Quote from TucsonClip on February 13, 2025, 7:25 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2025, 6:28 am

However, we still have the unknown of Preller's budget limit / need to get under the CBT. Suarez / Peralta being traded does not get them there.

So, speculation on a Cease trade has to remain ... maybe think of it as a "trade" (money wise) of Cease for Pivetta and the players the Padres get in return of Cease ... and that combo actually makes the Padres "team" better if the trade return is "compelling".

If this is viewed as a trade, CBT is neutral BUT cash in 2025 is about $9MM lower ... again the unknown of the driver being Cash or CBT (maybe both). Pivetta is not as good as Cease but if the trade yields a good SP (better than Vasquez, Waldron) and a big bat for DH/1B ... both long cheap control ... the "team" might be better in 2025 and beyond since Cease under any logic with walk as a FA.

 

Quotes from Lin's article:

Pivetta, the 31st-ranked free agent on The Athletic’s Big Board, was perhaps the best starter left on the open market. He will receive a $3 million signing bonus and only a $1 million salary in 2025 from a Padres team that is facing cash-flow issues.

While that does not preclude the possibility of another team overwhelming the Padres with a trade offer for Cease, a deal involving closer Robert Suarez remains at least a decent possibility. Suarez is owed $10 million in 2025 and can opt out after the season. The Padres, still seeking to trim some payroll, believe they could field an effective bullpen even if they end up moving him.

The Padres, with the addition of Pivetta, will see their estimated luxury-tax number rise to almost $259 million, or roughly $18 million above the first tax threshold. Team decision-makers, however, have been more concerned with the pure payroll number. That fact is reflected in the Padres’ recent deals with King — who is owed just $4 million before a likely opt-out — and outfielders Connor Joe and Jason Heyward. The latter two are each guaranteed only $1 million.

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2025, 7:44 am

Maybe more concerned with CASH but not necessarily exclusively a CASH issue. Plus no idea what the CASH target is ... maybe meeting CASH also meets CBT.

Padres had a 2024 CASH payroll of $169MM ... they are currently projected at $209MM ... a $38MM increase (22.5% one of the highest % in MLB). Clearly that is an issue that impacted the low cost (2025) signings of King, Heyward, Joe, and Pivetta.

Padres are keeping us (justifiably) in the dark with early comments of a "slight" cash payroll increase (whatever that translates to) to rumors suggesting $200MM ... just no firm idea other than it will not go up.

This is Preller ... expect he keeps listening on offers (no panic moves) and will trade off the current roster if the return (coupled with to cash savings) makes the team better in 2025 and beyond.

Actually if CASH is the driver ... a $38-39MM Cash increase could be more limiting than being "only" over the CBT by $18-19MM. Fix one ... fix the other?

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2025, 8:29 am

Preller keeps moving:

The Padres announced Thursday that they’ve signed lefty Kyle Hart to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2026 season. He’ll be guaranteed $1.5MM, per FanSided’s Robert Murray, coming in the form of a $1MM salary and a $500K buyout on a $5MM club option for the 2026 season

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32 year old ... starter ... LHP ... not great in the minors but made some changes and had a very good season in Korea in 2024. If lucky a #5 SP.

In competition with Waldron and Vasquez (note all have minor league options). Does make a 13 man ML rotation crowded with choices ... especially if a starter shifts to the pen. The fact that they gave Hart a ML contract just gives him some traction to be in the mix for 2025.

Maybe helps backfill if trades out of the current pitching.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on February 13, 2025, 8:45 am

Just read on MLBTR that SD does not plan on trading Cease or King, despite the signing of Pivetta or Hart. It says that Suarez could still be moved; and I would on my own, add Peralta as a potential move as well.

So it looks that we will start the season with a rotation of Cease, King, Darvish, Pivetta, and Hart. With Waldron, Vasquez, and others waiting in AAA in case.

While not as dominant on paper as the Duds to the north, this team should be enough to finish 2nd in the division and well within the Wild Card playoff spots.

Should be another fun season for the fans of the Brown and Gold!!

