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Padres @ Cubs May 6-8
#11 · May 8, 2024, 2:09 pm
Great game by Cease today…he just looks so smooth…I know he is under control for a few years but AJ really should be thinking about getting him locked up for more than that..Hosmer money should be off by then
#12 · May 8, 2024, 2:18 pm
Cease was dominating today ... 7 innings / 1 hit / 0 runs ... sure looks worth the trade for 2024-25.
Suarez gets his 12th save in 12 opportunities ... has given up only 1 run in 15 appearances ... maybe Preller was smart in signing him to that multi-year deal that now looks like a very club favorable deal.
Padres again take a series vs a > .500 team AWAY from PETCO. That should be a good indication for the future and for the playoffs 🙂
#13 · May 8, 2024, 3:26 pm
What I like about Cease, is that Preller got him almost at the end of Spring Training, meaning that whether we like it or not, we can't deny that he is always looking for a way to improve the ballclub, regardless of the budget at hand. Also, I do believe getting the season series from the Cubs could mean a lot down the stretch.
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MrPadre19
#14 · May 8, 2024, 4:00 pm
What a boring game for all those Cubs fans that sat there for 2+ hours.
Not for us though!
Cease and desist Cubs hitters!
#16 · May 9, 2024, 5:13 am
Quote from 3fingersplit on May 8, 2024, 2:09 pmGreat game by Cease today…he just looks so smooth…I know he is under control for a few years but AJ really should be thinking about getting him locked up for more than that..Hosmer money should be off by then
I would love a 5 year deal for Cease but not sure we can afford him. I see about 25 to 30 million coming off the books next year . The Xander deal just keeps looking worse and worse .
#17 · May 9, 2024, 8:18 am
Quote from 84padres on May 9, 2024, 5:13 amQuote from 3fingersplit on May 8, 2024, 2:09 pmGreat game by Cease today…he just looks so smooth…I know he is under control for a few years but AJ really should be thinking about getting him locked up for more than that..Hosmer money should be off by then
I would love a 5 year deal for Cease but not sure we can afford him. I see about 25 to 30 million coming off the books next year . The Xander deal just keeps looking worse and worse .
Not likely they can afford him given the other priorities and payroll structure … the dollars may be in the zone but he is only 28 and just first FA year is at age 30 … expect him to push for a deal including at least 7 FA years through age 36.
Don’t see quite as much wiggle room in 2025 (on a CBT/AAV basis) since only losing FA Profar ($1MM), Carpenter ($1MM), Higashioka ($2.2MM), Solano (min), Wade (min), and Kim ($5MM … $7MM less $2MM for the opt out). Add that to the about $10MM under the CBT and hits just over $20MM but keep in mind that they have to actually replace the 5 FA and deal with ARB increases for Cease, King, Arraez, Campusano, De Los Santos, and Morejon. Arraez, Cease, and King are in their final ARB year so should be major increases that collectively will take out the available AAV space. Actually if Cease continues on his CY Young level and Arraez gets another batting title … they will take the Padres well over the CBT limit. I had Cease only increasing $4MM ($8MM to $12MM) and Arraez $16MM (o to $16MM adjusting for the Miami pay down in 2024). Plus have not re-signed Kim or Profar.
Don’t see a lot they can do to cover that under the CBT (unless they trade Cease or Arraez) and/or don’t resign Kim and Profar (which presents its own problem in the line-up).
However, once they get to 2026 … with Hosmer dropping off finally … and Cease, Arraez, and King FA with Suarez likely opting out … some different options especially if some of the prospect actually develop.
A potential strategy is to ensure they stay under the CBT in 2024 … penalties re-set … go over the CBT in 2025 (maybe the last hurrah for this roster) … and let the pieces fall as they will in 2026 to return under the CBT. Looking at the FA after 2024 and 2025 and add in Shildt is only under contract through 2025 … plus Preller only under contract through 2026 … and now without Siedler at the helm … we might see some creativity to match a winning shot in 2025 and the financial realities over time … the winter is coming after 2025 that can change everything. That is just before the CBT is over and renegotiating (and lockout / strike) begins. CBA ends after the 2026 season so might expect not a lot of long term commitments in the winter of 2025 until they know the rules of engagement in the new CBA.
#18 · May 9, 2024, 12:45 pm
I believe the Padres will have no issue going over the CBT limit for the right player. Getting under the CBT has everything to do with the international market and Sasaki IMO and a little bit about the TV deal that fell through bringing in less revenue than expected.