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10 facts while waiting for 1st domino to fall... let's interpret what they mean

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  1. FA SP is strong in both quality & depth.  2/3 of top 24 FA per MLTBR are P. Market already appears to be rising from MLBTR estimates.
  2. FA position players for Pads specific needs very weak at top:  Don't need 3B, not bringing Grandal back, 2 top OF are both RH (need LH):  Castellanos = worst defensive RF last 2 years,  Ozuna two OK years in a row; basically = Renfroe .  The highest rated FA by MBTR that is a projectable Pads need fit is Corey Dickerson #25 at modest 2/15 MM contract estimate.
  3. Padres SP DEPTH is extremely strong.  My subjective ranking 1-12:  Gore, Richards, Paddack, Lamet, Patino, Morejon, Lucchesi, Lauer, Quantrill, Strahm (RP?), Baez (RP?), Bolanos (actually have David Weathers #12, but just say Bolanos).  Can argue about the ranking, but almost inarguable that our top 12 SP will ALL have appeared in MLB by end of 2020.  That’s an entire MLB rotation AND bullpen with all but Richards (1) and Strahm (3) under control at least 4 years.
  4. TOP of Padres rotation DOES have an “Innings Limit” problem in 2020:  Looking at top 7 guys on my list & max IP in 2020:   Gore – 150, G. Richards – 150?, Paddack -210 (OK), Lamet – 150?, Patino – 140?, Morejon -100.  Only Paddack has no limitation, and 200-210 would be 50% workload increase from last year.  Richards & Lamet off TJ not going to 200 IP.  Gore + Patino = 50% workload increase.  Morejon’s high in 3 yrs is 65.  The next group of Lucchesi, Lauer, & Quantrill all have no limitations.  Strahm & Baez are in “limbo” between RP & SP.
  5. Padres SP rotation had near perfect health once the season started.  This is massively overlooked.  Yes, Lamet & Richards missed some/most of season off TJ Surg, and depth guys Nix & Kennedy missed entire season with injuries before & during ST.  But from Opening Day on, the Pads “rotation of many” missed exactly ONE scheduled start (Strahm) to injury.  Paddack got optioned around ASB for minimum 10 days.
  6. Current Padres Payroll + Roster near identical to 2019’s.  Payroll right now is about 120 MM projected without FA Stammen (or FA/trade RP to replace him) vs. 125 MM end 2019.
  7. Projected 2020 Payroll increase is limited.  Kevin Acee says 130-140 MM; about a 4-12% increase from last year.  He may be wrong, but common sense suggests not much higher than this.
  8. 40-man roster is very tight & projects to be more so next offseason with Huge International “Class” becoming Rule 5 eligible.  Guys we’re talking about DFA’ing now are useful MLB role players like Martini & still in top 30 Avila, & former system #1 (top 25 MLB) Espinoza.  5 days to make room for any to protect from Rule 5, then every roster addition after that there would also has to be a subtraction.
  9. Roster / Farm Deep at:  SP, C, SS (& 3B) capable INF, CF
  10. Roster / Farm Weak at:  RP (depth), corner OF, 1B below AAA

So many things come out of all these facts taken together.  One of them for me is:

Either Lucchesi or Lauer should be traded this offseason to maximize their value before they (both) reach Arbitration next year.  

By my Subjective ranking #3 which I took 20 deep, look at the Quality of the SP in the O.D. rotation relative to Pads team/system from last year to this.

2019:  #3 Paddack,  #7 Lucchesi,  #8 Lauer,  #10 Strahm,  #17 Margevicius

2020:  New FA SP?, #2 Richards, #3 Paddack, #4 Lamet, #7 Lucchesi, #8 Lauer.... with Gore pushing everyone down when he arrives.  Now even if you move to a modified 6-man rotation if you add a T.O.R. FA SP... it's obvious L & L's value are not as high to Pads this year as last; and will be even less so in 2021 even assuming Richards departs.

