Quote from fenn68 on July 14, 2020, 8:06 am

Looking at the limited ML stats from 2019 ... and using that to indicate the "favorite" that a contender has to beat out ... wRC+ RHP/LHP:

94 / 84 .... Grisham (CF) likely gets first shot a full time starter since although hyped Olivares has no ML track record

91 / 125 ... Profar (2B) likely full time 2B without a clear superior option

That gets the focus on DH (which will be used to "rest" starters as well as having players DH):

103 / 52 .... Garcia (UT) ... good OBP so maybe DH vs. RHP only (frees Profar to the OF if needed)

78/ 96 .... France (UT) ... decent option vs LHP plus emergency catcher (frees Profar to the OF if needed)

Then Mateo makes the roster (out of options) as the back-up INF/OF and PR leaving one more slot when they drop to 26 ... Naylor (89/79) has the burden of no good defensive option .... Olivares / Torrens no track record from ML 2019 ... Cordero (see above). Doesn't look good for either Naylor or Cordero (when down to 26).

I would give the advantage to Olivares being a RHH who can defensively support Grisham in CF plus the other OF slots with some PR skills. I would worry about backing CF with non-CF such as Mateo, Profar, or Myers ... may have been there is not a reason to think they can be good defensively.

Could see Torrens and Naylor being on the 30 man then being dropped.

Quote from fenn68 on July 14, 2020, 8:26 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 14, 2020, 7:46 am

I saw somewhere that Cordero has really struggled in these scrimmages.

I don't know how much that will factor in to his making the 30.

It's the only thing Tingler has to go on so it obviously matters...but it's also time to find out if

he can be a major league regular also.

But,it's also only a 60 game season....can't spend any time determining if young players can handle it when every win counts that much more than normal.

Lot's of if's, and's, and but's this season for this teams youngsters it seems.

 

The final decision may be Tingler's ... but he has some retuning coaches ... the ML scouting department .... the analytics department ... all are giving him their scouting reports on the strengths and weakness of each player. Plus Tingler did have early ST to make some of his own observations.

So the summer camp adds the element of additional input but not the only data point.

Given Tingler's play every game as an elimination game ... TO START the season can't see how the organization can gamble on an unproven player (or more an unproven player with clear holes in his game) if there is a more reliable alternative. IF they fall out of contention ... probably see a lot of Cordero, Torrens, Olivares, Mateo, Naylor, and even Cronenworth.

Given some teams will be "hot" in August (some teams always start hot) the race for the NL West and the wild card could be effectively over even if the Padres are at .500 with only a month to play. Can't afford to lose early. Better to be one of the "hot" teams in August.

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 14, 2020, 9:18 am

Cordero / Naylor is a tough call.  I believe one should make a 30-man roster, but spot has to be earned.  Can't head into a 60 game season with other roster alternatives if a guy has a tough camp.  I keep going back & forth, but can't see Naylor taking the field anywhere this season with Pham in LF.  Too dicey to spot start in RF.  Backup @ 1B, but could just get recalled if something happened to Hos.

Cordero can "do more"; run, defend, obviously elite exit velocity at times.  But more swing & miss.  If I had to see one guy PH, Naylor would be the obvious choice.  But DH even though Naylor is a better hitter, I think I'd lean towards Cordero.  To me the deciding factor might be age; Cordero's 3 years older.  Not an ideal sink or swim scenario for him, but no development / AAA needed for him to "get on track" this year.   So I lean towards Franchy.

Quote from fenn68 on July 14, 2020, 10:29 am

Interesting given the same facts ... I would lean toward Naylor (although neither may be the best option).

Since putting the best team to win now on the field is my #1 goal ... any "development" considerations are secondary.  At least Naylor as a PH/DH has a bit of ML success hitting the ball ... Cordero is all POTENTIAL that has not shown in the ML with big hitting issues with LHP, strikeouts, high leverage positions ... would severely limit his value as a PH.

Even on a development plan .. Naylor is younger and has more control time plus was considered the better hitting prospect (bat to ball contact) and maybe he should be the one getting the ML reps if the DH is here to stay.

Good chance neither make the 26 man and that last spot goes to Olivares ... best defense in the OF and a RHH if needed to work with Grisham as a LHH.

Note that Naylor has 6 ML control years left ... Cordero 3. So, whomever gets optioned will preserve those control years ... if they are both optioned for periods of time ... both remain controlled. Also, Naylor has 3 option years and Cordero has 2 option years so both could still be optioned in 2021 for roster flexibility even if both are optioned in 2020. Doubt those issues are important in a win now scenario but they are there to be considered.

