Quote from MrPadre19 on October 3, 2020, 6:01 am

If Clevinger can pitch who do we take off the DS roster?

I'm guessing a bat like Campy or Mateo?

I think if that's the choice we keep the speedster right?

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 3, 2020, 8:51 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 3, 2020, 6:01 am

If Clevinger can pitch who do we take off the DS roster?

I'm guessing a bat like Campy or Mateo?

I think if that's the choice we keep the speedster right?

 

Yup that's the 1st move:   P  for Campusano.    They will definitely at least do that:  +1 P for -1 position player.

But think these guys are vulnerable to getting replaced on the roster too:   Altavilla (didn't pitch), Patino, Mateo, Garcia

Have to have SOME position players INF/OF, but theoretically if G. Allen were there he could be the #4 OF & Profar would be the primary option for all INF positions.   Garcia such a reliable PH, hard to see him not there.  Mateo is there 100% to be the PR late in a tie game where someone walks.  Could win a game or series for us.

Hats off  to Patino yesterday, but his last out gave me a heart attack!  Thought it was gone.... shaky.  Just think for a 5 game series they need more length than what he's provided most of the year .  Just b/c Altavilla didn't pitch doesn't mean he doesn't have an important role; have to stick someone in there to soak innings if losing badly; MORE important in a 5 game series.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 3, 2020, 9:39 am

Agree that de-activating Campusano for a pitcher for a 5 game set without starting pitchers is logical. With the same logic, can't de-activate Altavilla or Patino. Clearly the mix depends on how Lamet and Clevinger are projected next Tuesday morning.

Even if Lamet and/or Clevinger are healthy enough to be activated ... has to be some concern as to how long they can go in their game resulting still in pressure on the pen.

Also have to consider Kershaw and Urias are LHP ... two starters that likely will sit Moreland and start Profar ... plus LAD have some decent LHRP. That scenario somewhat negates Moreland and Garcia even for PH duties ... assuming a LH PH is ever needed with this line-up. Since Moreland would start vs RHSP ... maybe Garcia is a bit at risk if they choose to go to 16 pitchers / 12 position players. That also would then make sense to keep Mateo for both OF/INF/PR duties combined with Profar since only 2 non-catchers on the bench and potentially Profar is used to PH for Moreland vs a LHP late.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 3, 2020, 10:18 am

Besides the questions regarding Lamet and Clevinger, how healthy is Strahm?  With a number of LH hitters in the lineup, we are going to need some LH relief.   Hill has looked a little shaky lately and Pomeranz shouldn't be overused.  If Strahm can't go or his effectiveness is diminished because of that balky knee, I'm looking at bringing in Castillo as a replacement or addition.  I'm not sure why Altavilla wasn't used against the Cardinals, but if they didn't trust him against them, can they trust him against the Dodgers?  My guess is that Castillo is brought up to replace either Strahm or Altavilla.  Personally, I'd leave Paddack off the roster but that's probably not going to happen; he has yet to hold himself accountable for his recent poor pitching performances.

Quote from fenn68 on October 3, 2020, 11:00 am

Another to the wire call with Strahm I guess .... 4 days to recover to a serviceable level before the call is made and I guess some strategy as to whether if not used in game #1 or #2 ... even in better shape for the rest of the games.

Hill always looks shaky to me but except for a couple of outings vs. SF seems to get the job done. Think he went 15 outings with only 1 run given up prior.

Just not sure about Castillo ... no idea how he worked at the alternate site ... so no matter his potential a big risk to add him after no real competitive pitching since 2018 unless there is a clear need. Hard to pull someone who is healthy and performing decently.

======

Maybe more likely is if Lamet and Clevinger are not activated (maybe even if only one) they activate Gore for a starting role ... as it stands Davies, Paddack, Richards (if back to SP), then X and Y. ONE maybe be a bullpen day but TWO when the top 3 starters are long shots to go deep. Don't think they like Gore in a relief role.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 4, 2020, 9:24 am

Agree that de-activating Campusano for a pitcher for a 5 game set without starting pitchers is logical. With the same logic, can't de-activate Altavilla or Patino.

