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2021

Hey Padre fans thanks for allowing me to join. Looking forward to a great 2020 season.

 

W that said, I think we can all agree this 2020 year is going to be tough to gauge w all the new faces. I believe we can compete this year, especially w the NL west wetting somewhat worse as the Dodgers haven't done much(yet) Rockies possibly trading Arenado, along w the rest of their vets like Story and Gray, Giants were  nice story last year w a crap team, but they're not going to be better, and the Dbacks re-tooling but don't even have a bonafide superstar.  A wildcard push is possible, barring a mid season collapse or injury to our best player, Tatis.

 

2021 is where our window opens up for contention, which is where I want to focus.

This is a scenario where all the chips fall into place, which is needed to win a world series...unless you're cheating of course.

 

Off the books will be Richards($8.5), Olivera($8.5), Profar($5.7), Garcia($1.5) Kinsler ($4.5)Approx $30 mil

Also Margot($2.5) and Hedges($3), barring a rebound season will be gone as well.

I also envision Davies($5) getting traded to make room for Gore/Patino and/or TOR arm

Forecasting a Myers($22) bounce back to above leave average player, it's possible we can move Myers full contract w only 2 years remaining while attaching a couple lower level prospects.

 

This will save us close to $60 mil!

Now, we need to extend Yates and Tatis.

3/$33 for Yates($11)

10/$130 for Tatis($13)

 

That leaves us approx $45 mil to play with, not including arbitration increases which should be minimal since the rest of our squad are still not eligible, or on long term contracts.

 

How do we spend the $45+ mil? If we're close to contention, I see us bumping that up a bit.

 

My wish list-

 

Trade for Whit($4) NOW.

Morejon, Potts, Hunt, Naylor

Trade for Clevinger(arb approx $10) NOW

Patino, Lucchessi, Arias, Ona

 

2021 Sign Mookie to 8/300 ($37.5)

Clevinger+ Whit+ Mookie will out around $55 mil added payroll, fills every single.need.

 

Clevinger

Paddack

Lamet

Quantrill

Gore

 

 

Merrifield 2b

Tatis SS

Betts RF

Machado 3b

Pham RF

Hosmer 1B

Mejia C

Grisham CF

Pitcher

 

 

That my friends, is a killer, killer team for years to come.

I know this is a pipe dream, but not impossible. Betts only taking 8 years will be a tough sell, but playing in SD w a great team might entice him. If we got Clevinger and Whit, we could try and trade for him at Deadline as I don't think the Sox will be contending again this year.

 

Thanks for the add, and Go Padres!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agree 2021 has a chance to be special (at least the best season in years) for the Padres.

However, I need to wait until about July this summer before I can see what moves are needed to take them to that next level.

In the early part of 2020, Paddack / Tatis / Mejia / Lamet / Grisham have to demonstrate that they are the building blocks we expect (hope). IF they take that next step in development ... focus can be on the biggest weaknesses.

At the same time, have to see the readiness of Gore / Patino / Trammell at a minimum for impacting 2021.

IF the SP staff develops with Paddack, Lamet, Gore, and Patino ... that frees up money and prospects to go after more critical upgrades. IF Gore and Patino are ready to get their feet wet in late 2020 ... can easily see Richards and Davies being moved.

 

Quote from Brad Mills on January 14, 2020, 8:46 am

Hey Padre fans thanks for allowing me to join. Looking forward to a great 2020 season.

 

W that said, I think we can all agree this 2020 year is going to be tough to gauge w all the new faces. I believe we can compete this year, especially w the NL west wetting somewhat worse as the Dodgers haven't done much(yet) Rockies possibly trading Arenado, along w the rest of their vets like Story and Gray, Giants were  nice story last year w a crap team, but they're not going to be better, and the Dbacks re-tooling but don't even have a bonafide superstar.  A wildcard push is possible, barring a mid season collapse or injury to our best player, Tatis.

 

2021 is where our window opens up for contention, which is where I want to focus.

This is a scenario where all the chips fall into place, which is needed to win a world series...unless you're cheating of course.

 

Off the books will be Richards($8.5), Olivera($8.5), Profar($5.7), Garcia($1.5) Kinsler ($4.5)Approx $30 mil

Also Margot($2.5) and Hedges($3), barring a rebound season will be gone as well.

I also envision Davies($5) getting traded to make room for Gore/Patino and/or TOR arm

Forecasting a Myers($22) bounce back to above leave average player, it's possible we can move Myers full contract w only 2 years remaining while attaching a couple lower level prospects.

 

This will save us close to $60 mil!

Now, we need to extend Yates and Tatis.

3/$33 for Yates($11)

10/$130 for Tatis($13)

 

That leaves us approx $45 mil to play with, not including arbitration increases which should be minimal since the rest of our squad are still not eligible, or on long term contracts.

 

How do we spend the $45+ mil? If we're close to contention, I see us bumping that up a bit.

 

My wish list-

 

Trade for Whit($4) NOW.

Morejon, Potts, Hunt, Naylor

Trade for Clevinger(arb approx $10) NOW

Patino, Lucchessi, Arias, Ona

 

2021 Sign Mookie to 8/300 ($37.5)

Clevinger+ Whit+ Mookie will out around $55 mil added payroll, fills every single.need.

 

Clevinger

Paddack

Lamet

Quantrill

Gore

 

 

Merrifield 2b

Tatis SS

Betts RF

Machado 3b

Pham RF

Hosmer 1B

Mejia C

Grisham CF

Pitcher

 

 

That my friends, is a killer, killer team for years to come.