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 14, 2020, 10:37 am

Ugggh... Hedges drives me crazy!   He apologizes & "holds himself accountable" for partying without a mask (not the only guy, I'm sure, but you ARE the team's Union rep!)... but he does it in a 'roundabout' way where he sounds like he's giving himself permission for making a "mistake".

Then in similar fashion, makes it sound as if it's his gyrations/changes he makes to his approach when he's "struggling" (i.e. always) that are the issue, so he's just going to "live or die" with his approach.... which almost all agree IS the issue.   Most think Hedges sells out for power.  It worked to a degree initially (35 XBH 2017), but his approach is so predictable it's partly to blame for his continued inability to get on base, AND the power has declined (30 XBH 2018 down to only 20 last yr).  P's (especially LHP I remember reading

This started a few years ago when Hedges felt "disrespected" and thought his defense alone warranted him being the starter...  Confidence in his very real defensive/"catching" abilities a good thing, and he's an unquestioned exemplar of hard work & game prep as a C.  But he's shown a tendency to justify not living up to blatantly obvious standards.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 14, 2020, 11:08 am

... but even with my Hedges rant, I'm with Mr. P:   Have to go with him as primary starter batting 9th.

Mejia was in danger of not making the ROSTER in 1st ST; bad on both sides of ball.  Has improved now, but that's not exactly the profile of who you want to replace one of the very best defensive C's in baseball.  Mejia can bat as DH, so not "losing" his (or someone else even better's) relatively better offense;  it's only the "relative" offensive difference between whoever is batting 9th in lineup when it's not Hedges.  On this Padres team, that's going to likely be a non-established guy who of course will profile better offensively than Hedges, but not so much so that it exceeds the defensive/game-calling value Hedges brings every pitch, every inning.  A lot of Pads opponents will have their C batting 9th.... if they're in the 9 hole, they may be better than Hedges OFFENSIVELY, but not by nearly enough to overcome the Pads' defensive advantage there (of course, the quality of the rest of their lineup might > Pads).

Batting 9th, Hedges would still catch 4-5 innings before he even got his 2nd PA!   Could PH him right there if deemed neccy.  More typically, he'll get 2 PA & subbed for 3rd AB if losing a close game.

Another thought:  I wonder if there is a sabermetric/statistical way to evaluate specific P's that would benefit "more" from Hedges catching them?  The obvious ones I think of are Lucchesi & Yates throwing in the dirt a lot.  But maybe Paddack's pinpoint control & come to think of it, Davies living on the corners?  But maybe a guy like Lamet whose command isn't elite but has overwhelming stuff is simply getting less "benefit" from the C?  Hard to evaluate, but I hope some Ivy league statisticians are trying for Pads 🙂

Quote from fenn68 on July 14, 2020, 11:45 am

Simply both Hedges and Mejia are going to catch just a question of when (mix) of games but not likely a long string to either in August.

Part may be the Padres’ starting pitcher ... part may be how the rest of the line-up is producing (or is projected to produce vs. the scheduled opponent SP)  ... part may be the opposing pitcher given Hedges’ stats vs. LHP ... part may be the bench mix if the idea is PH for Hedges late if needed and Mejia is DH.

The issue with Hedges batting 9th .... is the Padres seem to want baserunners when Tatis (who is leading off) comes to bat. Probably one with speed given Tatis hits extra base hits and he has speed. Having a productive bat 9th should add runs with Tatis - Pham-Machado hitting next while still maximizing ABs for those 3 and starting with an impact 1st inning. Profar 9th? Grisham 9th?

I doubt we ever understand the underlying logic the Padres use in starting one over the other in any specific game ...

Side ... NYY have done well with Sanchez behind the plate and was (and is) a bad defensive catcher with a big arm (see Mejia) ... yet somehow they are OK with his bat carrying him in the starting role even though they have a big offensive line-up. So, just would not discount his playing time just because of his defense.

Quote from Randy Manese on July 14, 2020, 12:39 pm

I think you hit the nail on the head.  I believe most AL teams do put some speed at the bottom of the lineup,  Problem with Hedges hitting higher in the order is that he's not exactly a dependable RBI man and more of a rally killer.  Good point on Sanchez, although he's a much more dominant hitter than Mejia probably ever will be.

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 14, 2020, 12:42 pm

Really Good point on #9 hitter table setting for Tatis, etc.... it makes more sense to have our 2B bat #9, our C #8.   Slightly "weakens" the lineup, I suppose, but from a Hedges batting 9th POV; it's only moving his 3rd AB in the game from 27th overall to 26th; can still PH him there when needed if down close late in games.   He & Mejia are NOT table setters.  Garcia & Profar profile way better for that role.  And no harm in their weaknesses (Profar - low BB/OBP , and especially Garcia - no power) being there in lineup.

Subtle but very real AL (DH) vs NL lineup composition... good thinking!