Quote from sportwarrior on March 15, 2024, 9:45 am

How likely is it that management is looking at Profar's "San Diego" numbers as a baseline for expected performance this year? I know this is incredibly simplistic, but if you leave out his lost time in CO, he's been an above average player for a majority of his at bats the last 4 years. Perhaps they're hedging on him having some kind of San Diego comfort factor. If that's the case, Pham really may only offer a minimal incremental upgrade in there eyes (as did the likes of Rosario or Duvall).

It really feels as though the team is still looking for that Preller Special - a late blockbuster trade that no one else sees coming - even if, at this point, it's unlikely.

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 9:52 am

I have a bit more head scratching on the pitching moves. Although I like the idea of the potential upside of some (like Kolek) ... the Padres want to win games coming out of the block in this season ... and early in the season the starters may not be yet up to going deep into games making the use of the pen "earlier" a feature.

To that end ... hard to justify optioning a currently better RP  to preserve the potential of another lesser RP ... that may cost key games.

Now we don't really know which Preller (and the coaches) see as the better current RP (or the gap between the better and the lesser) ... so would not rule out one of the ones I had not making the 26 man actually surviving.

Plus don't rule out an IL (right obliques is always popular) or one of the arms going in a minor deal ... so a lot of turns that could come.

Quote from sportwarrior on March 15, 2024, 9:53 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 9:44 am

I know Wade has had an impressive ST but in his 7 year run as a part-time ML player has a less than 70 wRC+ and that is just bad ... and more likely representative of what he will do in the regular season. Don't see him as a guy they want as a "regular DH/3B" until Manny returns to 3B. Do think they keep him on the 26 man since he can play all over the field if needed and is a LHH.

Similar with Sullivan a 30 year old with minimal ML time and a wRC+ sub-50. He I expect gets optioned.

Need a 3B and that probably comes down to Pauley and Rosario ... at least one if not both to start the season. Pauley looks to be the better hitter (and LHH) but Rosario looks to be a much superior defender (but RHH). Might just let the two "prospects" battle it out early in the season and then pivot when Manny is back at 3B full time. At that point the DH spot become the focal point for the best hitter.

I don't see both on the 26 man long term if the Padres don't want a prospect on the bench not playing. Don't see any other INF call-up that make sense but Wade can cover that bench role and at that point maybe an OF type is called up ... someone like Mercado or Mitchell (L).

Now a signing of Pham will re-sort the logic. More so a signing of Davis who although a poor fielder is a strong bat and could be a veteran filler for 3B to start and evolve to a DH when Manny resume 3B duties. I guess in an emergency Davis can also stand at 1B or LF but only in an emergency.

Since I would prefer Pauley and Rosario with a bit more time in the minors and don't think Wade is the answer .... if the price is right ... Davis on a one year contact is a fit. So don't rule that out just yet ... like Davis or not.

Am I alone in thinking that Rosario could be close to fully baked and ready to go? I'm not sure his bat needs more time in the minors, and we have a need where he'd best serve the team, filling in at 2b and 3b (and 1b, since all a major leaguer seems to need to play there is the right glove).

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 10:00 am

Quote from sportwarrior on March 15, 2024, 9:45 am

How likely is it that management is looking at Profar's "San Diego" numbers as a baseline for expected performance this year? I know this is incredibly simplistic, but if you leave out his lost time in CO, he's been an above average player for a majority of his at bats the last 4 years. Perhaps they're hedging on him having some kind of San Diego comfort factor. If that's the case, Pham really may only offer a minimal incremental upgrade in there eyes (as did the likes of Rosario or Duvall).

It really feels as though the team is still looking for that Preller Special - a late blockbuster trade that no one else sees coming - even if, at this point, it's unlikely.

Upgrading from Profar may not be issue ... it is getting an upgrade for the 9th bat in the line-up be it DH or LF with Profar DH.

Once Manny returns to 3B and Profar sits in LF ... that DH spot is pretty questionable as to even hitting as well as Profar. So, adding a bat at least at "average" ML quality makes sense if not betting on Pauley, Wade, Azocar, Rosario, Sullivan, or any of the non-roster MiL FA signings.

A greedy team would want to add two more bats that are better than Profar allowing him to the the super utility bench OF/INF/DH ... as it stand that would be better than the current bench options. However, expect that they are OK with Profar in LF for now given the roster.

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 10:08 am

Quote from sportwarrior on March 15, 2024, 9:53 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 9:44 am

I know Wade has had an impressive ST but in his 7 year run as a part-time ML player has a less than 70 wRC+ and that is just bad ... and more likely representative of what he will do in the regular season. Don't see him as a guy they want as a "regular DH/3B" until Manny returns to 3B. Do think they keep him on the 26 man since he can play all over the field if needed and is a LHH.

Similar with Sullivan a 30 year old with minimal ML time and a wRC+ sub-50. He I expect gets optioned.

Need a 3B and that probably comes down to Pauley and Rosario ... at least one if not both to start the season. Pauley looks to be the better hitter (and LHH) but Rosario looks to be a much superior defender (but RHH). Might just let the two "prospects" battle it out early in the season and then pivot when Manny is back at 3B full time. At that point the DH spot become the focal point for the best hitter.

