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Blue Jays at Padres
#3 · July 11, 2026, 4:21 am
We need an 8-2 stretch after the break in the worst way
#4 · July 11, 2026, 5:02 am
The two current wild card teams with the poorest record are PHIL and MIA ... both 52-43. Assuming one of the teams slump to one game below .500 for the rest of the season games they would end up with 85 wins.
Padres would have to go 40-28 to pass them if that happened while the other teams ahead right now (STL-WASH-PITT-AZ) don't play well enough to remain ahead of the Padres.
The odds of PHIL or MIA having losing records for the remaining games is very low suggesting the Padres would have to win at a higher pace to catch a playoff slot. Fangraphs right now has the odds at 9.7% (given the way the Padres are playing ... think that is optimistic).
The math is beginning to make the outcome of the season clear. The next two games vs TOR and the fist three after the break vs KC ... if the Padres don't have a winning record while PHIL /MIA are winning ... the reality of the playoffs may be buried before hitting the run vs the ATL/MIA.
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LynchMob
#5 · July 11, 2026, 5:24 am
Yesavage going tonight for TOR ... tough pitcher. Gausman going on Sunday is struggling but so were Biebler and Kelly ... Padre hitting remains unable to score consistently even against pitchers that are not going well. One or two hitters get hot and the others get cold ... net ineffective.
Padres could use a bit of good fortune too ... thought yesterday Sears did well into the 5th but undone by that bunt hit ... then the hit on the INF dribbler ... all before the HR off Brito (and the pitch was not that bad). Padres could have escaped that inning without yielding a run IF ...
Sears looks as though he can be effective as a #5 SP albeit his starts have been against teams that have little offense. Brito looks actually good and it seems as though they are extending him into SP later in the season ... probably another bottom of the rotation option. However, if the team can't score ... can't win with even good #5 pitchers being the 4/5ths of the staff.
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LynchMob
#6 · July 11, 2026, 3:15 pm
Brito optioned ... Waldron activated from IL.
#7 · July 11, 2026, 7:08 pm
Before even looking at any numbers, Song is looking much more like a real MLB player.
Do the numbers show that as well? If Cronenworth can stay steady through the trade deadline, might some contender take a chance on LH, multi-position guy? Keep giving Sung AB's. That is obviously the only way he'll improve and show whether he's legit or not.
#8 · July 11, 2026, 8:58 pm
Padres take game two and Dbacks beat up the Dodgers.
#9 · July 12, 2026, 6:20 am
Quote from WindsorUK on July 11, 2026, 7:08 pmBefore even looking at any numbers, Song is looking much more like a real MLB player.
Do the numbers show that as well? If Cronenworth can stay steady through the trade deadline, might some contender take a chance on LH, multi-position guy? Keep giving Sung AB's. That is obviously the only way he'll improve and show whether he's legit or not.
Cronenworth has an 8 team no trade list.
Could be a factor
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WindsorUK
#10 · July 12, 2026, 7:46 pm
The Padres take the series entering the All-Star break with a .500 record and 3.5 games from a wild card spot. The even gained 2 games on the Dodgers who were swept by the Dbacks.