2021:  #1 Gore, FA SP?, #3 Paddack, #4 Lamet, #5 Patino, #6 Morejon.... etc.

I've argued to trade one for $ basically to get someone to take Myers at all & more of his contract, and apply that $ towards a FA SP.

But if we don't sign a FA SP, I would STILL argue we should trade 1 of these guys to pre-emptively get out of Arb next year and either preferably address another MLB roster need like RP, or even just get really good non-40 man prospect (1B or corner OF power guy?)

Combo of #1, 2, 4, & 5 are why I argue FA SP is best use of $ in this FA market.

With move to 26-man roster, and Pads' strong SP depth on 40-man, but lack of guys experienced going to 175-200 IP, they could REALLY use a guy like MadBum or Wheeler who they put at the top of a "modified" 6-man rotation:

  • Make FA the O.D. starter & have him go every 5th day Target: 32 GS, 200 IP. 
  • Have the next 5 guys pitch every 6th day.  Target: 27 GS, 175 IP
  • Looks like this:  1,2,3,4,5,1,6,2,3,4,1,5,6,2,3,1,4,5,6,2,1,3,4,5,6, re-sets...
  • "Massage" Gore's Service Time (i.e. Gain extra year control!) & Workload by having him work as the #5/6 SP in ST.  Send to AA and have him make the LAST start in the rotation there (Minors O.D. April 6th +/- usually a week+ after MLB O.D.); probably around 4/12.  Give him 3-4 starts totalling 15 IP.  Depending on his & MLB #6 performance he could go up in late April, early May, going every 6th day:  Target: 22 GS, 135 IP (+15 = 150)
  • Of course it likely won't all go this smoothly, but have the combo of depth & talent but also innings limitations to make good use of this.
  • In 2021 move to a traditional 5-man rotation with no limitations on top 5.

 

Nice but doesn't matter....all your friends want to trade most of the pitchers you named for 1 year rentals for a team that won't catch the Dodgers if you give up your Pitching and certainly not projected SP that could have very nice careers for your own team.

I get sick of reading this whole forum because of the amount of stupidity....Richard is a ONE year guy if he doesn't break down and then he is a free agent and GONE and he will be GONE

Why is everybody so hell bent on shipping every pitcher in the system out of here for a bunch of no name, average journeyman type players?

You Don't Trade YOUNG pitching that you develop unless you admit you made a mistake and they just aren't MLB quality.....I would love to have Max Fried back....number 1 pick but he got traded to Atlanta for what ?

That trade was terrible

I haven’t seen too many trade ideas for 1 year rental players?

Betts has been the only one and I don’t think anyone really thinks that’s happening.

 

For 2020 would not trade any of Gore, Patino, or Morejon for the “marginal” names that may be legitimately on the market .... their TOR upside and position near the ML has too much long term value than the short term upgrades for a team not likely to contend in 2020 even with those upgrades.

As for pitchers going 200 innings ... like it but I think the Padres can manage around any limitations on pitchers given their “depth”. In the ML in 2019 only 14 pitchers went more than 200 innings and only 33 surpassed 180 innings so would be good but not critical. Given the currently model ... get 30 starts at 5-6 innings is the norm so 150-180 innings works. IF the Padres work their young starters that way .... may need to have some more focus on the RP quality that we have been discussing.

As for Richards ... not yet sold on him being back to TOR form in 2020 ... that is a lot of wait and see. Would expect him to be good ... but maybe a #2-3 ... but more a long shot since it has been quite a while since he was in that form. Fair chance he gets dealt at the trade deadline.

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2019, 9:43 am

For 2020 would not trade any of Gore, Patino, or Morejon for the “marginal” names that may be legitimately on the market .... their TOR upside and position near the ML has too much long term value than the short term upgrades for a team not likely to contend in 2020 even with those upgrades.

