Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 31, 2019, 7:46 am

Quote from TatisJr on December 31, 2019, 7:25 am

Many of you here seem to have more faith in France than I do. Granted it was a small sample size, but I just wasn’t impressed with him. He seems like a AAAA player to me. I think Myers and Hosmer will be given an opportunity to play everyday to start the year. If they don’t hit I think platoons will be implemented.

Wasnt France like .935 OPS in Sept...maybe he figured some stuff out..i mean you don't hit .400 in AAA PCL or not by accident ..still woukd like to move him.. But can he be Rendon like? With Manny here perhaps someone else will find out..but I woukd think his trade value as a low cost controlable "interesting" fallback for whomever loses the Donaldson sweepstakes makes a lot of sense

Quote from onlypads on December 31, 2019, 7:51 am

Probably not enough. Have to add a Bolanos type I am thinking.

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2019, 8:06 am

Quote from TatisJr on December 31, 2019, 7:25 am

Many of you here seem to have more faith in France than I do. Granted it was a small sample size, but I just wasn’t impressed with him. He seems like a AAAA player to me. I think Myers and Hosmer will be given an opportunity to play everyday to start the year. If they don’t hit I think platoons will be implemented.

Not so much faith in France being a regular but recognizing the may be the best current RHH hitting bench option for PH and platooning with Hosmer. Plus ... for insurance purposes is the back-up 3B option if Machado needs a day off.

Once Profar leaves after the season ... the next INF options are Cronenworth and Quiroz ... both LHH and Miller who is the sole legit RHH option. If Arias arrives in 2021 ... probably a starter not a bench / PH option. France ... has some value given this roster structure. IF Miller develops ... might be different in 2021.

Quote from TatisJr on December 31, 2019, 8:14 am

I don’t write guys off with such a small sample size, it’s just my initial eye test with France that didn’t impress me. I certainly hope I’m wrong about him. He struck out quite a bit and hardly ever drew a walk. Not a good combo. Again, his first taste of the bigs and small sample size, but he will have to fix that. AJP wants high walk rates and low K rates. France did have an impressive opposite field bomb in SF that caught my eye. I love guys that go with the outside pitch and drive it oppo. When Myers is at his best he’s driving the ball to the right center gap with power. Hopefully he gets back to that in 2020.

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2019, 8:26 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 31, 2019, 7:46 am

Quote from TatisJr on December 31, 2019, 7:25 am

Many of you here seem to have more faith in France than I do. Granted it was a small sample size, but I just wasn’t impressed with him. He seems like a AAAA player to me. I think Myers and Hosmer will be given an opportunity to play everyday to start the year. If they don’t hit I think platoons will be implemented.

Wasnt France like .935 OPS in Sept...maybe he figured some stuff out..i mean you don't hit .400 in AAA PCL or not by accident ..still woukd like to move him.. But can he be Rendon like? With Manny here perhaps someone else will find out..but I woukd think his trade value as a low cost controlable "interesting" fallback for whomever loses the Donaldson sweepstakes makes a lot of sense

Would some team take France ... yes. Would some team give the Padres anything more than "filler" long shot in return ... no. If he is dealt, it will be as part of a deal where a better prospect is the lead piece. (of course, if the Padres see little value in France even as "insurance" they could just jettison to clear roster space).

France is just a tough one to label. Not highly regarded after a fine college career (low draft pick) ... but continued to hit his way through the system and to AAA. Still no love on any prospect list. Crushed AAA pitching but that could be just be as a AAAA hitter or maybe he does know how to hit ... can't tell unless he gets some more ML ABs (only 201 PA in part time roles). Did finish with a strong Sept but that is a small sample size.

Stepping back .. if all you are looking for is a better than average bench option for PH/3B/1B at a low cost ... France may be your guy. Not as though there are a lot of players that fill that role well.  Can he be more ... maybe ... but needs to play in the ML and that is not likely with the Padres.

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2019, 8:35 am

Quote from TatisJr on December 31, 2019, 8:14 am

I don’t write guys off with such a small sample size, it’s just my initial eye test with France that didn’t impress me. I certainly hope I’m wrong about him. He struck out quite a bit and hardly ever drew a walk. Not a good combo. Again, his first taste of the bigs and small sample size, but he will have to fix that. AJP wants high walk rates and low K rates. France did have an impressive opposite field bomb in SF that caught my eye. I love guys that go with the outside pitch and drive it oppo. When Myers is at his best he’s driving the ball to the right center gap with power. Hopefully he gets back to that in 2020.

