Quote from ultratvfan on August 15, 2025, 11:59 am

I agree.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 15, 2025, 12:10 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on August 15, 2025, 11:43 am

I really don't mind Arraez batting in the 2nd spot. He hits the ball, goes to all fields, and doesn't strike out much. No different than when Loretta used to hit 2nd.

 

All the things that make a good #2 hitter he has "except" he'd rather foul off balls than take them.

He could have 20+ more walks if he just didn't swing at half of the balls he fouls off...esp with Tatis on 1b...take the walk!

Foul off all the strike 3's you want.....but quit fouling off ball 4.

with his eye at the plate his OBP should be .30-.40 pts higher.

He has a Soto-like eye at the plate but just can't "not swing" when he gets 2 strikes even if they're obvious balls in most cases.

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 15, 2025, 12:40 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 15, 2025, 11:00 am

Arraez should drop way down in the lineup against lefties. Ideally he would come off the bench. The problem is that the alternatives at 1B aren't much better. O'Hearn has solid looking numbers, but he was so heavily shielded in Baltimore that going 2-2 with a HR, 2B, and a BB in 3 PAs since joining the team took his OPS against lefties from .667 to .789. He's at .606 for his career. Sheets is at .656 on the year and .534 for his career. Arraez is at .643 on the year and .675 for his career. It's not a very inspiring group and they seem pleased enough with Arraez's defensive progress to keep him in there over either of the others.

I would like to see Arraez drop towards the bottom of the lineup with Bogaerts or Laureano sliding into the 2 hole against lefties. I don't think L/R balance is as important against a lefty starter.

Arraez is still very productive against right handed pitching. I disagree with the notion that he's not a good offensive player. He just really should be a platoon player in my opinion. I also disagree with the idea that he doesn't fit Petco. He's hitting .315/.343/.425 at Petco this year. That's a very good line and much better than what he has managed on the road. Only Tatis and Machado have been better of the guys who have been here all year. If you want to get even more granular he's at .322/.352/.456 against right handed pitching at Petco. Tatis is the only one who has been better.

Agree he is a good offensive player ... however "expectations" by some are more along the line of his productivity in his three years before moving to SD ... and that was lofty earning him MVP player voting. A bit unfair to Arraez.

As long as the Padres are winning ... OK with him at #2. If it were not for his potential contract ... would bring him back (maybe not hitting #2 in 2026). Since I tend to discount the defensive stats and go with my eyes ... don't see an issue with Arraez defensively ... he makes the catches, scoops ball out of the dirt, does not boot ground balls ... maybe not big range but not a big issue for a 1B.

What I can figure out is the decline in output since SD acquired him:

21-23 (1699 PA): 324/372/426 ... 123 wRC+

24-25 (1181 PA): 304/327/393 ... 107 wRC+

Large sample sizes ... significant drop in output across the board (but still above average offense). Why??? At some level the why is not important and does he help the team ... for the cost. Thinking not going forward.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 15, 2025, 4:05 pm

Quote from fenn68 on August 15, 2025, 12:40 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 15, 2025, 11:00 am

Arraez should drop way down in the lineup against lefties. Ideally he would come off the bench. The problem is that the alternatives at 1B aren't much better. O'Hearn has solid looking numbers, but he was so heavily shielded in Baltimore that going 2-2 with a HR, 2B, and a BB in 3 PAs since joining the team took his OPS against lefties from .667 to .789. He's at .606 for his career. Sheets is at .656 on the year and .534 for his career. Arraez is at .643 on the year and .675 for his career. It's not a very inspiring group and they seem pleased enough with Arraez's defensive progress to keep him in there over either of the others.

I would like to see Arraez drop towards the bottom of the lineup with Bogaerts or Laureano sliding into the 2 hole against lefties. I don't think L/R balance is as important against a lefty starter.

Arraez is still very productive against right handed pitching. I disagree with the notion that he's not a good offensive player. He just really should be a platoon player in my opinion. I also disagree with the idea that he doesn't fit Petco. He's hitting .315/.343/.425 at Petco this year. That's a very good line and much better than what he has managed on the road. Only Tatis and Machado have been better of the guys who have been here all year. If you want to get even more granular he's at .322/.352/.456 against right handed pitching at Petco. Tatis is the only one who has been better.

Agree he is a good offensive player ... however "expectations" by some are more along the line of his productivity in his three years before moving to SD ... and that was lofty earning him MVP player voting. A bit unfair to Arraez.

As long as the Padres are winning ... OK with him at #2. If it were not for his potential contract ... would bring him back (maybe not hitting #2 in 2026). Since I tend to discount the defensive stats and go with my eyes ... don't see an issue with Arraez defensively ... he makes the catches, scoops ball out of the dirt, does not boot ground balls ... maybe not big range but not a big issue for a 1B.