I know this is a pipe dream, but not impossible. Betts only taking 8 years will be a tough sell, but playing in SD w a great team might entice him. If we got Clevinger and Whit, we could try and trade for him at Deadline as I don't think the Sox will be contending again this year.

 

Thanks for the add, and Go Padres!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Welcome to probably the best Padres boards on the web Brad! All you will really find on here is that everyone talks about Padres Baseball - minors and majors - with a sprinkle of the rest of the league. While I think we all will agree that at this point 2021 is THE year so long as the development of the team continues to push in the right direction (injuries, performance, 2nd-year adjustments, payroll, etc.), I am really intrigued to see how the team performs particularly the first half of the season. If we all remember correctly, last year's team was a 500 team who had just taken 3 of 4 from the Dodgers prior to the All-Star break and prior to the tank job. Barring any end of winter deals (as we all know Preller likes to sling trades with the best of them) this team as it stands now has a lot of question marks with areas of a low floor and high ceiling. I really hope Jayce Tingler's hiring was a slam dunk and I believe that we will see the differences between him and Andy immediately - two things that come to mind are having the players' respect (granted this is earned) and Wil Myers (arguably this ties into the respect category).

The first time one of our players takes a cheap shot (hit by a pitch or a bush-league slide) how will Tingler react? Will he retaliate or just take it and not back up his players and protect them. I think the Padres need to/will show the league they will not be bullied and really have an attitude this season. If he backs up his players, he will get the respect Andy did not command. Also, I have been a big believer that Wil did not want to play for Andy and this has been the main reason for his decline in performance. Just not the same player when he first arrived. Not an excuse for someone being paid millions, however, if you work for a manager you don't respect or enjoy working for, it can really affect performance and I am really hoping this was the case.

Now, as for the above extension and trade proposals just some thoughts:

Will Yates continue to be the dominant reliever through years 34, 35 and 36 (turns 33 before the season starts)?

Will Tatis take 10 years 130 mil? Might take a bit more than that already but this is something that needs to be addressed or else he can get expensive fairly quickly...all depends on his health but I think if you can wait until next offseason and sign him to 10 years 150 mil. Question is will it be too late causing his price to go up even further? It might be worth the gamble to see if his body can hold up over a full season.

As for Whit, I just don't see Kansas City trading him until the All-Star Break. Which would be the perfect time for the Padres to determine where they are and what they need as Fenn noted above. It gives us a chance to see who the real Profar is, see if France can make any adjustments at the big league level and also see how guys like Cronenworth, Abrams, Arias, Potts, and Miller develop (two guys you have included in trade proposals).

Now regarding Clevinger, I am sure EVERYONE would love their hands on him. But there is a reason why a trade hasn't happened: Price/Availability. I really believe the Indians want to give it one more shot at the playoffs this year. That division is still mediocre at best and all they lost from a team that finished 3 games out of the playoffs was Kluber (didn't play) Bauer (traded mid-season) and Puig if I am not mistaken.

Where I could still see a trade or two being made is a deal for Marte (not sure he helps us defensively in center field or if his offensive output outweighs the defensive loss in center field from Margot) and a trade involving Hedges. Those two deals make all too much sense for me unless, like with Myers, there is a Tingler affect with Hedges (doubt it but he was just God awful offensively). The Mets make too much sense though for Hedges in my opinion.

 

My big questions/areas of focus for this season:

Who is Jayce Tingler?

Can Profar be the major difference at second base from the putrid offensive production from that position last season?

Who makes up for the loss of first-half power from Franmil and Renfroe that helped the club be 500?

Can Paddack come back stronger in his second full season without limitations and with an offseason working on the curveball?

Does Lucchessi have a 3rd pitch that is even average he has talked about developing?

Is Davies the pitcher that posted superb numbers away from Milwaukee?

Will Lamet develop into that top of the rotation arm?

Can Richards throw 100 quality innings and net us a good return at the deadline?

When do we see Gore?

How does Grisham develop and perform in his first full season in San Diego?

Will that revamped bullpen be as good as being advertised?

Where does Quantrill fit into this year's roster?

Brad,  I thought this was a VERY strong 1st post!  Welcome to the boards!

Really thought you highlighted 2 things:  Pads are only about what you proposed (3 established vets) from being a REALLY good team for foreseeable future, and that while there is some "devil in the details" with the salary math, it's not insane to propose that Padres could reasonably take on 1 Mega, 1 Medium, and 1 team friendly "low" Vet contract since other contracts can get traded, players will move on as their arb salaries rise, etc.

The big issue I see is, Pads have already traded the 1 "most" expendable of their 6 top 100 prospects they had.  Gore is off limits for essentially anything.  Sounds like Patino & just traded for Trammell are close to that.  I am coming around to seeing that Abrams presence is a big part of what allowed X. Edwards to be traded, and Abrams' future value is likely so much higher than his present value just beginning low A, that he is probably also "no touch".  That leaves only Campusano, who many here would ALSO argue is no touch since Hedges is very likely to depart sometime in the next 12 months.

While our Farm system as a whole remains one of the best, if we're relying upon 4-5 of our top 100 prospects to contribute to Pads as a playoff contender in near future, our "tradeable/available" system goes to Below Average... may theoretically have the ammo to get guys like Merrifield or Clevenger, but if unwilling to use it for them, they're really beyond reach.

Leads me to the question as FA winds down (except for vet OF!) and ST 2020 approaches... What Now?   ...deserves a new thread