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Fernando Tatis, Jr

2019 Baseball America Prospect Handbook Cover Boy!

2019 Baseball America Prospect Handbook

 

This is a beautiful

Here's the ZiPS projection from fangraphs ... those batting averages and OBPs are a bit sobering ...

Elegy for ’18 – San Diego Padres

ZiPS Projections – Fernando Tatis Jr.
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
2019 .224 .288 .398 518 71 116 20 5 20 78 42 197 19 95 -2 1.5
2020 .238 .311 .442 504 75 120 22 6 23 85 49 187 16 110 -1 2.8
2021 .247 .323 .498 506 80 125 22 6 31 94 52 181 16 121 -1 4.1
2022 .245 .325 .496 506 80 124 22 6 31 93 55 187 15 122 -1 4.1
2023 .244 .325 .501 505 81 123 22 6 32 94 56 187 15 123 -1 4.2
2024 .240 .324 .493 499 80 120 21 6 31 92 57 187 15 121 -1 4.0
2025 .237 .323 .486 490 78 116 20 6 30 89 58 184 13 119 -2 3.7

Those are Hunter Renfroe numbers.

Not bad but would have expected more from baseballs top prospect.

The problem with projections is that in the case of Tatis, you have limited data to extrapolate from. As I understand it, these are median projections - Not an absolute that he will hit .224 or .241. I'm pretty sure if he ends up being a 4.5 WAR player by his early 20's, nobody will be complaining.

Quote from Ryan Payne on September 23, 2018, 8:08 pm

The problem with projections is that in the case of Tatis, you have limited data to extrapolate from. As I understand it, these are median projections - Not an absolute that he will hit .224 or .241. I'm pretty sure if he ends up being a 4.5 WAR player by his early 20's, nobody will be complaining.

That's my understanding, too. Just as they don't account for a potential crater/plateau in AAA, they don't account for additional growth and development. They just kind of extrapolate based on what we've seen so far, which isn't really a great way to realistically project the career of a 21 year old prospect.

They're more just for fun than anything else, really.

https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/fernando-tatis-jr-hits-winter-league-home-run/c-300745204

Tatis went deep again yesterday and now has 2 HRs and 2 SBs through 4 games

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l131&t=g_box&gid=2018_11_18_estwin_torwin_1

 

Here's the video:

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/padres-fernando-tatis-jr-hit-a-massive-home-run/c-300896822

 

 

I wonder what the White Sox fans think when they see Tatis in the top 5 on every prospect list?

And videos like this.....

 

Quote from David Nevin on November 19, 2018, 11:34 am

I wonder what the White Sox fans think when they see Tatis in the top 5 on every prospect list?

And videos like this.....

 

Same thing we think when Corey Kluber takes the mound for CLE and dominates.