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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#1 · August 21, 2023, 11:18 am
Although still some hope for 2023 (not a lot) but time to look at the coming offseason and where the roster goes.
First, as 2023 season ends players come FA and options have to be declined / accepted to set the initial winter roster before any FA signings / trades. So as a "starting point":
FA (9): Snell; Pomeranz; Garcia; Sanchez; Hader; Choi; Cooper; Gamel; R.Hill
Straight Player Options (2): Lugo, age 33 (1 year / $7.5 MM) ... likely declined; Carpenter, age 37 (1 year / $5.5MM) ... likely accepted
Club Option / Player Option Combo (2): Martinez, age 33 (Club side: $32MM/2 years ... likely declined) and (Player side: options at $8MM in each of next two years, so $16MM ... probably accepted but ?). Wacha, age 32 (Club side: $32MM/2 years) ... could go ether way) and (Player side: 3 years of options at $6.5MM, $6MM, and $6MM, so $18.5MM ... probably declined if it gets to that).
Winter roster could well be in the low 30s depending on the options and Knehr coming off the 60 day. Would add that the Rule 5 roster comes a few weeks later but other than Iriate no compelling adds (maybe Ornelas and a couple "fringe" types just because the roster is wide open. Plus a lot of low hanging fruit remain on the 40 man ... so no winter roster issue with talent.
Basically a lot of room for FA as adds ... on the other side not a lot of trade material.
Took a shot at a starting point for CBT winter payroll (2023 is around $281MM) and come in around $261MM with assumptions on Arb decisions and Carpenter back, Martinez back on the Player option, and Wacha back on the Club option.
That suggests the Padres will exceed the 2023 CBT payroll given the need to add some impact SP/RP at a minimum plus address catching past Campusano.
To win in 2024 ... a lot of roster upgrades will be needed once the FA departing are factored in.
#2 · August 21, 2023, 12:45 pm
If I had to choose between working a deal with either Soto and Kim, Kim is my choice.
Really can't imagine Soto( read:Boras) accepting anything less than $40 million a year, and as we've seen with Bogaerts, that is just way too much money to commit to guys who are not super, duper stars(.260 something and limited defensive ability aren't it)
Let Machado and FTJ be your superstars and fill out your roster with solid, hard nosed veteran types( you know, the kind the Duds get!)
#3 · August 21, 2023, 4:40 pm
Kim will be an interesting decision … not a FA until after 2024 … and maybe still some question as to whether 2023 is the real Kim going forward or will he settle back to closer to his past? So, using 2024 to ferret that out makes sense for the Padres … mainly to properly size the contract offer since think the Padres would like to keep him (and has character) as part of the organization.
If they keep Kim and Merrill comes up … Padres may have a very versatile INF/DH rotation keeping everyone fresh or they can just move Merrill to the OF without worry.
Kim is young enough to get a pretty long deal (both sides would buy into that) but $$$$$?
#4 · August 21, 2023, 5:02 pm
I guess in the normal pattern at the end of a long … and frustrating … season, beginning to hear some of the local print / TV / Radio media beginning to turn away from their previous high opinion of Soto. Seems that after watching him day in and day out … the lack of impact, the weak defense, the poor base running, etc. is changing the view from the early hype to a more critical evaluation.
The consensus is that the Padres will not re-sign him … maybe in part they don’t want to (despite that reports), Boras will go FA for the mega deal, and some feeling across the board that Soto wants to be elsewhere.
Put that all together and there now seems to be some willingness to trade Soto this winter from the media standpoint. Not sure Preller will go that route and would not be easy to move what is likely a 1 year / $30MM contract (only a few teams have the need and money) and get anything significant in return. So, maybe,Soto with all his faults is still better value to winning in 2024 than any return in a trade and no guarantee that the $30MM saved will get them better pieces. Still, expect Preller to have discussions with other teams … just because he does.
I would watch out for the NYY … losing some big contracts … missing the 2023 playoffs does not sit well in NY … weak OF … LHH in Yankee Stadium is well placed … plus the fact that it will be only a one year commitment gets them some strategic flexibility going forward.
If the Padres get someone to take Soto’s contract for prospects … and the Padres are comfortable sending Merrill out to LF … the $30MM targeted towards Soto could be redirected to the pursuit of Ohtani (bit a chicken and egg scenario as to timing of the deals).
#5 · August 22, 2023, 7:35 am
Quote from fenn68 on August 21, 2023, 5:02 pm
I would watch out for the NYY … losing some big contracts … missing the 2023 playoffs does not sit well in NY … weak OF … LHH in Yankee Stadium is well placed … plus the fact that it will be only a one year commitment gets them some strategic flexibility going forward.
If the Padres get someone to take Soto’s contract for prospects … and the Padres are comfortable sending Merrill out to LF … the $30MM targeted towards Soto could be redirected to the pursuit of Ohtani (bit a chicken and egg scenario as to timing of the deals).
I agree with idea of NYY as a spot for Soto. I would also look to see if you could lessen the return package from NYY and have them take Carpenter as well, he batted well there in 2022 prior to being injured. Between Soto and Carpenter that would take close to $35M off the books of SD that they could use towards SP, which will be their biggest need this offseason.
