Forum
Forum Navigation
Xander Bogaerts
#1 · December 3, 2024, 6:05 am
Cody Stavenhagen ranking baseball's ten worst contracts today at The Athletic
8. Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres
Original deal: 11 years, $280 million
Remaining years:
2025: $25,454,545
2026: $25,454,545
2027: $25,454,545
2028: $25,454,545
2029: $25,454,545
2030: $25,454,545
2031: $25,454,545
2032: $25,454,545
2033: $25,454,545
When the San Diego Padres signed Bogaerts at Winter Meetings in 2022, it was immediately a polarizing decision. On one hand, it was another aggressive move to bring another All-Star to San Diego. On the other hand, 11 years is an awfully long time. Bogaerts is only two seasons into this contract, and though he’s still an above-average player, there are already signs of decline.
In 2024, Bogaerts’ wRC+ fell to 95, below the league average of 100, for the first time since 2017. He homered only 11 times in 111 games. And worse from a value standpoint, Bogaerts has already moved away from shortstop, playing 85 games at second base this past season. Bogaerts returned to shortstop in September, but he’s never graded well at the position. Going forward, the Padres are also paying Manny Machado more than $39 million annually through 2033, so they must hope Bogaerts can fend off further decline as he enters his age-32 season. San Diego will pay him until he is 40.
#2 · December 3, 2024, 6:39 am
Just imagine if Aaron Judge didn't say no.......
#3 · December 3, 2024, 7:36 am
Bad contract … sure at that length / value but will hedge a bit on the writer’s evaluation on Bogaert’s decline … he is not factoring the injuries to Bogaert dragging down his offense. Note that he did not have an ongoing problem with injuries in Boston.
Never thought the Padres signed Bogaerts expecting plus a defensive SS … more a plus offense that would continue for years (based on his BOST time) and a projection that he would move off SS sooner than later.
In 5 or so years Bogaert’s $25MM annual salary will seem more like $15MM with inflation and continue to seem lower as his contract advances. Cannot really project but his future decline in production will be somewhat offset by inflation shrinking the power of his contract. Same goes for Cronenworth and Machado with their deals moving closer to “average” pay at the end.
Not a good contract but have to give it 3-4 more years to fully evaluate. Somewhat his deal along with all the long term deals is the price of doing business for a team that wants to contend. For the record I don’t like any contract that goes beyond age 35.
#4 · December 3, 2024, 7:44 am
On that same list was Trout's contract as well. They are owed a difference of about $7M. Would you do a straight up trade of Bogaerts for Trout? Or is Trout's health history in the last few years too much of a gamble to take the risk? SD needs an OFer and maybe a move off CF to LF would assist in Trout staying healthier?
#5 · December 3, 2024, 8:47 am
Quote from BoosterSD on December 3, 2024, 7:44 amOn that same list was Trout's contract as well. They are owed a difference of about $7M. Would you do a straight up trade of Bogaerts for Trout? Or is Trout's health history in the last few years too much of a gamble to take the risk? SD needs an OFer and maybe a move off CF to LF would assist in Trout staying healthier?
No way … Trout has barely been able to play over the past 4 seasons … older than Bogaerts and more likely to have a continuing decline as he hits his mid-30s. Would bet that Bogaerts out produces Trout over the next 5 years.
Note that Trout is owed $37MM a year in each of his remaining seasons … $12MM more than Bogaerts.
Better to keep Bogaerts and use the $12MM to sign Profar.
#6 · April 29, 2025, 12:34 pm
A comment or two on Bogaerts ... and trying to lower expectations and accept what they have.
First to be clear:
- Padres should have never signed him to that big of a contract
- Padres now have a sunk cost ... no one is going to take that on
- Padres have no-one to replace his current productivity in the near term ... so live with it and spend time on the fixable shortcomings.
Looking at his career:
312/374/496 (870) ... at Fenway
273/336/416 (752) ... on the Road
263/338/406 (744) ... at PETCO
So, take out Fenway and his career PETCO and Road stats are similar resulting in
273/333/408 (741) ... with SD combined Home and Road.
Sure slumping to start 2025 but should heat up BUT unreasonable to think the will do much better than all the non-Fenway work.
So he is really a middle of the pack ML SS ... over paid ... but still better than what half the league has for SS ... and Padres have bigger fish to fry than worrying about Bogaerts.
Reset expectations to reality ... focus on what could be upgraded.
#7 · April 29, 2025, 12:50 pm
And it stands out so much more right now because of the injuries and we went from the best record in baseball to 3rd place in our Division.
#8 · April 29, 2025, 7:33 pm
Quote from fenn68 on April 29, 2025, 12:34 pmA comment or two on Bogaerts ... and trying to lower expectations and accept what they have.
First to be clear:
- Padres should have never signed him to that big of a contract
I said this when they signed him, and will continue to say it, worst contract ever by SD. Yes, worse than Hosmer's contract. Bogaerts is more money, longer time, and later into his bad years, and he is already bad at the plate.
Plus it displaced Tatis; which fortunately has turned out really good, but at the time was F#@$*%g DUMB!!
#9 · April 29, 2025, 10:26 pm
Got to listen to the radio guys a bit tonight ... they said X didn't have any 3 RBI games last season ...