Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2024, 8:46 am

I do buy into the potential of a good future with this core and the current prospects.

Sasaki would be the game changer as a potential #1 SP. Max the international bonus (does not count for the AAV) and he is counted at league minimum for his first three seasons. Then if the SP prospects develop … Padres suddenly have a cluster of quality trade chips since most teams need young, low cost, quality SP. Hole in the position players … deal a SP prospect to fill with a useful position player.

As it is … except for Kim … not ready to consider going for another FA for big money … might … but only if the other parts did not pan out.

Kim’s current AAV is about $7MM and an extension will probably be in the $18-20MM range for an elite defense SS who can hit just above league average. So really only another $11-13MM in net payroll increase … Padres are about $25-30MM under that tax now and next season the threshold will go up another $5MM. So, extend Kim and still would have near $20MM cushion under the threshold. Kim’s 2024 is important … but given Kim’s overall game and being a fan favorite … would lean to make a reasonable effort to re-sign him.

At that point, the moves may be dependent on the 2024 seasons for Merrill, Marsee, and Pauley (and their new projections). Not out of the question that all three play “well enough” in support of the core (Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts) to justify riding with them at league minimum. If one falters … depending on the position … use the under threshold to shore up that slot (maybe combined with an excess SP to minimize cost / commitment).

I do see multiple paths to success in 2025 and beyond … but the key is the work of Machado, Bogaerts, and Tatis.

Although defensively would seem a Machado - Kim - Cronenworth - Bogaerts would be a preferred set-up … probably not going to happen (at least in 2024). Expect Cronenworth back at 1B but unless the thought is that where each individual plays impacts how they hit … does it really make a difference where they play? Net offense is the same. Sure would like better offense from Cronenworth but not going to over react and will allow the core offense to cover (and hopefully Cronenworth to improve a bit.) If they don’t re-sign Kim, then a different game plan with Cronenworth back to 2B (in either scenario good chance we see Merrill in the OF).

So, I do like the future … the 2024 of Kim and the prospects will create a clearer direction followed by Sasaki next winter. Could be looking very good for 2025 as a complete team.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 28, 2024, 10:07 am

To add what I said regarding 2026 in my Off Season post, 2026 will see the posting of 3b/1b Munetaka Murakami who may be the best power hitter to come out of Japan since Ohtani.   Hits LH and probably limited to 1b vice 3b in the MLB, but will only be 26 when posted and would be the last piece to complete a still productive INF if acquired.  Retreated a little from his 2022 monster year, but expect him to be back on track the next two years.

By 2026, likely will have filled out our OF by trading some of our "surplus" pitching for an equally (potentially) very good young OF unless Head, Zavala or a converted infielder has already claimed one or more spots.  We should have many options and what we currently see as overpays for Suarez and Cronenworth will just be the going rate by 2026 for RPs and 2b men making them very appealing for trade (as long as they perform decently and avoid injury), so there is going to be a lot of flexibility given so many arms with so many varied talents coming forward.

With regard to Kim, I see Merrill/Pauley as more of a replacement of Cronenworth than a replacement for Kim.  Kim would want at least what Lee signed for in SF, so we're talking about 18-20M range but he'll only be 28 for all of the 2024 regular season.  With the injury to Machado and the need to rest Bogaerts, Cronenworth and even a healthy Machado from time to time, Kim would be the first one of the bench if not in a starting role; surely, he will get enough AB's to see the same kind of WAR as last year even if he DH's from time to time.  Further, if Croney regains some of his value, then he likely will be the one traded since his likely replacement on the team will also be a LH batter.  So, I'm for extending Kim or at least not trading him until well into the 2024 season.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 28, 2024, 12:02 pm

If Sasaki actually comes over early he'll be a game changer for whoever gets him. Darvish's presence and being on the west coast could give us a better chance than most. We don't really know what he's looking for or what his priorities might be though. He could just as easily choose the Dodgers or a number of other teams. It would be incredible if we got him. It's not something that should be counted on at all.

As far as the future is concerned it may all really depend on which prospects work out and how well the likes of Manny, Bogaerts, Darvish are able to hold up. If we're talking about 2026 both Machado and Bogaerts will be their age 33 seasons. There aren't a lot of guys who are still highly productive position players. Going off of Fangraphs only Freeman at 7.9, Altuve at 4.0 and Goldschmidt at 3.7 broke 2.5 WAR among those aged 33 or older last year. Only 9 guys broke 2. Only 22 broke 1. There are some solid DHs and role players in the mix. Maybe our guys can beat the odds, but you have to expect they'll be diminished in some capacity.

Darvish will be in his age 39 season. There were only 6 guys that even made an appearance on the mound at that age last year. Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton had good years as starters. Jesse Chavez was good out of the bullpen. The other 3 were Zach Greinke, Adam Wainwright and Rich Hill.

