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2020 NL West

Everyone in the media seems to think that LAD will walk away again with the NL West. Even if we trade for Betts, many think that SD will not even be a playoff team. I don’t think that is fair considering that we were one game over .500 at the All Star break last season, and had just taken 3 of 4 from LAD.

I think if we take a look at the 2020 squads of both LAD and SD, we might see that we are not that far behind LAD IF we trade for Betts. I used CBS Sports with a couple of small changes for depth charts to show the head to head.

SP. LA – 1. Buehler, 2. Kershaw, 3. Urias, 4. May, 5. A. Wood. SD – 1. Paddack, 2. Lamet, 3. Luchessi, 4. Richards, 5. Davies.

Buehler is better than Paddack, and Kershaw is probably better than Lamet. Although Kershaw is getting older, is hurt more often, and is starting to show some signs of decline. I don’t think #s 3-5 are that debatable as Urias has not thrown over 80 innings in his ML career, May is a rookie probably on a inning limit, and A. Wood is an injury waiting to happen. With our added depth in Quantrill, Baez, and Morejon and others gotta give an advantage to SD on this one.

C. LA – Smith/Barnes. SD – Mejia/Hedges

I think that Mejia helps close the gap, but I gotta give this one to the Duds.

1B. LA – Muncy. SD – Hosmer/France.

I think platooning Hosmer will make this a better fight, and Hosmer did drive in more runs than Muncy (by 1 RBI 😊). Muncy does have more power, so give this one to LA as well.

2B. LA – Lux/Taylor. SD – Profar/Garcia.

I know that Lux is the second coming of Mike Trout, and going to be the best player on Earth, but until he actually does something in the MLs, lets call this one a push or maybe slightly in LADs favor because of Taylor at this time.

SS. LA – Seager. SD – Tatis Jr.

Both have had injury problems last couple of seasons. But if both are healthy, Tatis has more power and speed IMO, while I believe that Seager has the better glove. I do think that Tatis can improve his glove, so IMO this is a push, or a slightly in SDs favor.

3B. LA – Turner. SD – Machado.

I know Turner has had really good seasons in the past, and has killed SD in the past. But he just turned 35, so gotta give the boys in brown the advantage on this one.

RF. LA – Pollock. SD – Pham

They do so much rearranging of OFers especially that its hard to place a main guy in each spot, so Im just going with CBS here. Pollock and his ability to play CF gives him the defense advantage, but Pham is not a liability in LF. And Pham is a much better bat and stays healthy, advantage SD.

CF. LA – Bellinger. SD – Margot/Grisham

Even with Margot’s abilities on defense, this is no contest……LA in a landslide.

RF. LA – Verdugo. SD – Myers……possibly Betts.

IF SD gets Betts, there is no discussion….its SD all the way to the bank! If its Myers v. Verdugo got to give LA an advantage, unless Myers finally returns to his All Star ways. So, advantage LA.

RP. Too many names to list, but we all know its SD.

Bench, at this time LA has the advantage over SD, but not as large as it used to be IMO.

SD – SP, SS, 3B, LF, and RP.

LA – 1B, 2B, CF, RF, and bench.

If we get Betts, is it really that out of consideration that we cant compete for the division?

And to be honest, I think AZ throws a wrench into the fight for the division as well.

2019 wins: LAD (106); AZ (85); SF (75); COLO (71); SD (70).

Although I do think the Padres will be way better (with or without Betts) ... even making up the 15 game difference with AZ after they added Marte, Calhoun, and Bumgarner is going to be a challenge. Making up 36 game to tie LAD is more than just a challenge ... long, long odds (always possible but so is winning the CA Lottery).

Do see LAD not repeating near that 106 win total with their loss of Ryu and more SP questions than in 2019. However, their regular line-up does have a track record that should keep them up over 90 wins.

COLO and SF should be bad ... will give a lot of wins to LAD, AZ, and SD.

Optimistic on improvement but how much is a function of a lot of Padre "ifs" coming together ... and they rarely all do at the same time. A winning season ... yes. Wild Card ... possible but a long shot. NL WEST winner ... improbable.

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2020, 5:29 am

2019 wins: LAD (106); AZ (85); SF (75); COLO (71); SD (70).

Although I do think the Padres will be way better (with or without Betts) ... even making up the 15 game difference with AZ after they added Marte, Calhoun, and Bumgarner is going to be a challenge. Making up 36 game to tie LAD is more than just a challenge ... long, long odds (always possible but so is winning the CA Lottery).

Do see LAD not repeating near that 106 win total with their loss of Ryu and more SP questions than in 2019. However, their regular line-up does have a track record that should keep them up over 90 wins.

COLO and SF should be bad ... will give a lot of wins to LAD, AZ, and SD.

Optimistic on improvement but how much is a function of a lot of Padre "ifs" coming together ... and they rarely all do at the same time. A winning season ... yes. Wild Card ... possible but a long shot. NL WEST winner ... improbable.

LAD minus Ryu and Hill ... With basically green SP May and Urias an older less effective Kershaw ..a stud Buehler and an ok #4 in Maeda/Woods... Will regress to around 96 wins...

