this is Preller. Net of all that is ... for the same payroll ... Pivetta replaced by Bassett and Giolito and Cronenworth is replaced by Song and a "hitter" from the Pivetta trade. Could make a decent case the "team" is better off especially if considering a 162 game schedule.
#443 · January 12, 2026, 8:28 pm
NYM reportedly interested in Pivetta. How about Pivetta and Rodriguez for McLean? Or Sproat and Clifford?
#444 · January 13, 2026, 3:08 am
Quote from Commie on January 12, 2026, 8:28 pmNYM reportedly interested in Pivetta. How about Pivetta and Rodriguez for McLean? Or Sproat and Clifford?
Mets are a good option ... no chance on McLean who may be better than Pivetta in 2026 based on his 2025 debut.
Hard to guess Pivetta's trade return value ... a top of the rotation talent but for only one year and picking up $20.5MM. (don't discount that a prime value to the Padres is the shedding of that $20.5MM to redeploy).
Sproat is probably in play and is close to the ML as a SP. I would like Preller to land Benge (LHH 5 tool OF prospect ... maybe a 1/2 season out) but unlikely since the Mets GM really does not like trading prospects. Maybe in a bigger deal that adds Laureano and a RP gets you Benge and Sproat? No.
One Met prospect that would not excite the fans in a deal could be Jett Williams ... an INF/OF probably a year away but a Top 100 who Preller liked coming out of the draft. Speed, defense, hitting potential but little power and being likely a 2B not a major trade chip. Might make, at some point, Cronenworth an easier player to move with both Song and Williams replacement options. Pivetta for Sproat and Williams while saving $20.5MM to redeploy on the likes of Bassett (at less)?
I would not rule out Vientos (1B) ... 4 years control / league minimum but likely in a "bigger" trade with others going both ways.
Bottom line is that the METS have a pretty good stable of options that should appeal to the Padres ... Mets could use a SP ... just how much is Sterns willing to play ball in a deal. Also, Mets are currently #1 or #2 in payroll and potentially still targeting Tucker or Bellinger. Maybe that needs to get resolved first.
Most reports suggest that Preller wants to trade first (and shed salary) before signing FA so as not to get "trapped" on the payroll side plus IF timed right should get a better deal with any FA near ST. I guess could infer that the Padres are currently at their payroll max for 2026. Remember the Padres are now $9MM higher than 2025 and in the Top 10 in payroll.
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#445 · January 13, 2026, 3:56 am
To Sports point, any team that would trade for Pivetta for 1 season could also just sign Giolito or Bassitt for 2-3.
Unless they just don’t believe they’re as good “enough” to be willing to also give up players for Nick.
If I’m the Mets,and I’m interested in Pivetta, I think I just sign Bassitt and keep my youngsters.
Or sign Bassitt and trade one of the youngsters for something else I need
#446 · January 13, 2026, 6:45 am
Mets' view would have to be Pivetta is greater than either Bassitt or Giolito maybe made more compelling if they do not want to go multi-year on either of them (likely that is what those players are positioning for). So, that could be worth a prospect who will not fit their 2026 plans. Possible both pitchers besides wanting multi-year deals just don't have NY high on their priority list IF other suitors are out there.
Padres may also see Pivetta as the better pitcher ... but see value in the combo of a prospect and signing one of the other pitchers to a multi-year deal. Maybe more flexibility for 2026 (net lower payroll) and secures some 2027 stability.
Likely both the Padres and the Mets have had their discussions with the agents for Bassitt and Giolito and have a reasonable idea on what it would take to sign either.
Side: similar logic could apply to BALT, NYY, BOST all potentially having to react to TOR's upgrades ... and if (when) TOR signs Tucker or resigns Bichette. One year of Pivetta at $20.5MM might seem much better than any of the FA SP (Suarez / Valdez) who will cost more / long term especially if competition to try to sign them. Worth dealing some prospect(s).
#447 · January 13, 2026, 6:56 am
Noted on MLBTradeRumors that the FA RP market has pretty much been drained ... the remaining options are more risk / marginal.
Preller may have played this well if he is willing to deal from his RP depth ... and given all the RHRP options (more than can make the 26 man roster) he just may have the assets to pull off a useful upgrade ... most contending teams want / need more RP.
Preller does seem to be comfortable to wait out the market be it trades or FA and goes with deals late ... even near opening day. Always makes me nervous ... but is seems to work for Preller.
#448 · January 13, 2026, 11:43 am
Different spin if clearing payroll first to sign a useful FA is the plan ... consider the small market clubs that receive revenue sharing but (as I understand it) forfeit that if not at a minimum payroll. Also, minimizes union grievances for low payroll.
It could make sense to take on salary to end up getting even more as part of revenue sharing ... net gain. If the selling team tosses in a mid-level prospect that may sweeten the deal. MIA comes to mind as a potential dumping ground for Matsui or even Cronenworth if the Padres don't ask for anything in return ... just happy with the payroll space to sign a more "useful" player and probably eliminate a longer term commitment.
#449 · January 13, 2026, 12:37 pm
My concerns with trading Crone is two-fold. One, we dont know if Song can handle ML pitching, took Kim one full year to figure it out. Two, Crone is fan favorite and would be hard to convince the casual fan that this was a good move. At least up front.
#450 · January 13, 2026, 2:56 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on January 13, 2026, 12:37 pmMy concerns with trading Crone is two-fold. One, we dont know if Song can handle ML pitching, took Kim one full year to figure it out. Two, Crone is fan favorite and would be hard to convince the casual fan that this was a good move. At least up front.
Agree on the concern ... just boils down to what they would use the $12.5MM for in 2026 and in each of the following four years.
Sure a gamble on Song ... but on this offense how much does he have to hit ... understanding that Cronenworth was a bottom of the line-up bat. Threshold may not be that high to come near Croney's production and potentially get greater impact from whomever is added.
Is Player X + Song > Cronenworth + Song for team success?
P.S. I like Cronenworth on the Padres more than most so not "eager" to trade him but if that leads to a better team ...