Can they beat the odds? If they can't can the prospects and young guys do enough to offset the drop in production? The answers to those questions are going to define the team's future.

Quote from JasonE135 on January 28, 2024, 3:12 pm

It appears that Sasaki does not have an escape clause in his contract. He needs to play another 3 years in Japan before he can come to MLB as a free agent. That means he would need to be posted by his team. That will not happen. His current team would only get 20% of the value of the contract he signs, which will be limited to the signing team's international bonus money, or a little over $6 million max. I don't see his Japanese team posting him in exchange for a maximum of around $1.5 million total return. It's just not worth it to them.

Quote from sportwarrior on January 31, 2024, 10:48 am

Quote from JasonE135 on January 28, 2024, 3:12 pm

It appears that Sasaki does not have an escape clause in his contract. He needs to play another 3 years in Japan before he can come to MLB as a free agent. That means he would need to be posted by his team. That will not happen. His current team would only get 20% of the value of the contract he signs, which will be limited to the signing team's international bonus money, or a little over $6 million max. I don't see his Japanese team posting him in exchange for a maximum of around $1.5 million total return. It's just not worth it to them.

Is there a source there? I know the early posting clause was always some level of speculation, but I've not seen it confirmed either way.

Also, isn't it funny how, in today's world, it's still incredibly difficult to get information from the other side of the Pacific?

Quote from JasonE135 on January 31, 2024, 1:18 pm

Quote from sportwarrior on January 31, 2024, 10:48 am

Quote from JasonE135 on January 28, 2024, 3:12 pm

It appears that Sasaki does not have an escape clause in his contract. He needs to play another 3 years in Japan before he can come to MLB as a free agent. That means he would need to be posted by his team. That will not happen. His current team would only get 20% of the value of the contract he signs, which will be limited to the signing team's international bonus money, or a little over $6 million max. I don't see his Japanese team posting him in exchange for a maximum of around $1.5 million total return. It's just not worth it to them.

Is there a source there? I know the early posting clause was always some level of speculation, but I've not seen it confirmed either way.

Also, isn't it funny how, in today's world, it's still incredibly difficult to get information from the other side of the Pacific?

Nothing specific, no. It is just a known fact, which he has confirmed himself, that he wants to leave NPB for MLB. If he actually HAD an escape clause, it stands to reason that he would have used it.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 31, 2024, 5:43 pm

Sasaki has already signed his contract with Chiba Lotte Marines for the 2024 NPB season.  I have not seen one way or the other that there is a provision in his 2024 contract that Sasaki could request to be posted after the 2024 season and Chiba would be obligated to grant that request.  In comparison, Munetaka Murakami (3b/1b LH hitter) of the Tokyo Yakult Swallows does have such a provision in his contract that requires his club to post him after the 2025 NPB season; Murakami is arguably the best power hitter to come out of Japan since Ohtani.  See my earlier post of 28 Jan.  The difference between the two is that Sasaki (like Ohtani) will be subject to he International Signing Bonus rules while Murakami will not and will be free to negotiate a contract like Yamamoto did with the Dodgers.

So, the speculation is that is that because such a posting has been done before for a potential superstar (Ohtani) and one of Japan's other stars already has an agreement for posting (Murakami),  Sasaki does have such a provision to make himself available for posting/international bonus signing rules following the 2024 NPB season.  Otherwise, as Jason 135E stated above, Sasaki would have to wait until he is at least 25 and have played at least 6 seasons with his club to be eligible to "request" to be posted (does not automatically mean the club will grant that request).  Otherwise, it takes 9 seasons of service in the NPB (also the KBO) to gain free agency.

Sasaki turned 22 on 03 November and 2024 will be his 4th season with the Swallows.   Having lived in Japan for 16 1/2 years, I would not be surprised at all if Chiba lets him go after the 2024 season - in Japan, it's not always the money.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 5, 2024, 7:16 am

Saw a pic on X(Twitter) with Sasaki wearing a Padres Tee shirt.

So there's that

Quote from dusty on February 11, 2024, 11:03 am

Nomo seen watching Sasaki’s bullpen and speaking with his manager. Hopefully this is foreshadowing at its finest. As Randy alluded to, Japan, is one of the countries/cultures where respect and etiquette is one of its biggest components and virtues. I firmly believe he will be posted. And, as with every market, a business/club/team will want to have as big of an upper hand/advantage over everyone else as possible. The international pool money and resetting the CBT cap is enormous for the Padres.

As for Murakami, that would be a huge get as well and Hosmer’s money coming off at that time will be very nice as well. But that will probably be a more difficult signing than Sasaki, ironically.