Quote from Brian Connelly on December 2, 2020, 11:25 pm

Both sides want to make max money after 2020 and since the end of 2020 ran well ... they will go for it.

Re-post from: Offeason thread... Obviously, but they get there very different ways.  Players play as many games as possible.  Owners need as many fans in stand as possible.  Stadiums are NOT going to be full/sold out 4 months from now (Opening Day, ironically April 1st)....

I believe major pro sports do serve a huge economic & psychologically important role to the entire country.  So think MLB players, coaches, trainers, clubhouse, umpires, etc, etc WILL be a high priority and will all get vaccinated before season starts.  But don't see any realistic way entire population does that fast.

Players will push very hard for all 162.  You can't compact a long season the way they did a 60-game one, but theoretically could play later into this year, since later = safer in 2021 (no covid @ flu season issue); but that might lead to warm weather neutral playoff sites again--not ideal.  For the owners, it's a "simple" math problem that we don't have the figures for... at some point they are literally better off paying players a little >100% salary on  a per game basis ("cash flowing" the small 'overage' over the season) when there are "enough" fans & rising in the stands, than earlier in the season when stadiums are.... 1/8, 1/4 full?

Hope you're right and it's just full go, but what the players & owners want (given the situation) is NOT the same thing.

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2020, 10:44 am

Just expect both sides to really get serious about the 2021 regular season issues on ... maybe ... March 1. Too many unknowns and any earlier discussions frankly would be futile.

Owners can't really do much on their own given the term of the current CBA ... maybe delay / alter the start and structure of ST ... but hit a wall on tinkering with the regular season without Union agreement (and we know how well that went March-July this year).

Owners themselves are very reluctant to push the end of the season back and then the playoffs which would go to November ... big weather issues and into the heart of what should be a fully back NFL/college football season and the start of the NBA/NHL.

Even discord among the owners I would expect on a season delay IF you are an owner in Texas, Florida, and other states that already are allowing fans (limited) in the face of major infections ... sure they expect to have near normal on April 1 (soon after) until proved otherwise. Owners for themselves and probably don't care if the CA teams can't have full stands.

So, more than just an Owner / Union discord in play.

Think a big part of the 2020 settlement was the potential of a full season shutdown. Don't see that as a factor in getting a settlement on any changes to 2021 which would be more delay debate ... and delay only benefits the owners  ... so what is in it for the union if they have to take a pay cut.

A 162 game (spread over a minimum 182 days, I think) bundled with a ton of specific rules around off-days, double-headers, et. al is in the CBA and that makes a "simple" change a "complicated" change out of the gate. Then toss in the player contract is for a "season" not specific to 162 games ... so even if both sides agree to lop off 30 games for a one month delay ... bet the Union says fine but pay the contract at the season pay. Neither side can do anything unilaterally without running counter to the CBA ... contract law .. labor relations laws. Both sides may really not want to go into negotiations for 2021 knowing they will be right back after the season for the new CBA.

Quote from 3fingersplit on December 3, 2020, 1:08 pm

Good read on the cubbies link....right now I'm contemplating renewing season ticket package with the padres but they have no answer yet on what happens to your tickets if the season gets whittled down again from a full schedule or the how it affects various ticket packages....full season (81 games) to half season to quarter season.

It has got to be frustrating to try to sell fans a season package of any length with so many questions and no answers

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 6, 2020, 2:33 pm

Is it March yet?

3 Months to go before anything real happens.

Ugh!

Quote from fenn68 on December 7, 2020, 10:12 am

Looks as though the owners and MLBPA are beginning negotiations on the rules for a 2021 season. Not much motivation the just adopt the 2020 agreement ... both side feel they got short changed ... and with the CBA up at the end of the season neither side wants to potentially weak a negotiation position prematurely.

MLB is telling the GMs in the NL to assume no 2021 DH ... might be more of a negotiation stance than a final declaration.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2020, 8:56 am

OK, I was going to BLAST the MLB players' association here... but I'll bite my tongue a little.

But the owners calling to delay makes WAY more sense than the players calling for a "full normal 162 game season" because they "proved they could safely play last year".   REALLY!?  Yeah, Miami, St Louis etc did a phenomenal job...

The virus is 10x more prevalent nationwide than it was when MLB season started last year, AND vaccines have now just become available.  It's ludicrous from a PLAYER (and their extended families) safety perspective to even consider playing without all players, coaches, trainers, etc being vaccinated.  Owners may care more about $ than players (unfair IMO), but at least MLBPA should care more about the players & their families than $!!

The projections are that 100 Million people in U.S. will have been vaccinated by the end of February.  Pretty ambitious, but if true that's about 30% of the entire U.S. population, much higher % of adult population, and likely well > 50% of adults planning/willing to get vaccinated at all, since many won't (table that re: players for now).   To me, it seems like a reasonable goal to get every MLB AND Minors player, coach, staff in contact with players, locker rooms, vaccinated by the end of February.

If that TOTAL were 500 people per team (not that high), that would be 15,000 vaccinations.  All kinds of logistical issues.  MLB would need some kind of  "special dispensation" as being in National economic (& psychological!) interest, and if talking about <15K doses of 100 MM available... it seems reasonable to ask for.  Seems like it'd be easiest for teams to actually do the vaccinations at or via the 2 ST sites vs. 15K individual arrangements.  But takes a month (after 2nd dose?) to reach max/full immunity.

