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Your the 2024 Padres GM
#1 · December 31, 2022, 5:31 am
Navigate this team at $250mil for 2024 and beyond..What do you do?
* assume or extend Manny 10/$300
Entering the 2024 offseason we will have Yu/Snell/Hader all as FA.. I would start by QO all 3.. also FA Pomz/Severino/Garcia
Assuming Othani is FA I would offer 10/500 ($50mil per ..record setting stuff and sign him) obviously I can't sign or extend Soto if I do this. So Soto to NYY for Torres/Schmidt/Dominguez/Wells and Pereira...
We would have
1. Tatis CF
2. Othani DH
3. Manny 3B
4. Xander SS
5. Torres 2B
6. Croneswotth 1B
7. Dominguez LF
8. Nola C
9. Pereira RF
Bench
10. KIM Super Utility 2B/SS/3B
11. Carpenter DH/COF/COI
12. Wells C
13. Azocar CF/OF
$162 mil for the 13 position players.. (counting 1/2 $25 mil of Othani here)
* obviously Campy/Grish and Rosario were packaged in one form or another say with Castillo and Wethers for Pablo Lopez SP
Pitching
1. Joe Musgrove
2. Othani
3. Pablo Lopez.
4. MARTINEZ (obviously he pitched well enough in 2023 to earn 2/32 team option)
5. Schdmidt
6. battle - Wolf/Groome/Avila/Brito/Cienfuegos
7. Cl Suarez
8. Wilson
9. Hill
10. Morejon
11. Cristmatt
12. Cosgrove
13. Baez
I am roughly at $90 mil +/- on P.. or at $252 payroll
Our lineup seems deeper..and younger .. Wells can be a star at C or a very good backup and be dealt with if/when King Jr and/or Salas arrive in 2026-7 or 8... Torres bat plays ...well behind Xander and in front of Crone....Merrill in 25 can push Xander to 2B or 1B and assume SS duties...making Torres trade bait and keeping Crone in SD long term ...
SP looks deeper .. maybe a notch below at the top 3 .. Joe + Othani seem > than Joe and Yu..Snell>Lopez ..but Lopez more reliable... 4 5 6 appeared improved if not a lot > depending on Schmidt development as SP and the arrival of Wolf of not the continued development of Groome/Avila.. The BP will be a bit green but Wilson/Cristmatt/Morejon would be young tested arms with an extra yr under their belt.. Suarez has shown ice in his veins in the highest of high leverage situations to be an AS level Closer.. and Hill adopts the Veteran leader of the Pen role.. Baez and Cosgrove (others) round up the BP as the young arms
Everyone is also controlled beyond 2024.. making for easier upgrades/trades and reinforcements in 2025 aka Merrill/Zavala/others pushing for MLB spots from position player side..Luzarraga/Mazur/others from P side...
Went back and forth on Soto vs Othani.. and because Othani gives us 2 positions vs 1.. and the potential "franchise altering" return we can get for Soto..while maintaining a Fearsome 4 some order.. i went Othani...
*;Dreamed it.. and in the dream I offered Othani 10 for $500.. Soto 14/$500.. Othani said yes 1st leading to Soto trade..
What would you do?.. $250 budget (+/- 5%)
#2 · December 31, 2022, 1:01 pm
I’ll play
a lot of things to look forward to but if you want to break it down… Manny Tatis Soto and Xander will combine to make roughly 120 per season between those 4 that’s if you think Manny signs for 28-30 mil per and soto at 40-41 mil per…need probably 80 - 100mil for the rotation which would leave 30-70 mil to stay at 230-270 mil for the rest of the roster. How much does Darvish and Snell cost? Joe is 20 mil…if you feel the TOR is worth 25-27 mil the number 2 is worth 22-23 Joe at 20 4 starter 13 mil and your number 5 at 2-3 mil until prospects come up then you can filter and get creative with future rosters
So how would I do it?