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2025, 9:04 am

Did listen to an analyst giving some positive comments on Pivetta in SD. He has the stuff ... good control ... stays healthy / eats innings ... and at PETCO (vs Fenway) should benefit him. Apparently a high FB type with a lot of FB/HR ... PETCO could do a lot neutralize that issue. He has been a low 4 ERA type (about average) ... maybe dropping that into the mid-3 ERA range sets-up a strong #3/4.

In this era ... 2 year at a $13.8 AAV before he can opt out is a bargain price even for a mid rotation arm.

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2025, 9:08 am

AI report:

Kyle Hart is a left-handed pitcher with a feel for pitching and command. He has a variety of pitches, including a fastball, slider, curveball, cutter, and changeup. 

Fastball 87–90 mph with natural cut, Can reach 92 mph, and Below-average velocity. 

Slider 

• Low 80s with a longer, horizontal break
• Has improved as he has moved up the system

Cutter 85–86 mph with solid horizontal movement and Induces weak contact. 

Changeup 

• 81–82 mph with a consistent arm slot and release point
• Could use more separation from his fastball

Curveball 

• 76–79 mph with a long, vertical break
• More to steal a strike when sequenced properly

Other skills 

• Works around the plate, pitches to contact
• Confident and composed on the mound
• Has a solid slider and a respectable changeup

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2025, 9:13 am

more on Hart:

In South Korea, Hart found his way. He set the KBO record for strikeouts in a single season with 182 en route to winning the league’s Dong-won Award for the best starting pitcher. He won an award for best defensive pitcher, too.

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Maybe lightning in a bottle for a #5 SP ... LHP with command and low velocity may give a different perspective for opponents after Cease, King, Darvish, and Pivetta ... helping him.

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2025, 9:35 am

Padres roster is now full at 40 ... but they can put Musgrove on the 60 day IL if they make another add.

Also, likely DFA option is Sullivan who is out of minor league options and given all the pitchers now on the roster ... Rule 5 Nunez is likely returned baring a major string of injures (or a massive ST showing).

Rosario is also out of minor league options ... but likely to make the 26 man.

Not great news for any of the non-roster options in camp ... will really need a convincing showing to get a roster slot.

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 13, 2025, 10:48 am

AJ Preller has always done a masterful job at identifying talent and this is just another signing that has very little downside but has a huge upside...another TALL pitcher -6'5" lefty that changed his whole idea about pitching. Will he make a difference for this team? Who knows but if he can give you a spot start, long relief and shows decent then he becomes a valuable piece and could very well be a trade chip at the deadline because by then EVERYBODY is looking for pitching and being a lefty only helps not only him but the Padres as well. To many people get caught up in the present day game of checkers and AJ is playing 6th dimension chess.

This roster as currently constructed is going to do some damage provided they can avoid the dreaded three I's...injury, illness and ineligibility. Trading ANY of the starting pitchers is a non starter...Cease, 1.07 whip, 65 BB/224 SO, could be a trade deadline move depending on where the Padres are sitting and would be harder to resign given his agent is Scott Boras, King, 1.19 whip, 63 BB/201 SO is the one that I think will benefit from all of the money coming off the books next year and I for one would love to see him extended, Darvish will continue to be steady- 1.07 whip, 22 BB/ 78 SO,  Pivetta - 6'5" is a great deal right now with a crazy 36BB/172SO line from last season and a 1.12 whip. Then you have a combination of Vasquez, Waldron, Kolek, Honing, Britto that could step up and fill the #5 or #6 spot in the rotation.

Arraez changed the whole team when he got here and having a true leadoff hitter is always a plus, added Conner Joe, who can play OF and 1B but can also play 2B much better than anybody even realizes, Jason Heyward can still play a solid OF and brings a left handed bat, Elias Diaz is more than serviceable behind the plate with Campusano

Lost Profar, who had an outlier season, Higoshioga that turned into a pleasant surprise as a throw in, Solano and Peralta that fit their roles perfectly, Tanner Scott who was a rental, Martin Perez was a rental. Losing Ha-Soeng Kim is the one in my opinion that hurts the most...Gold Glove Infielder, always played hard and was a HUGE fan Favorite.

All in all, this team is not the gloom and doom that some people believe so sit back and enjoy because we all know that with every new season comes the eternal hope that maybe this is the year and besides...Baseball at Petco is always a good time

Go Padres!!!