Forum
Forum Navigation
2025 Padres Season
#81 · October 22, 2024, 3:20 am
In his presser, Preller did IMPLY that they have not locked into a specific payroll cap for 2025 and IMPLIED that may exceed the CBT threshold IF building the roster correctly calls for it. He also left open trading pieces if that works for roster construction. Note that Preller in these pressers leaves all the options open … commits to little.
If Preller approaches this winter like last … we may not see some of the adds materialize until the Spring.
When the FA are declared … the 40 man roster will have a lot of open slots and really not a lot of high profile minor leaguers that will be considered to protect from Rule 5. That is good given the need to sign quite a few bodies to rebuild (upgrade) the 26 man.
Not sure about the non-tenders of Wade and Patino … both will be just above league minimum and can be DFA later if the roster slot is needed. Wade especially since with the FA of Profar, Peralta, Ahmed, Solano, Kim the 40 man roster is is left with Lockridge, Rosario, Ornelas, Johnson to fill out the 26 man. Wade was appreciated by the Padres for is versatility and makes a decent (cheap) 13th position player … until a better options are signed. Patino is more at risk but Preller did claim him on waivers (not sure why but must see something) and can put him on the 60 day IL during ST (still recovering from TJ surgery) and will not take a roster slot. Small price to see it the potential of Patino can emerge (he is still youngish).
#82 · October 22, 2024, 3:35 am
Sasaki will be fascinating to analysis his signing logic (assuming he does become available). Since he is under the international signing bonus rules … no team can wildly out bid the others (some have more pool money to play with but the differential is probably not enough to offset Sasaki’s other considerations).
From Preller’s standpoint … with only Darvish, King, and Cease set in the starting 5 … expect him to make his SP moves to proceed without waiting for a Sasaki decision. If he gets Sasaki, just a bonus.
#83 · October 22, 2024, 5:15 am
#84 · October 22, 2024, 6:28 am
Quote from LynchMob on October 22, 2024, 5:15 amhttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/preller-discusses-padres-shortstop-situation.html
Does appear the Preller is looking beyond FA for SS but also trade options (no idea who may be available and at what price).
Would not even consider moving Merrill or Tatis back to SS … just creates different holes that may be even harder to fill (at a fair price).
I would seek a “filler” SS (Ahmed is a possibility) with defense and low cost so they have the money for SP. Offense is not the #1 problem for 2025. Bogaerts becomes the fallback option but the desired end state.
Since apparently Kim will not be ready to start the season (maybe not until mid-season) … wonder how cooperative Boras may be on a pillow contract with “reasonable” 2025 salary and club option for 2026 allowing Kim to hit FA again in 2027. Padres sign Ahmed to bridge to the return of Kim. Kim hits FA in 2027 when, hopefully, DeVries is ready to take over at SS.
IF as they say Kim will not resume throwing until ST … then a period of time before anyone can evaluate if his throwing arm is back to SS quality … might be tough for Boras to get a long term deal before the season starts. Makes a pillow deal possible … and Padres may be more willing to go that route (knowing the player Kim can be) while not having any quality alternatives. Could look at getting a healthy Kim for the second half and playoffs may justify the risk (if the cost is right).
So, would not rule out Kim re-signing with the Padres and being the starting SS mid-season.
Randy Manese and LynchMob have reacted to this post.
Randy ManeseLynchMob
#85 · October 22, 2024, 2:41 pm
MLB Winter League Meetings are scheduled for 9-12 December 2024 in Dallas. In the meantime, AJP will likely continue to do what he has done in the past, sign free agents to minor league contracts, scour the international free agent market and claim players off waivers all with the hope of finding pitching, both starting and relief.
Without much minor league prospect capital to trade and few major league contracts that can be moved, it's going to be a tight budget to fill all the holes that need to be filled for a competitive 2025 season. The bullpen could be the remedy to some of the holes but with the risk of having again (like he did in 2024) having to rebuild almost from the ground up. For example, Morejon and/or Hoeing may be tried at SP with my guess that Morejon would likely be the one to succeed in that role. There is the possibility we could try to move Suarez, Matsui and even W Peralta if he doesn't opt out of his contract. Who would close? Doesn't that leave us with no LHP in the pen to start 2025?
Suarez made 13M with bonuses, Matsui has a CBT of 5.6M while W Peralta's number is 4.125M. Since Suarez can opt out after the 2025 season, I'd look to either Jason Adam as my potential closer; I felt very secure every time he came in to pitch and I think we can sign him to an extension at a much lower rate than we would have to pay Suarez. I almost could say the same thing about Jeremiah Estrada but he is less experienced so less likely to get that high stress role. After all, Suarez had only 1 major league save prior to 2024; Estrada had 3 last year while Adam had a total of 24 in previous years.
While neither Matsui or Peralta's salary is unmanageable, I'm guessing AJP would like to use one or both of their CBT cap space toward arbitration eligibles or internal free agents. For example, you might be able to pay both Higgy and Campy with what you have to pay W Peralta. Also, Padres have several interesting LH RP arms that could end up on the 40 man - could see Omar Cruz, Ryan Och, Jayvien Sandridge joining a hopefully healthy Cosgrove from the left side. Longshot - Austin Davis.