C Nola (4.5 proj)
1B Crone (7 proj)
2B Rosario (min)
SS Xander (25.4 mil)
3B Manny (31.8 mil)
RF Tatis (24.2 mil)
CF Grisham (5 proj)
LF Dahl/FA at (2 mil)
DH Ohtani (24 mil)
Bench
Campusano (min)
Howell (min)
Dixon (min)
Carpenter (6)
Azocar (min)
SP Ohtani (24 mil)
SP Musgrove (20 mil)
SP Darvish (25 mil)
SP Martinez (8.6 mil)
SP Groome/Teherán/ traded starter (min/ 5 -10 mil)
SP Morejon (3 proj)
RP Hill (2 proj)
RP Crismat/Capps (min)
RP Suarez (9.2)
RP Castillo (min)
RP Wilson (min)
RP Lugo ( 7.5)
RP/Bench/26th man: Baez/Ornelas/Avila (minimum)
Dead space: Hosmer (12.2)
I have the Padres making the decision of trading Soto next offseason (1 year control) for 2 top prospects and a starter that roster puts the padres at 246.4 -251.4 mil luxury tax payroll.
Ohtani resigned 12 years 576 mil (48 mil per season 24 mil per as a starter and 24 mil per as a DH)
Manny resigned at 11 years 350 mil
Kim traded for two prospects (one SP and one 2B/outfield) after a season where he hits 280 with 20 home runs 20 stolen bases and gold glove defense (tough choice between trading him or Grisham after the season he had and ppl might go bonkers over it but just going to be too expensive to keep)
#3 · December 31, 2022, 3:29 pm
Not sure the Padres would get a blockbuster return for Soto after this season. 1 year control / est. $30MM in ARB for 2024 will not get a lot of bidders and then only from legit contender who actually need his bat. That should be a very small shot group. Will that small shot group even have the desired prospects (and be willing to trade them)
Padres bought 2 1/2 years (3 playoff runs) in Soto PLUS got a playoff run in Bell. For just 1 year of Soto think a substantially lower return. Padres gave up some long term prospects in Hassell, Wood, and Susana (all years away), then Abrams and Gore who still have to prove ML level talent. Voit sealed the deal I guess.
Think we need to plan on Soto being in the Padres' 2024 line-up (at least until the trade deadline).
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Soto's 2023 will be critical. Consensus is that once settled in SD he will rebound to his elite hitting and be an impact bat. Shouldn't there be some doubt though? Before he was traded to SD, his WASH stats were already short of his historical numbers ... wonder why? Missing his hitting coach or the environment in WASH?
FOR THE PRICE ... was not that impressed with his impact on the Padres down the stretch. Today, I rank him behind Manny, Tatis, Bogaerts (and have not seen him), as impactful for he roster.
Hope his 2023 changes my mind.
#4 · December 31, 2022, 5:10 pm
A follow-up on the importance of 2023 on the future of Soto ... and the size of his contract even with Boras as his agent. Just using WAR as the factor, in 2023 Soto ranked 43rd out of 130 qualified hitters. Selected others who were FA this winter:
11.4 ... Judge
6.4 ... Swanson
6.3 ... Turner
6.1 ... Bogaerts
5.4 ... Nimmo
4.4 ... Correa
3.8 ... Soto
Consider what those others signed for and how that tracks with that goal of the largest FA contract for a hitter sought by Boras. Turning down that $440MM offer by WASH may be a mistake.
Now Soto's biggest issue is flat out bad defense. Out of those 130 qualified ... Soto sat at #126 with a -17.7. However, if don't care about defense (or make him a DH) his wRC+ was 145 and ranked 10th. Just to be a bit more picky ... his high wRC+ is driven by a very high OBP (ranked 6th) but a must less impressive SLG (ranked 46th). Does the big money go to OBP or to SLG ... so maybe a soft wRC+.
Note on the Padres, Machado had a better WAR (7.4), clearly better dWAR (+6.9), and a better wRC+ (152) ... so if you think Soto is worth the BIG contract ... what is Machado worth? Or looking at it the other way, Machado should be a lock to opt out to get a lot better than just extending his deal to 10 years / $300MM. For further reference Cronenworth had a better WAR (4.1) and Kim was close (3.7).
Big season (or two) needed for Soto or more like a $300MM player.