Quote from fenn68 on July 8, 2026, 4:22 pm

Given what we clearly have returning (not much) ... probably need to focus on 2-3 SP to rely on as "upper rotation" and just fill the rest as best they can ... since the first part will cost money.

1. Go to King and his agent and offer a restructured contract buying out his player options for 2027 and 2028 ... now at a lofty $28MM and $30MM with a guaranteed deal for more years.
2. Make a strong offer to Morejon and buy out his FA with the commitment to convert him to a SP (he is still in his 20s and effective ... worth the risk).
3. Miller ... somewhat depends on who they can get in return (if a TOP pitching prospect near ML ready plus others might trade him for the lower cost longer control aspect) but if no knock you socks off deal would try the conversion to SP ... again reasonable young and low cost for a SP with three more years of control. Take the risk on emerging closers out of Rodriguez, Morgan, Estrada, or one of the rising MiLers. Preller is good at finding closers out of nowhere.

Gambles to be sure ... but a King - Miller - Morejon top 3 in the rotation COULD be very good. At that point a scramble for #4-5 with Brito - Vasquez - Sears plus any other rebound FA along with the potential (low) that Musgrove recovers and/or Pivetta does not opt out and recovers.

Those top 3 ... are young enough to stabilize the SP for the next 3 years (or more) at a not unreasonable cost or extreme long term commitment.

SP of quality (and reliability) are few with a major demand ... so maybe an early move on King and Morejon can lock them down before being inticed by other teams.

Side: don't even consider Skubal ... will be 30 ... is making already $32MM ... and is seeking a 10 year / $400MM deal. Padres could fill a lot of holes (and they have many) with $40MM per year ... and winning takes a team not one player (ask Manny).

For 2027 don't see a new prospect name ready nor do I see any trade chips that would get a quality ML ready SP.

A couple of internal longer shots ... Morgan has the stuff for a SP (not sure on health) ... Brito actually was a good SP prospect for the NYY and who knows post TJ surgery ... Vasquez WAS serviceable last year at least for a #4 type might rebound ... and Sears when you look at his OAK days was only slightly below average BUT did pitch almost every turn and did deliver innings and that may be useful as a #5.

Not an ideal picture ... but COULD look good if King - Morejon - Miller cooperate.

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2026, 12:58 pm

We also have to guess the 2027-28 status of Pivetta and King ... will they exercise their opt outs (available at the end 2026 and 2027 for each).

As it stands, Pivetta is not close to returning ... I think Pivetta is a bit ahead but not yet ready for any intense work. So, can't evaluate until maybe Aug / Sep. Then if he does return to pitch in Aug / Sept need to see how well he pitches (could be as many as 8 starts).

How good does he have to pitch in the remainder of this season for him to opt out? Decision is his.

Pivetta .. options for ages 34 and 35 seasons .... $14MM and $18MM. He has to make the call as to whether he can top 2 years / $32MM as a FA if just "average" or can he leverage 2027 into a strong rebound and top 1 year / $18MM in 2028.

King ... options for ages 32 and 33 seasons ... $28MM (with a $5MM buyout) and $30MM. He has to make the call as to whether he can top 2 years / $53MM while pitching the way is is now or can he leverage 2027 into a strong year and top a 1 year / $30MM in 2028.

Both have to factor in the potential of 2027 losing games due to lockout and reducing their chances to showcase a strong 2027. Push against that, is that A LOT of teams want pitching and will pay ... maybe more / maybe a longer term guaranteed deal.

The opt out decisions happen right after the World Series (and before any negotiation in the FA market) ... not an easy call for them if just pitching "OK". At least the Padres will know early.

If this goes the Padres way ... both opt IN ... and pitch well in 2027. Padres get another year to reset the SP.

Quote from Randy Manese on July 15, 2026, 9:08 am

I agree with virtually all your points though it's hard to ignore outside influences like the expiring CBA.  The biggest influence is new ownership expectedly bringing in big bucks to invest as well as a new television deal and naming rights to what is currently PETCO.

Rotation decisions have to start with King.  I think he really wants to remain here because of the city and the make-up of the organization and staff, i.e., Preller and Niebla in particular.  If either of those two people are out, then that would dramatically affect his decision.  Realistically, 28M and 32M is not that far off for a person his age and with his periods of inconsistency and injury history.  I concur with restructuring the contract to add more years, maybe averaging 35M for 4 years starting in 2027.  Would still head our rotation but likely not be #1 for another team, hence, anything over 35M a year would be a surprise over 4 years.

