Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2020, 7:27 am

Quote from Ben Davey on July 10, 2020, 1:23 am

In regards to Hosmer playing everyday, given his inability to hit LHP I cant see Tingler just dropping him in the order.  Myers and France have both taken infield practice at 1B and can see either starting there for Hosmer against lefties.

With the DH and the three batter rule there is more flexibility for the offense.  Could see France starting, getting two AB, and then Hosmer PH against a RHP late in the game.

Unless you are Tatis/Machado and probably Pham, no reason not to play the matchups as often as possible.

Just don’t see the Padres platooning their second most expensive player and arguably a team leader ..... even if it makes statistical sense.

The other issue .... given roster construction ... is using a RHH option that may also be needed for other LHH. So the Myers option means Cordero and Grisham are in the OF and no indication either can hit LHP. France has to make the roster at the expense of someone else but if he did make the team would he a better option than Naylor at DH or shift players around to sit Grisham / Cordero out of CF?

In a month the roster is at 26 and in the heat of the playoff push ... roster construction (and player use) will become different.

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 10, 2020, 9:09 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2020, 7:27 am

Quote from Ben Davey on July 10, 2020, 1:23 am

In regards to Hosmer playing everyday, given his inability to hit LHP I cant see Tingler just dropping him in the order.  Myers and France have both taken infield practice at 1B and can see either starting there for Hosmer against lefties.

With the DH and the three batter rule there is more flexibility for the offense.  Could see France starting, getting two AB, and then Hosmer PH against a RHP late in the game.

Unless you are Tatis/Machado and probably Pham, no reason not to play the matchups as often as possible.

Just don’t see the Padres platooning their second most expensive player and arguably a team leader ..... even if it makes statistical sense.

The other issue .... given roster construction ... is using a RHH option that may also be needed for other LHH. So the Myers option means Cordero and Grisham are in the OF and no indication either can hit LHP. France has to make the roster at the expense of someone else but if he did make the team would he a better option than Naylor at DH or shift players around to sit Grisham / Cordero out of CF?

In a month the roster is at 26 and in the heat of the playoff push ... roster construction (and player use) will become different.

Agree with Ben that with only 60 games they SHOULD platoon Hosmer (& Myers in OF if neccy)... but agree with FENN that due to their contracts they won't.  It's an unexpected but pretty obvious situation where you have to go with the guys you paid to be part of your "core" that carries you.

They will (should!) employ the France vs the starting LHP only for a few games ("can't" use Myers @ 1B vs LHP without opening another hole unless Olivares is on roster), but I expect Tatis/Pham/Machado/Hosmer (vs RHP in this spot)/Myers (#4 vs LHP?) as a core top half of the lineup pretty much every day.  Grisham, Profar, Mejia, Naylor, Cordero, France too unproven (&/or undisciplined) to envision higher in lineup unless they get nuclear hot; so all in 6 - 8/9 spots (Hedges has #9 locked up 🙂

They COULD/should experiment with Greg Garcia's .370 OBP vs RHP (in line with his career .359 overall) at maybe #2 in lineup?  Hard to bump any of the top 3 to #4, but likely pays off with more runs/RBI.  But he's the only player on the roster with enough of a track record on O.D. to warrant being in the top 5 spots in lineup.  Otherwise with no power probably has to be 8th or even 9th (like a position player batting after P in NL).

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2020, 9:46 am

Injuries will shape some of the roster calls ... but as it is when they get down to 26 in September going to be difficult to get a RHH bench option without some debatable player to the taxi squad.

Assumng Grisham secures CF, Naylor secures DH, Profar secures 2B and Hedges / Mejia are the catching duo ... that leaves Mateo, Garcia, and Cordero “on the bubble”.

Keep in mind that Profar and Mateo are out of minor league options (and are INF / OF options). Naylor, of the LHH hits LHP the best. Garcia is the veteran support for the INF.

How do they fit in France or Olivares or Dozier or Torrens (allowing Mejia to 1B/DH)?

Because they have minor league options ... maybe Cordero and Naylor have the bigger risk of not making the final 26? Will Garcia’s limited defense versatility coupled with his inability to hit LHP and only one more control year make him vulnerable?

 

Quote from Randy Manese on July 10, 2020, 11:36 am

Hosmer was not so terrible in the AL against lefties, having alternate years of being about league average (when his BA hovered around .300) and bad years when it was around .260.   In the 2 years he's been with us, he has tanked against lefties, going 25-30 points below league average.  Don't see him reverting to earlier years so I like Dozier as a righty platoon - strong against lefties and very experienced.  Won't hurt us defensively at 1b.  In a short season, need to go with proven players vice France or Olivares.  Profar not so bad against lefties, so he could sneak in a few ABs.