I wasn't suggesting subtracting a "net" Pitcher from the roster.  I was suggesting given the Padres exact circumstances these 2 guys are the most vulnerable (plus Strahm-but for health reasons) to be exchanged for a different P.

For example, say both Clevinger & Lamet return.  1st player off roster probably Campusano, but 2nd player could be one of these two.  That would be "net" +1 Pitcher.

Even if C & L are NOT ready; given how the 1st series went, I think it's fair to say can you get more innings in a 5 game series out of someone else than these guys.  Everyone's in love with Patino, but he scares the @(^$ out me... his 1.0 "clean" IP: a double, a walk, and a crushed near 3 run HR to dead CF.... I just don't think you can look at him & say "yeah, he MIGHT give us 4-5 good IP in a start".  Altavilla's probably where he "belongs" as better than the RP's left off the playoff roster, but less reliable than all of the guys that did pitch.  If any game had gone to extra innings, would have seen him.  Would also be the "garbage time" (losing big) guy, which didn't happen in the 3 game series, but is more likely in a 5-game.

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 4, 2020, 9:59 am

Quote from Randy Manese on October 3, 2020, 10:18 am

Besides the questions regarding Lamet and Clevinger, how healthy is Strahm?  With a number of LH hitters in the lineup, we are going to need some LH relief.   Hill has looked a little shaky lately and Pomeranz shouldn't be overused.  If Strahm can't go or his effectiveness is diminished because of that balky knee, I'm looking at bringing in Castillo as a replacement or addition.  I'm not sure why Altavilla wasn't used against the Cardinals, but if they didn't trust him against them, can they trust him against the Dodgers?  My guess is that Castillo is brought up to replace either Strahm or Altavilla.  Personally, I'd leave Paddack off the roster but that's probably not going to happen; he has yet to hold himself accountable for his recent poor pitching performances.

Given they DIDN'T take Strahm off roster as injured before Game 3 despite the DIRE need for a fresh arm, I have to believe he's on the playoff roster.  I was thinking about the idea of him going as an "opener" depending where the LAD put their LH bats:

In game 1 of the Wild Card series they were:  2-Seager, 4-Muncy, 6-Bellinger, 8- A. Rios .... but that was vs a LH SP.

Looking at a few other games, this 2-4-6 in their lineup is pretty typical.... and they always have Betts sitting there up top.

... so maybe not.

 

Quote from Ben Davey on October 5, 2020, 10:30 am

One reason for not putting Strahm on the IL is Mookie Betts.

Betts has 12 TOTAL basses in 64 AB against LHP (SLG .218 against them)

vs. RHP .323/.385/.677
(in fact most of their starters not named Pollock, Hernandez, Muncy, and Joc do REALLY well vs RHP)

vs LHP Betts is .200/.313/.218
(really ONLY Pollock, Beaty, and Rios have done really well against LHP)

Tells you that the more LHP you can throw against them the better the result.  Which means expect to see a lot of Strahm, Hill, Pom... maybe they give a start to both Morejon and ... GORE.

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2020, 11:08 am

You tantalize with the mention of Gore! However, could fit.

Reports suggest Clevinger has a good chance of being activated but not Lamet. 5 games if 5 days will stress the pen even without multiple "bullpen days".

Clevinger, Davies, Paddack, Morejon(L), and Gore (L) ... not in that order ... might fit with an army of RP considering a good chance few of the starts will go a full 6. Still leaves them with Strahm, Hill, Pomeranz from the left side.

Add Clevinger and Gore ... drop Campusano and Altavilla?

Could consider going really short position players and drop Garcia (not going to need a LHH PH) and also activate Castillo as another LHRP option.