What I can figure out is the decline in output since SD acquired him:

21-23 (1699 PA): 324/372/426 ... 123 wRC+

24-25 (1181 PA): 304/327/393 ... 107 wRC+

Large sample sizes ... significant drop in output across the board (but still above average offense). Why??? At some level the why is not important and does he help the team ... for the cost. Thinking not going forward.

That 2023 season looks like an outlier. He had career numbers across the board. He hit .326 off of lefties. He hasn't hit better than .274 off of them in any other season. His numbers with us last year weren't too far off from his earlier numbers. I also think the thumb injury was a factor. He hurt it in late June and his numbers were way down in July.

This year is a little harder to figure, but I think some of it is just bad luck. His BAbip is .286 which is by far the lowest of his career. His chase rate has also taken a big jump going back to 2023. Early in his career he was consistently around 24%. In 2023 it spiked to 32% and he has been around that number ever since. Maybe he was going so good in 2023 that he started to expand his zone a little more. It worked well then. He may need to reign it in again now.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 16, 2025, 10:42 am

I'm trying to figure out what's going on with Tatis's struggles against lefties these past 2 seasons. From 2019-2023 he hit .307/.402/.573 in 435 PAs against them.

In 2024 and 2025 he has combined to hit .219/.353/.315 in 266 PAs. He used to absolutely demolish lefties and now it seems like he has very little thump in his bat against them. I don't see how you can justify keeping him and Arraez at the top of the lineup against lefties right now.

Quote from fenn68 on August 16, 2025, 5:12 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 16, 2025, 10:42 am

I'm trying to figure out what's going on with Tatis's struggles against lefties these past 2 seasons. From 2019-2023 he hit .307/.402/.573 in 435 PAs against them.

In 2024 and 2025 he has combined to hit .219/.353/.315 in 266 PAs. He used to absolutely demolish lefties and now it seems like he has very little thump in his bat against them. I don't see how you can justify keeping him and Arraez at the top of the lineup against lefties right now.

Beyond Tatis not being effective vs LHP ... he seems to be going from extreme hot (April) to long cold spells. Tough to navigate when he is near the top of the order ... yet he is scoring runs with a high OBP due to walks.

One of the arguments for Tatis in the lead-off slot was he will be a terror in the base paths (past 30 days only 3 SB / 2 caught stealing) the other was his power will get them that early HR / extra base hit to set-up the start of the game (that is not happening ... in the past 30 days on 1 HR / 7 RBI).

So, we have Tatis walking more (and scoring runs) but is that what a talent such as Tatis should be delivering? Maybe at the lead-off, he is just being pitched differently and/or is more concerned wit OBP. Just have trouble accepting a projection for the past 30 days of Tatis being a 6 HR / 42 RBI player with 18 SB.

Maybe the "theory" of Tatis being a dynamic lead-off hitter does not translate into reality?

At this point in a successful season not really eager to make wholesale line-up moves BUT might consider flipping Tatis and Arraez (both underperforming expectations in my mind). Would not expect much change to Arraez ... but he does see a lot of pitches and is a pest to the pitcher and still gets on at over a .300 clip. Tatis then may have to get pitched to more (with Machado behind him) unleashing his offense ... at last a hope. We know Tatis can be a 40/40 player ... should they be positioning him to best achieve that totals ... and that does not see to be batting lead-off.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 17, 2025, 6:35 pm

Six weeks ago we were nine games behind the dodgers. Today we’re two games behind the dodgers. Let’s not lose focus on the goal, which is to make the World Series not win the division. Even then, we have an easy schedule on September so don’t give up.

still looking for the first wild card spot at minimum

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 17, 2025, 10:54 pm

We're really effectively 3 games back since the Dodgers have the tiebreaker. We may have to pay them back for the sweep when they come to Petco to give ourselves a shot at the division. Looking at the rest of the remaining schedule we have 12 games left against teams that are still in contention with 3 against each of the Mariners, Reds, Mets and Brewers. We also have 10 games left against the 2 worst teams in baseball with 7 against the Rockies and 3 against the White Sox. We round it out with 4 against the Giants and 3 against each of the Twins, Orioles and Diamondbacks.

Our remaining schedule looks pretty soft. The Dodgers might have an even easier schedule left though. There's actually a lot of overlap. They also have 7 with the Rockies and 3 against the Reds, Mariners and Orioles. They see the Giants and Diamondbacks for 3 more games than we do. The teams they play that we don't are the Phillies and Pirates. So I guess the question is would you rather have 3 games with each of the Brewers, Mets, White Sox, and Twins or 3 with each of the Phillies, Pirates, Giants and Diamondbacks?

They just need to win as many games as possible regardless. Catching the Cubs would be a decent consolation prize if they can't catch the Dodgers.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 18, 2025, 10:18 am

Going from 9 behind to 1 ahead and then getting swept took the wind out of everyone's sails.

We need to just keep sight on the big picture.

Sure I'd love to win the Division and knock them down a peg....but winning in the playoffs is more important.

Let's aim for the #1 WC spot and see what happens.

Not giving up on the division....but up until 2 weeks ago we weren't even really thinking about it anyway so......