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 10, 2020, 12:55 pm

Think Garcia's proven career OBP ability & his veteran experience/presence are too valuable to give up on pre-O.D. when there is SO much youth & inexperience among position players on this roster:   Mejia, Cordero, Naylor, Grisham, France all < 300 MLB AB's, Cronenworth & Mateo zero.  Roster going to have fresh blood/youth WITH Garcia in what is essentially a 60-game end of season playoff race...  don't want to go even less experience with likely surprises all season long.

He is very likely to not come back in 2021 though.

Quote from Ben Davey on July 10, 2020, 1:43 pm

Hosmer has traditionally struggled against LHP, it has just been more pronounced the last few years.  I dont think he will be benched in a true platoon, but if the Padres face 15 LH starters this year, I wouldnt be surprised if he had 7 or 8 days off.  Starting 52 games, then probably coming in late in the game for another 5 or 6 is still a "highest paid player" percentage, and also puts him in a better position to be successful.

We've talked about Tatis, Machado, Pham all destroying LHP, but I wonder, with starters not expected to go more than 5 or 6 innings, and the new 3 batter rule, will there be a greater need to have a R/L/R/L type of lineup?

I also agree that Garcia probably makes the club as a "veteran presence off the bench," but at the same time the only way for young players to prove themselves is by getting the opportunity. Why not throw France in there at 1B to give Hosmer a "rest."  Mejia (who hits lefties) at catcher, Myers in LF with Naylor as DH and the lineup is set.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2020, 2:02 pm

Pham is cleared to return ... so good

Wingenter has an “elbow issue” .... re-examined in 5 days. In a short season, another IL candidate (maybe 45 day for roster flexibility).

Although Wingenter was not expected to be a key part of 2020 .... just highlights the issues injuries may bring up with a controlled “60” player pool for a team that wants to contend with a significant portion allocated to “prospects” not ML ready.

Maybe some rationale for a few more seasoned veterans in that 60 pool and some “versatile” options. Lose a player for 30 days and that is a half a season and the backfill needs to be as productive as possible .... IF a team is focused on contending.

Padres have room and a couple of weeks to see what Summer Camp shakes out ... and make some last minute moves for insurance. Less than a week and Castillo and Wingenter are likely out of contention .... there will be more.

Quote from Ben Davey on July 10, 2020, 2:07 pm

If Margot is effectively replacement level at CF.  I'm confident that Grisham can hit at least as well as Margot, the question is defensively.  As long as he isnt Myers in CF we should be fine.

Pre-COVID, Preller saw a big issue in the middle innings

ERA by inning
5.  4.67 (16th)
6. 5.11 (21st)
7.  5.33 (23rd)
8.  4.83 (21st)
9.  2.43 (1st)

Starters were middle of the road, should be slightly better this year (with Lamet and Richards healthy instead of Margevicious), but our bullpen that was supposed to be a strength was anything but outside of Yates.  If Pagan can help turn that 21st ranking in the 8th inning to one of the top 5 or so, same with Pom in the 7th, that should bring the "average" ERA by inning closer to 3 or 3.5 for those innings.  Have to imagine that that 3 or 4 wins right there.  So provided he remains healthy I can completely see how the addition of Pagan can outweigh the loss of Margot

Quote from Ben Davey on July 10, 2020, 2:16 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2020, 2:02 pm

Pham is cleared to return ... so good

Wingenter has an “elbow issue” .... re-examined in 5 days. In a short season, another IL candidate (maybe 45 day for roster flexibility).

Although Wingenter was not expected to be a key part of 2020 .... just highlights the issues injuries may bring up with a controlled “60” player pool for a team that wants to contend with a significant portion allocated to “prospects” not ML ready.

Maybe some rationale for a few more seasoned veterans in that 60 pool and some “versatile” options. Lose a player for 30 days and that is a half a season and the backfill needs to be as productive as possible .... IF a team is focused on contending.

Padres have room and a couple of weeks to see what Summer Camp shakes out ... and make some last minute moves for insurance. Less than a week and Castillo and Wingenter are likely out of contention .... there will be more.

I think that is exactly why the Padres left room in their player pool.  And also why it is extremely important that the "main players" stay healthy.  The Padres can afford to lose a Wingenter or Castillo.  Perdomo verse WIng, Wing might win out but its a marginal difference (Perdomo had the lower ERA).  I would even go as far as saying that Preller has already prepared for this.  We essentially have three closers and 12 starters on the team.  Losing Yates would suck, but at least this year Pagan can step in instead of Stammen