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PLAYER EXPECTATIONS

Every year players over perform / under perform their histories ... over 162 games.

Every year players over perform / under perform fans’ expectations (different as they may be fan to fan) ... over 162 games.

Now throw in a 60 game shortened season filled with players that are never consistent (hot/cold spells) and the players that always start slow/fast only to balance that out late in the season.

If we can’t use 162 game histories to project 2020 performance, going to be interesting to see who “excels” and who “flounders” over 60.

So, any guess who among the Padres are best suited to “over perform” and “under perform”?

My guess:

Over perform: Myers ... he can get really hot over a partial season with All-Star level stats

Under perform: Machado ... at least from expectations .... PETCO brings him down

Side: My expectations are low on Grisham and worried I will be right requiring some alternative approach to CF

Side: My expectations are high on Davies (probably alone on this) given his career record AWAY for Miller Park ... could be the real surprise

 

I don't know if these are expectations but it is what I hope to see in this short season from two of our key players.

For Tatis:  I'd like him to get his K rate below 25% rather than almost touch 30% like he did last year.  That probably means don't sell out for power and let the game come to him.  He has the instincts to do it and a better lineup around him puts less pressure on him to do the spectacular every time he comes to the plate.  That should get his contact rate up from the high 60's to the low to mid-70's, making him a much more valuable offensive asset.  On defense, just consistency on the routine plays.  Again, he has the tools but doesn't need to try to flash every time.

For Paddack:  Unusually high HR rate and BB rate last year that far differed from his minor league stats.  If he can get those closer to what he showed in the minors, he will be exceptional and not just very good.  Command just needs to improve a little bit and, of course, 3rd pitch that could at least be ML average would also get superior results.

Both had interrupted or tight controls placed on them last year.  It will be great to see how each progresses this year as key core members of the Padres in this decade.

I'll go out a limb and say that Hosmer will over perform- of course expectations are very low so he doesn't have to do too much to improve on his last two years.

For underperforming, I think Lucchesi will have a rough go this year and eventually be replaced by Quantrill.  Hope it doesn't happen but he's got to come out strong to keep his spot in the rotation.