So watch the transaction wire between now and 9 Dec. Don't expect many, if any, trades during this interim period but AJP likes to set the groundwork in the WLM for whatever is going to occur before the 2025 season opens. It should be a fun ride!
lafnboy13 and fenn68 have reacted to this post.
lafnboy13fenn68
#86 · October 22, 2024, 3:05 pm
It would be tempting to trade Suarez ... not only saves his salary but he likely could actually yield a useful return in the form of an quality prospect near ML ready (have to think a bit about the future).
I expect him to opt out after 2025 ... go on the market for top closer money ... Padres will not pay him top closer money ... so take the 2025 gamble on getting quality closing out of Adam and maybe Estrada or Reynolds ... with a "wild card" prospect out of AAA ... Pena (big FB).
Along the same lines ... if there is a market for him ... would consider moving Arraez and his $14.6 arb salary. He too will be a FA and likely want a contract (too big too long term) for the Padres' long term plans. May not get a good return since will not eat any contract money and Arraez only has one year ... but the objective is the money.
Take Suarez and Arraez money and convert it to signing Profar - Higashioka - Solano - Peralta - Ahmed and the offense should be fine while not being on the hook for a long time with the new contracts. At that point they will go over the CBT ... not a big issue in 2025 in level 1 ... and use that on SP.
#87 · October 23, 2024, 11:08 am
Saw a projection for Profar's FA contract .... 3 years / $42MM ($14MM AAV). Basically suggest Lourdes Gurriel as a comp contract. I did look at another comp Mark Canha 3 years ago signed a 3 year / $36MM contract at about the same age coming of a 2.9 WAR season ... Profar was at 4.3 (2nd best of FA LF) and then factor 3 years of inflation ... so that prediction may be close. Even with a SD discount that still is pretty steep.
Would note that the other productive FA for LF (Santander, O'Neill, Hernandez) are actually projected for equal or better deals ... so no better / cheaper option on the FA market. Nothing in house that in my view works for a playoff contender.
So, maybe a bigger issue for Preller dealing with an outsized Profar deal ... the hole without Kim ... the hole without Higashioka ... under a limited budget (not even considering SP).
Still think Profar may get done with the Padres BUT that likely closes even a creative door on Kim (especially if not available until mid season) ... and would not expect a significant signing for SS, C, or SP ... more serviceable pieces ... who collectively will still cost. Maybe save some dry powder and strategically make moves at the trade deadline ... think the base roster will keep them in playoff contention.
Side note: did hear Preller suggest that he does not want to move players around ... plans to tell them their role and "try" to stick with those commitments for the season. TBD but for me would seem Bogaerts (SS), Cronenworth (2B), Arraez (1B) as the baseline ... then filling DH becomes a bit easier than finding a SS. Add OF or INF and use DH as a rotational position ... cheaply.
#88 · October 23, 2024, 12:44 pm
Given payroll issues and maybe the need to deploy the payroll more effectively ... the potential of trading Arraez (one year control at about $14.6MM in ARB) ... seems to be an option. Preller may try but think it will be very hard to find a buyer (maybe no one).
Consider that in 2023 Arraez performed at a 3.3 WAR, 130 wRC+ ... excellent!
In May of 2024, Preller trades for Arraez (with MIA paying his salary) for Head (A ball, immediately injured and hip surgery ending season), Marsee (AA/AAA, hit 200/345/315 ... 51 SB ... not impressive), Martorella (AA, hit 229/306/385 ... not impressive), and Go (AA/AAA ...6.54 ERA/1.72 WHIP ... not impressive). Basically Preller gave up nothing of value for 2 years (one free) of a 3.3 WAR player.
Move to this winter and Arraez has only 1 year control and carries a $14.6 salary ... after coming off a 1.1 WAR season. Trade Arraez? Would any team want him let alone give anything back? Considering the details around the trade that brought him to SD ... he has less value now ... so probably no buyers UNLESS Preller added some prospects and bought down his contract (not something the Padres are positioned to do).
Looks as though Arraez stays for 2025.
#89 · October 23, 2024, 1:16 pm
While Arraez's abilities are definitely limited and not worth $14 mil per....we also have to realize he played the 2nd half with an injured hand and he likely would hit .330+ next season if remains healthy.
His WAR is definitely going to be limited as a Firstbaseman considering he will be compared to other 1B who play better defense and hit for power.
I would find a power hitting 1B and use Arraez as a DH only....or rotate Arraez and the 1B addition between 1b/DH in '25.
Jake needs to be at 2B to add value to this team.
#90 · October 24, 2024, 6:40 am
Crazy idea , If we can't sign Sasaki . Trade Cease and Arraez and use the estimated 28 million and sign Snell . We need a killer and 2nd half Snell is and Cease is not , too inconsistent . Keep Xander at SS for this year. Jake to 2nd where his bat and defense is a better fit than 1st . Trade for a low cost risky 1B like Torkelson or Andrew Vaughn and hope one of them works out.
Not perfect but I don't want to count on Cease next year .