As for pitchers going 200 innings ... like it but I think the Padres can manage around any limitations on pitchers given their “depth”. In the ML in 2019 only 14 pitchers went more than 200 innings and only 33 surpassed 180 innings so would be good but not critical. Given the currently model ... get 30 starts at 5-6 innings is the norm so 150-180 innings works. IF the Padres work their young starters that way .... may need to have some more focus on the RP quality that we have been discussing.

As for Richards ... not yet sold on him being back to TOR form in 2020 ... that is a lot of wait and see. Would expect him to be good ... but maybe a #2-3 ... but more a long shot since it has been quite a while since he was in that form. Fair chance he gets dealt at the trade deadline.

Good point, FENN.  But 2 things:  1)  Still need arm/innings at TOP that can even get to 175-180.  2)  This doesn't factor in playoffs.  Guys like Paddack, Richards, & Lamet are going to want the ball every 5th day... but it's a long haul.  We definitely have the depth to manage it, but would love to instill a FA in the top 3 for at least 2 years, freeing up guys like L & L or even Q as potential trade capital... NOT Lamet, Patino.

I'd like to see:

RH-Paddack

LH-Ryu/Hamels

RH-Lamet

LH-Lucchesi

RH-Richards

 

MLBTR had an interesting summary article/poll about the top of the FA SP market.  It pointed out that there are 8 FA SP they project to command contracts of 20 MM+

Cole  250 MM+, Strasburg 180+, Wheeler 100+, Bumgarner 72+, Ryu 54 +, Keuchel 39+, Hamels 30+, and M. Pineda 22+

The more I look at Hamels and Especially Keuchel, the less I like them.  Think Hamels SD homegrown is leading to the speculation of what really isn't a great fit for him (1 yr deal w "contender") or us (not TOR or enough IP).  As for Keuchel, I know he's a ground ball guy, but look at his career:  the big year with Houston looks like a complete outlier, reminding me WAY too much of Ian Kennedy... take a look.   When you look at the WHIP & other peripherals of these 2, they really don't justify spending the $ to insert them in a rotation ahead of Lucchesi, Quantrill, or maybe even Lauer.

Importantly, neither guy seems good enough to warrant turning around & trading Lucchesi or Lauer (with Myers) due to displacing them, but since their AAV is still 13-15 MM, really almost have to trade Myers (+ ?) to clear room for other additons.

Idea of Cole fronting our rotation next 5 years makes me drool, but can't see how Pads could do it even with trading out all of Myers 60 MM, heavily backloading even deferring, AND Pads payroll ceiling is actually much higher than we think it is.  Stras IS do-able, but at some point have to draw the line in $$ for declining velo SP with his injury history.

So if can't sign 1 of the big 2 at AAV of 30 MM+,  Sign one of :  Wheeler, Bumgarner, or Ryu at AAV 17-20 MM.    If can't sign one of those 5, I might stand pat over trading for a guy with only 2 years control like Jon Gray.  But what do you guys think of Pineda?  1.5+ yrs (susp) /22 Healthy seems like good value next to G. Richards basically 1/15 + incentives off TJ.  Hard to see how could add him in addition to another SP even with a large 10-15 MM AAV subtract in a Myers trade.  But maybe plan "C"?

Worth mentioning too that Pineda & the FA SP around him:  Kyle Gibson, Tanner Roark, Julio Teheran, & Wade Miley  are instructive for valuing Lucchesi or Lauer (or Q, but agreeing with multiple arguing he has best upside, so keep him).

They are all est @ 2/18 except Pineda 2/22 & Miley 2/16.  So 8-9 MM AAV x 2 except Pineda more upside.

Seems to suggest to me that a younger MLB SP with 4 (Lucchesi) or 5 (Lauer) years control is "worth" about 20 MM...

Lower AAV of only 4-5 MM despite longer control takes into account rising arb salaries plus some higher likelihood of injury &/or decline relative to longer control (i.e. less "value" in ex. last year of arb).  What do you guys think?  In the ballpark of correct valuation?

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