Then lets say they can land Ohtani, that gives SD an Ace SP, and a legit DH. And if Merrill is ready for ML duty in LF, you could set up a pretty legit line up at that time.
#6 · August 22, 2023, 9:55 am
Not likely the NYY would take Carpenter ... they were more than happy to let him go after 2022. He really had only one great month (think July) ... not much before and after... then the injury. Pretty sure the Padres will be stuck with Carpenter and his $5.5MM 2024.
Keep in mind that Soto is not going to draw a lot of trade interest at $30MM+/- and only for one year ... I would not expect a major haul of prospects (be lucky to get one good prospect) so pushing more dead money just hurts a potential deal. His market is at that price has to be a legit contender with money that needs a LHH LF/DH ... so not many buyers.
Padres prime objective ... in my view ... is to be sure to clear his $30MM and worry less about the return.
With Soto I have the Padres about $20MM under the 2023 CBT payroll with the plus / minus assumptions ... drop Soto's contract and would be $50MM under 2023 ... a pretty good base to work from to land Ohtani who would serve as a replacement bat for Soto and a replacement SP for Snell.
If that fell into place, Merrill becomes the added offense in LF (at league minimum) and Ohtani covers the hole at DH and the Padres offense should be better. Of course some big IFs. Basically Ohtani + Merrill > Soto + Snell for the same price ... and for longer control.
Addendum: in a dream scenario (unlikely to play out) ... let Wacha walk (save $16MM club option / $8MM player option) and hope Martinez walks (save $8MM ... player option) and take that $24MM and re-sign Snell. Tricky unless they know they can re-sign Snell and even if Wacha / Martinez exercise their player options ... with the need for SP in the league ... Padres could trade them (and their contracts). Padres remain at 2023 payroll level.
SP: Ohtani - Snell - Musgrove - Darvish and roll the dice on #5/6 SP but #1-4 would win they a lot of games.
With all that the Padres at 2023 payroll ... so if Siedler is willing maybe boost another $20MM to upgrade the bench / back end starters / relief pitching with a mix of maybe 3-5 veteran adds.
Not likely to all fall in place ... but in theory ... could result in a pretty compelling team in 2024 ... and many years more.
#7 · August 22, 2023, 10:17 am
Listening some discussion on the possible go forward strategy from the Padres ... can debate this is moving to he execution of the original plan or a change of course based on the current team and past decisions ... no matter, the theme is that the Padres are at the point with all the guaranteed long-term / high cost contracts they will now prioritize the development of prospects to filter into the 26 man roster (still long control but at low cost). Trading major prospects may be off the table.
- we know Siedler values continuity and he has a core group that will be around a long time and any prospects come with 6 year ML control ... so on the cusp of having a team that will be around for 5+ years.
- apparently Siedler has commented that although the Padres' payroll will not become "low" (can't with the guaranteed contracts) but might settle near the #10ish level in MLB (now #3). That right now does not mean deletions but having a lot of contracts locked in and supplement with league minimum can keep a stable payroll and others will pass them over the next few years.
That strategy does not preclude the previous comments about adding Ohtani / Snell long term and moving on from Soto ... those moves would basically lock in a team for 5+ years both in position players and SP make the prospects need for replacements less critical. With Merrill - Salas - Zavala - Snelling - Lesko on the come replacing soon Grisham, Soto, #5/#6 SP and the 2nd C should make for a much better team than now for years.
Starting in 2024 5+ years in the playoffs at a minimum if that falls into place.
#8 · August 22, 2023, 6:09 pm
- Lots of moving parts for sure but the two guys on this team that are a must resign or extend is Blake Snell…the guy is just a gamer and walks aside this team cannot afford to lose him with Darvish getting older and Musgrove with a potential shoulder problem…pay Snell whatever it takes and the other is Ha Seong Kim…he should have won the gold glove last year and should win one this year and he is really the only guy that plays with passion and a high motor. He has become a very good hitter in the lead off spot and is the MVP of this year’s team in my opinion.
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#9 · August 22, 2023, 7:05 pm
Note that Kim is currently sitting 4th in MLB WAR for the season … in his case stats support his image as a productive star.
#10 · August 25, 2023, 6:02 pm
Kim is now sitting #11 in WAR for position players at 4.5 (2022 he was at 3,7 … so running a 2 year history). Those are both quality numbers (note in 2023 Tatis is at 3.8 and Soto is at 3.6 and making big money).
With Kim being just 27 he makes Swanson a good comp who signed a big FA contract last winter with the Cubs. Swanson is at 3.9 WAR this season (big season in 2022) but career just under 4.0 and signed his big deal at age 28.
Swanson’s deal: 7 years at a $25.3 AAV.
That makes the Padres decision tree all that much more difficult if as reported they still plan to go all in Ohtani this winter … NEED to sign a TOP of the rotation arm (re-sign Snell at around $25MM AAV?) … Soto after 2024 (with Boras as his agent) will be pushing at a minimum 15 years / $450MM ($30MM AAV) or less years more AAV but still coming in around $450MM.
IF the Padres are successful in signing Ohtani and Snell this winter … does that spell the end of Soto and/or Kim as FA after 2024? With Merrill a possibility for 2024 … do they deal one of Soto or Kim?