???    Can't sit around/quarantine for 2 months before any activity, but maybe 2 weeks?  i.e. All report 2 weeks before "P & C report".... Then by the time ST games start you're at close to 1 month since 1st vacc... keep following strict covid protocols, testing (that's going to go on all year likely), minimize # of players in one place, etc until at whatever health profession says is "max safety" date.

Could have something closer to a Normal Spring Training & Season for MLB & Minors by starting ST with shots in arms day 1.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2020, 9:23 am

Owners:   "Can't play 162"    Players:  "Not playing for less than full season's pay"

Obvious & blatantly self interested & hypocritical (especially MLBPA) starting points.

We know players won't go < 100% pay per game played, and will again insist on getting full 1.000 season MLB service time regardless of how many games are played.  We know you can't compress a 162 game season the way a 60 game season was done (especially with normal league-wide play, not regional only).  We know owners obviously lose more $ each game played with no fans vs. at least some.

I still think there is a high likelihood of an outcome where < 162 games are played, but player pay is actually > 100% per game played.   Think something like:  80% of games played (130), 90% of player pay received or 90% of games played for 95% of pay.   With vaccine available, frontline workers all vaccinated by no later than January, and wide distribution by early Summer, think states will "open up" big venues like baseball, amusement parks, etc fairly quickly for Summer when there will be a huge pent up demand for "things to do" after a year of limitation.

Owners on Day 1 of current MLB schedule are same hemorraging $ situation as last game of 2020.  But completely different financial world on last game of 2021; "back in black".   Owners can make a pretty convincing argument to MLBPA & more importantly agents that they can actually spend more $ on players if they just eliminate ex. 30 "no fan" games.  Players "clawing back" 50% of the total salary they lose in a shortened season might be a win-win face saver for both owners (only eliminating "no fans" games) & MLBPA (walk tightrope of pushing for players $ & safety simultaneously).

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2020, 9:51 am

ST may be a tough sell on both sides ... players don't get paid / take risk all without an agreement on the season and pay going forward. Might be a case were settling on the start (and structure) of the season has to be settled first then back into a ST start date, structure, and length? No idea the ripple effect on the minor league season.

Actually don't see much difference in the Union's initial position than all the restaurants, gyms, retail current positions on when (how) they reopen. I guess if you are not getting income ... then willing to take more risk ... not as worried about others. For a business, bankruptcy is at hand for a lot entities (not going down easily) ... for a ballplayer with a short period for career earnings (and already lost 2/3 of a season's pay) not going to give up more easily. More an issue with the marginal players on a major league deal where losing maybe a year worth of pay is 20% or more of the career earnings potential. Pretty big difference between $600K and $15 / hour at McDonalds.

Now pretty sure the season will get delayed since the negotiations will be contentious and that by itself will prevent an on time start. Plus neither side will "settle" until a clearer picture of April/May is in view ... that may not be until Feb/Mar. Roll out the lawyers again as players will push for the season to go longer, expanded rosters to accommodate maybe fewer off days and doubleheaders to get back to 162. Owners will object while while proposing 100-130 games ending as scheduled and expanded playoffs with virtually all the playoff revenue going to the owners.

Another game of follow the money ...

=====

Being pessimistic now .... with the CBA (and a potential work stoppage) for 2022 (that would be a disaster with a shortened 2020, shortened 2021)... wonder if there is a tipping point on the structure of the 2021 season that will push one side to just punting on the entire season and head directly to negotiating a new CBA with a lot more issues to be resolved? At some point making sure that a 2022 is "normal" might see the better long term strategy.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2020, 11:37 am

Fenn, your inherent pessimism as a too long Padre fan is killing me.  NEITHER owners nor players going to punt on at least a partial 2021 season with fans in seats.  If they tanked baseball in 2021 as hope/normalcy return to some degree, they might as well end the sport completely.    Wouldn't guarantee 2022 season happens in full even if they did.

Obviously the owners have a financial incentive to slow down / drag out things.  But to think the individual players are just going to be "OK" showing up for P & C report Feb 10th in some 100% showing of union solidarity is beyond naive.  What player that opted out last year is going to feel magically "safer" on Feb 10th showing up with 200 other guys from around the country/world?  The players & older managers, etc have real legit safety concerns certainly getting brought up behind closed doors, but the union has to show it's public stance.

The existence of a vaccine changes everything.  Frankly, it ironically gives the owners the moral high ground.

I know you didn't mean it this way, but comparing 500K+ salary guys (vast majority with 6 figure signing bonuses already paid) who lost 2/3 of that $ to minimum wage workers (like Minor league players!) losing their income is offensive...  Yes they are losing a disproportionate share of their total career earnings... but not their ability to work at McDonald's when they retire!

I don't feel too sorry for billionaire owners who rake in near 100% of all massive increases in TV $$, but it's really THEM who are the restaurant owners in your example:  No fans in stands a lot like a restaurant being forced to pay all of its employees despite the fact that it can't be open for business.