On the other hand, France in his 5 minor league seasons (over 2000 PA) he had a .389 OBP and his K% was less than 20% ... if there was a concern in the minors was his lack of power for a 3B. BA of .294.

So is he a AAAA hitter or a 25 year old who continues to develop once he gets ML time? No idea ... yet.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 31, 2019, 10:28 am

Several people have commented about not relying on Lamet and Richards for full seasons this year. We can’t. They are both in their first year back from Tommy John. They should be on innings restrictions like Paddack was last year. Fortunately, we have Patino and Gore who should be ready to make their ML debuts later in the year.

Last sentence is true... but they are also going to be strictly limited to around 150 IP... 4 of our top 5 ultimate potential SP are innings limited in 2020.  Next best Morejon might be limited to 100.  It's the next group of guys = "BOR" where there's no innings limitations....

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2019, 11:06 am

Not as worried about SP innings as most given given the general landscape across MLB. Only 33 pitchers were > 180 innings last season and only 75 were over 150 innings (about 2 1/2 per team average).

Davies pitched 159,2 innings and Lucchesi pitched 163.2 innngs. Then assuming Paddack is freed to go full time given he pitched 140 innings ... Padres as a base line pretty good.

Clearly the issue will be Richards and Lamet and how they are limited .... but Lamet did get 13 starts and pitched the most innings (68) for the Padres in the second half ... he may be positioned already to go 150 with a full slate of starts. Richards is the real TBD.

Padres have a deep pen ... and Strahm, Johnson, Quantrill can all be multiple innings options if the need to get Richards out after 5 as a limit ... and Quantrill can spot start if the want Richards to skip a start hear or there. Actually that works for any of the SP.

Not a stretch for me to see 4 of the SP going 150 innings plus with potentially 3 nudging 170 innings plus.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 31, 2019, 11:11 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2019, 6:08 am

2B may be an interesting position for the Padres in 2020. Trading for and signing Profar for $5.7MM would seem to lock him into 2B ... but looking at on-field performance ... maybe not as a full time 2B. Could see a lot of Garcia at 2B although he has no track record as a regular 2B .... more of a spot starter. Consider stats from the last 3 seasons:

vs. LHP (25%): Profar (113 wRC+ / 358 OBP) .... Garcia (39 wRC+ / 266 OBP)

vs. RHP (75%): Profar (88 wRC+ / 303 OBP) .... Garcia (98 wRC+ / 363 OBP)

add that in about the same amount of innings at 2B Garcia's dWAR (4.3) and defensive runs saved (+6) are substantially better than Profar's dWAR (1.9) and DRS (-8).

So, on the surface, would think it is Garcia that would be playing the bulk of the time against RHP with a greater OBP and better defense. Makes the $5.7MM for Profar (although only for one year) a bit questionable. On the other hand a platoon could produce needed OBP at 358 v LHP and 363 v RHP and maybe a role higher in the batting order (2nd?).

 

This has been obvious to me for awhile... But didn't know Garcia was SO bad (probably small sample) vs LHP.  Profar is "more" playable vs RHP than Garcia is vs LHP, so may be more of a true 50/50 playing time split.  Profar will definitely be @ 2B vs LHP,   leaving only France or a C (but not Hedges!) to sub at 1B for Hosmer vs LHP.

Profar did have a strong 2nd half, and his power is impressive: > 1 XBH every 10 AB last 2 full seasons.  I get what the potential was, and maybe it is FINALLY coming together for him.  There is a real chance he "breaks out".  But Profar trade is by far my least favorite move of the offseason for SD.  That was influenced by subsequently getting Cronenworth, though.   Buddy Reed & Austin Allen may have been fringy/blocked type prospects in 25-30 range in Pads system, but move up in A's system:  Reed #22, A. Allen likely 15-20 if rated as prospect.  Years of cheap control of 2 guys with warts/limitations for 1 year @ 5.7 MM of Profar as a non-tender guy?

Batting the platoon 2nd is interesting idea, so I dug a little.  Garcia's low power, good OBP profile fits either top or bottom of order.  Was surprised he led off so much for Pads, and was OK doing so... .346 OBP.   Could actually see him 1st/2nd vs LHP.  But Profar's much greater power/lower OBP career arc profiles more to 6-7 range... Oakland batted him mostly 7/8 in AL.