I see AZ = to 2019 .. No Greinke + MadBum is a downgrade.. MadBum might get destroy in AZ home games vs spacious SF... I think there is a bit of regression in Walker and K in 2020.. But I'll say they come inbat 85-90 D's

SDP right now I have at 85 wins.. If Machado figures out Petco (away games he was a stud) + SP is healthy and progressing we could push 90 wins... Obviously if we get Betts neddle moves to 90-95 Wins.. Tatis health needs to be 130+ games good though...

Agree to worry on Machado and Tatis. Would also add that even if healthy, would expect  his production to dip purely based on the pitchers adjusting to him and his results were really high in 2019.

I also have serious concerns on:

Grisham who only hit .200 away from Miller Park ... CF fo 75% of the season?

Profar who only hit .218 ... 2B

Hedges who only hit .176 ... catcher for 1/3rd of the games.

For a severely offensively challenged club in 2019 that does not deliver improvement at 3 out of eight positions ... and should expect Hosmer to be what he has been for years. As we stand, only Pham looks like an improvement they can count upon.

I will throw one from the SP ... Garrett Richards who most seem to be expect a lot from. He is very good when healthy but the last time he pitched a full slate was 2015 (207 innings) and the next best was 2014 (only 168 innings). Since 2015 has not been healthy to deliver the innings plus turning 32 in May. It might come together ... it might not either in the innings or the ERA returning after the TJ and time off ... at least not “early” in 2020.

 

The Padres have a powerful 1,2 punch of young budding ACES in Paddack and Lamet. We have a solid 3-6 back end of rotation with Richards, Davies, Joey and Cal. We also have two exciting kids knocking on the door. We have one of the best bullpens in baseball and it’s DEEP. We have star power in Machado, Tatis, Pham to go with intriguing young talents like Mejia, Grisham, Cordero, etc. Quiroz and Profar will give the Padres significant offensive production at 2nd. I think AJP upgraded a huge weakness of last years team and those two are being overlooked. I don’t think there’s anyway we go into opening day without Betts or Bryant on the Padres. Adding Pham, a Betts/Bryant and offensive production from 2nd base will make the Padres lineup scary good. The Dodgers are a great team, but they have question marks and some aging players on that roster. I fully expect the 2020 Padres to contend with Dodgers for the division.

Lets get to 81 wins first.....I think that is doable because Andy Green is gone.....he cost the Padres at least 10 games last season. This team had 70 wins last year and the 2nd wildcard team........Brewers had 89

Is this team good enough right now to add 19 to 20 wins over last year to get to 89 or 90 wins ? I think to get a wild card spot is going to take at least 93 wins.....a plus 23 game flip from last year

The AL Wildcard win total was 96 and 97 for the A's and Rays

Would love to see it but 20-23 more wins......I just don't see it with the roster as it stands...Pham and Profar do not add the 20-23 wins........after so many losing seasons under .500, last time over .500 was 2010 with 90 wins, it would be wonderful just to have 82 wins and log it as a winning season.

Compared to their history

Decade Wins Losses Pct
1960s 52 110 .321
1970s 667 942 .415
1980s 762 805 .486
1990s 758 799 .487
2000s 769 852 .474
2010s 532 602 .469
All-time 3540 4110 .463
Quote from 3fingersplit on February 1, 2020, 10:27 pm

Lets get to 81 wins first.....I think that is doable because Andy Green is gone.....he cost the Padres at least 10 games last season. This team had 70 wins last year and the 2nd wildcard team........Brewers had 89

We were 46-45 , and took 3 out of 4 games from the LAD right before the All Star game. LAD no longer has Ryu, and after Buehler and Kershaw, all the other starters have question marks IMO. So I dont think they win 106 games again.

IMO Davies is an improvement over Lauer. A full season of Paddack, healthy Lamet and Richards to start the season. Plus a healthy Tatis for a whole season couldnt hurt either.

So to quote you, a new manager gets us 10 additional wins, 80. Can we agree that Pham gets us 3 more wins? Profar, 2? LAD coming back to the pack a little as well, 4 games? So thats 89 wins. So that leaves 4-6 wins needed to get to the WC. Betts could get us those wins.

Actually I said Green cost the Padres at least 10 games but not knowing this new manager you can't tack on 10 wins....this guy might cost us 15 games....Pham if he plays a whole season....maybe 3.......Profar hitting .200 for 2 wins ? I'll be curious to see how many games Mejia wins for SD as opposed to how many he kicks....strong defensively up the middle starts behind the plate so that will be something to watch.

No certainty that Richards or Lamet don't end up on the DL so I keep my other starters.

I think the starting pitching could be a wash for both teams....Dodgers lost Honeycutt and Padres lost Balsley so who knows how both pitching staffs respond. Bullpen I give to the Padres.....Hitting I give to the Dodgers just because they can hurt you anywhere in that lineup and they have a different approach / plan mentality that the Padres lack as a team in my opinion.

I'll stick to just over .500 and if they flip 20-25 games and get to 90-95 wins I'll be the first to say Congrats and I was wrong and who knows...maybe Meyers has a bounce back season and is a 30-30 guy and Naylor breaks out and becomes a weapon and Joey and Cal step in for injured guys a carry the load with out Betts.

Last thing...it seems to me that guys coming over from the AL struggle a bit against NL Pitching at least for awhile....just my opinion on that one