Morejon - the player who has been in the Padres system the longest, this is his team and they have stuck with him during some really tough times early on in his career.  I believe he wants to stay here and also is willing to give it a try as a SP to increase his potential salary ceiling as he heads into his late 20's.  I can see him signing for 2 years at substantially more than he's making now with the understanding that this additional compensation will come with his conversion to starting pitching.  I'm thinking 20M spread over 2027 and 2028.   I think he can be a mid-rotation SP, but has to show the stamina and keep injury-free.

Miller - trade possibly the best RP in baseball or convert him to a SP?  I don't think he wants to go back to starting so I'd get a really fantastic haul for him or let him continue as our closer.  The reason for even thinking about a trade is injury - a guy that throws that hard and with that much torque on his arm is an injury waiting to happen.  Don't know when or how serious, but isn't that the case with any pitcher no matter how successful?   Remains a closer for SD or is traded; not a SP candidate.

Pivetta is an interesting case because there is so much uncertainty regarding his health and his track record as a SP if you discount his one year in San Diego.  Fort this reason, I think Pivetta will gamble on himself and re-up for one year to re-establish his value in the open market.  At his age, he wants that one last big contract and that's not going to happen after his injury this year.  Looks to line up behind King, but wants to establish himself as at least a #2 to get the big bucks.

Musgrove - Wild card.  If you get any innings out of him before his contract expires next year, then that is a bonus.  Even if he does return, how effective do we think he will be?  If healthy, likely a #4 or #5 SP at this point in his career.

Vasquez - Have teams caught up with him after early 2026 success or can he still be a serviceable SP?  I think at best he's a #3 but more likely #4 going forward.  Don't count him out - very determined and willing to make adjustments.

Quote from Randy Manese on July 15, 2026, 10:02 am

Other SP candidates - I believe that Padres will make a trade to land a SP with at least one more year before free agency.  Likely give up someone like Schoolcraft or Mayfield or even Mendez along with one of their top hitters, maybe Wideman.    That could slot us a #2 but more likely a #3 man for the rotation for this year and next.

Have to believe that one or more of the candidates signed to patch up the rotation in 2026 will be carried over - Buehler, Giolito, Canning or Marquez for depth purposes, if nothing else.  Don't think they'll be a high demand for any of them.  Not looking for either Brito or Waldron to go back to starting but not totally done with Sears or Hart as bottom of the rotation possibilities.

None of the Padres minor league pitchers are ready for the big leagues or even AAA for that matter.  Will have to sign some sleeper free agent or make trades for pitchers on their downside but could still have one or more good years left.

In short, a lot of if's and uncertainties but Preller always seems to find a way to keep the team competitive and has Niebla to try to make who he signs better.  Got to cross our fingers and hope for the best.

 

 

 

Quote from cnystrom62 on July 18, 2026, 5:12 pm

How about Mason Miller as a starter?

It is looking more and more likely that the Padres are going to be sellers at the trade deadline.

From what I have read the big chip and the big question is Mason Miller. Even though he is the best closer in baseball, he is not much good if the team is mostly losing, or they are out of the playoffs.

They could trade him at the deadline for a haul of prospects, but I have read that the Padres are unlikely to get a haul like the one that they gave up to get him.

Another option is to stretch him out to join the rotation. There was some talk of doing this before the season started (and I wonder how much difference it would have made had they done so?)

An idea I had is that if they do decide to keep and stretch him out, why not start now (or whenever the raise the white flag)? Start by making him an opener and then just keep going deeper in the innings and pitch count each time his turn comes up.

The Padres might find a dominant starter for next year without trading away prospects or spending a lot more money.

If the experiment does not work out, I am sure the Padres can move him back to closer next year, or trade him to a team that needs a closer.

This is assuming that he is open to the idea. No need to piss off your only All-Star.

This is of course, if we even have a season at all next year, but I am hoping.

What do you think?

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2026, 11:11 pm

Preller’s problem is building a competitive five man SP staff for 2027. At the trade deadline he will not know the future of King, Pivetta, or Musgrove. Without them, little chance he can build a five man rotation.  Just not enough quality SP available.

without SP … converting Miller for only one spot would seem a waste of an asset the same as a RP  … so depending on the offer … trade him at the deadline or wait until the offseason. His trade value keeps declining as control is less. Plus no guarantee he can be an elite SP.

Also if writing off 2027, should trade King before opt out … he should get a decent prospect in return.