I don't see both on the 26 man long term if the Padres don't want a prospect on the bench not playing. Don't see any other INF call-up that make sense but Wade can cover that bench role and at that point maybe an OF type is called up ... someone like Mercado or Mitchell (L).

Now a signing of Pham will re-sort the logic. More so a signing of Davis who although a poor fielder is a strong bat and could be a veteran filler for 3B to start and evolve to a DH when Manny resume 3B duties. I guess in an emergency Davis can also stand at 1B or LF but only in an emergency.

Since I would prefer Pauley and Rosario with a bit more time in the minors and don't think Wade is the answer .... if the price is right ... Davis on a one year contact is a fit. So don't rule that out just yet ... like Davis or not.

Am I alone in thinking that Rosario could be close to fully baked and ready to go? I'm not sure his bat needs more time in the minors, and we have a need where he'd best serve the team, filling in at 2b and 3b (and 1b, since all a major leaguer seems to need to play there is the right glove).

He should be close ... but he lost a lot of AAA time in 2023 due to injury ... so at least another half season helps. Plus once the INF sets with Machado - Kim - Bogaerts - Cronenworth they play every day and any bench player will just sit. Better Rosario is a call-up in case of injury (does not have the bat to DH).

If I had to bury someone on the bench for back-up INF it would be Wade ... maybe with a return of Batten. Used very little but both can play all over the diamond INF/OF and PR. Add that expect Tatis and Merrill to be every day players ... probably so to Profar ... so the only playing time for the bench is a rotation game through DH for the "regulars". Unless the add that other bat who may hold the DH role.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on March 15, 2024, 10:14 am

I am still thinking there is something along the way with a trade for a legit OFer. I am thinking that Kepler is still in play. Kepler is on the last season of his deal, I think MIN still needs pitching. Kepler is $10M this season, but his CBT hit is only $6.855M via his 6 year deal for $41.13M. I think both of those still keep SD safe from crossing the CBT level this season. He is an above average RFer, a switch to LF should be easy and play well.

I am thinking that Avila (out of options) and a MiL or two could get it done.

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 10:51 am

Quote from BoosterSD on March 15, 2024, 10:14 am

I am still thinking there is something along the way with a trade for a legit OFer. I am thinking that Kepler is still in play. Kepler is on the last season of his deal, I think MIN still needs pitching. Kepler is $10M this season, but his CBT hit is only $6.855M via his 6 year deal for $41.13M. I think both of those still keep SD safe from crossing the CBT level this season. He is an above average RFer, a switch to LF should be easy and play well.

I am thinking that Avila (out of options) and a MiL or two could get it done.

No idea what MINN is thinking on Kepler and potentially contending in a weak AL Central but Kepler would fit the Padres. However, I think his AAV would come over at the 2024 $10MM level (what the Padres pay) and the past paid by MINN does not carry.

$10MM added AAV would be cutting it very thin since have to consider the POTENTIAL $2MM due to Profar for incentives. Those combined would leave less than $2MM for any mid-season adds to cover IL stints and probably would eliminate any trade deadline adds.

I guess if the Padres boosted the players to MINN they could get MINN to cover some of the contract.

Might be a tough one to pull off.

Quote from BoosterSD on March 15, 2024, 11:24 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 10:51 am

Quote from BoosterSD on March 15, 2024, 10:14 am

I am still thinking there is something along the way with a trade for a legit OFer. I am thinking that Kepler is still in play. Kepler is on the last season of his deal, I think MIN still needs pitching. Kepler is $10M this season, but his CBT hit is only $6.855M via his 6 year deal for $41.13M. I think both of those still keep SD safe from crossing the CBT level this season. He is an above average RFer, a switch to LF should be easy and play well.

I am thinking that Avila (out of options) and a MiL or two could get it done.

No idea what MINN is thinking on Kepler and potentially contending in a weak AL Central but Kepler would fit the Padres. However, I think his AAV would come over at the 2024 $10MM level (what the Padres pay) and the past paid by MINN does not carry.

$10MM added AAV would be cutting it very thin since have to consider the POTENTIAL $2MM due to Profar for incentives. Those combined would leave less than $2MM for any mid-season adds to cover IL stints and probably would eliminate any trade deadline adds.

I guess if the Padres boosted the players to MINN they could get MINN to cover some of the contract.

Might be a tough one to pull off.

I just checked spotrac and they list his CBT # as $9M. So yes, cutting it too close and would either need to pass, or as you suggested adding a better prospect to buy down the contract.

Quote from sportwarrior on March 15, 2024, 1:06 pm

The bullpen has kind of turned into a strength with the possible emergence of guys like Estrada... is there a chance that maybe Preller looks to spin off Suarez late in the game and redeploy that money to LF with a guy like Kepler (or someone we're not even remotely expecting)?

I think there's a lot of reasons to consider this unlikely, but I'm just brainstorming wild ideas instead of working on a Friday afternoon...