Quote from sportwarrior on January 29, 2026, 12:20 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2026, 8:59 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 29, 2026, 7:44 am

Quote from sportwarrior on January 29, 2026, 7:38 am

Quite predictably, our system was not ranked favorably by Keith Law in his system rankings for The Athletic. In fact, we were ranked dead last. I expect us to improve that ranking yet again. However, one has to wonder whether that job has been made tougher where Preller's wheeling and dealing likely makes SD a bit harder of a sell to international prospects who are committing to a system and city that might just end up trading them in short order anyway.

On the other hand, a weak system means a possible fast move up the ranks with little ahead blocking the prospect.

 

 

I doubt a 16 year old (or his advisor) care that much about the depth of a system ... more who wants to sign them and for how much. For the more pursued player ... maybe the quality of the development system for the teams.

The objective is to get to the ML ... with anyone ... perceive quality of the teams' development organizations that gets them to the ML ... even if traded fits the bigger goal.

If anything the Padres seem to have a good development staff ... so that should help.

I don't think I was clear on my point. It's not about the depth. It's about the commitment. I also was operating under what I believe is a shared understanding that often times, given the constraints on international spending, players often consider multiple offers of relatively equal value (or sometimes offers that are less) and use other factors as the determining elements in making a final decision. I think that's pretty clear given how heavily teams recruit kids at very young ages in Latin America.

My premise is that there is significant importance of "selling" a team's culture, commitment to development, etc, in recruiting these kids. We are, at this point, well known around the baseball world as a prospect clearing house. My point was that, all other things being equal, this could make a difference (however small) in a young player's eyes (and, importantly, in the eyes of any advisors he might have).

Quote from Randy Manese on January 29, 2026, 1:05 pm

It's entirely possible.  It was reported that we lost several higher ranked international prospects than we signed to other teams this year and it may not have been entirely based on money.  Overall, however, think the Padres do a great job of identifying young talent and many lower ranked prospects turn out better than those given more money.

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2026, 7:04 am

The White Sox have agreed to a deal with outfielder Austin Hays, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports.  Hays is represented by the MAS+ Agency.

One report has it as a 1 year / $6MM deal.

My guess ... given his age ... he wanted to land on a team that could give him regular playing time to set up his next FA. The dollars are about what was projected.

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2026, 8:42 am

In what should be an interesting backstory ... the Padres signed to a minor league contract pitcher Andrew Thurman targeted for AA.

He will be 34 ... last pitched in the minors in 2017 ... apparently did not pitch anywhere until last season when he was in independent ball (and did not pitch all that well).

I see a made for TV movie plot.

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2026, 11:45 am

Preller has in the past said they consider current year along with the five year plan in their decisions. Wonder how much that is constraining his options beyond the 2026 payroll limit?

We clearly don't know 2026 but combine that with the CBA (unknown new rules), the potential sale of the team and the projected payroll of the returning roster in 2027, and Preller may be limited on offering multi-year deals or back loaded deals.

Not at this point planning with Darvish off the books ... assuming King accepts his $28MM player option ... built in contract increases plus guesses on arbitration increases and that represents about a $46MM increase in 2027. Offset that with FA/declined club or player options on Pivetta, Laureano, Hart, Adams, Morejon plus non-repeating 2026 buyout costs total about $45MM decrease ... so net the payroll stays about at the 2026 level but with the loss of a lot of key assets.

Makes me think that (if as most assume) the current payroll level is close to max ... Preller has to be focusing on a 1 year deals (low end) and in his trades seek return of multi-year control at league minimum salary.

Also he has to be considering (pushing?) trades players with larger salaries to create some wiggle room now and going forward. Ignoring the non-trade clause players (where Padres would have to eat salary) ... might just put Adam, Sheets, Laureano, Matsui, Peralta, even Morejon into the trade mix beyond the perpetual debate on Cronenworth.

Tough to balance 2026 potentially as a last clear run for the playoffs vs a potential for a real drop in 2027 given all the departures. That "debate" probably puts Pivetta (and is $20.4MM then FA) into the crosshairs of a trade IF Preller thinks the return plus redeployment of his salary to FA keeps 2026 OK and strengthens the options of a competitive 2027 and beyond.

Tough for Preller depending on the options out there.

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2026, 4:55 pm

The Giants and infielder Luis Arraez are in agreement on a one-year contract, according to Jorge Castillo of ESPN. Arraez will earn $12MM and is expected to play second base, according to Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extrabase. The deal is pending a physical. Arraez is a client of MVP Sports Group.

Ends the speculation of a Padre return.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 31, 2026, 6:41 pm

The Arraez we saw last year is not worth a 12 million dollar contract.  Sticking him at 2b weakens the SF defense.  Great guy but not a fit at that price.

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2026, 5:05 am

Quote from Randy Manese on January 31, 2026, 6:41 pm

The Arraez we saw last year is not worth a 12 million dollar contract.  Sticking him at 2b weakens the SF defense.  Great guy but not a fit at that price.

$12MM for Arraez as a 2B with poor defense and no power ... looks like an overpay but maybe that is close to the market in 2026 (even if only one team pays).

If so, that makes Cronenworth's $12.5MM salary "reasonable" for better power and defense at 2B plus he had a better OBP / wRC+. Actually he was the 7th best qualified 2B in 2025.

Teams looking for a 2B might take a new look at Cronenworth given his production and "reasonable" salary (if lacking more compelling alternatives). The drag is he still has 5 years on the deal.

That 5 year commitment would probably lower any quality of a return in a trade but if CASH is a future issue for the Padres the return may not be that critical. For now, Song can move into 2B and the Padres gamble on him but have $12.5MM more in 2026 to deploy on another more critical need.

Maybe?

 

 

Quote from Randy Manese on February 1, 2026, 10:29 am

Croney is one of several position players who missed 20 or more games he probably would been in had he not been injured.  I'm looking at him to repeat what he did in 2024 but  keep some of the gains in other areas he had in 2025.  I predict a very solid year for Croney and he will absolutely be more valuable to the Padres than Arraez is to the Giants.