Mendez Headlines Padres Rule 5 Decisions

There were years over the last the decade when the Padres faced many difficult decisions about which players to add to the 40-player roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft. As this year’s deadline for roster inclusion looms Tuesday afternoon, the club doesn’t face many dilemmas.

With only 34 players currently on the big league roster and an incredibly thin group in the upper minors, there are more than enough spaces for any player who might get consideration.

Players who first signed at 18 years old or younger in 2021 or before, or who began their professional careers at 19 or more by 2022, are eligible for the Rule 5 draft at the end of next month’s Winter Meeting.

Any player selected must remain in the big leagues for the entire season or be offered back to their original team. That means that teams are not just deciding who the best players in their system are, but whether they can afford to leave someone off the 40-player roster and extend their window of control.

Lock to be Added

Miguel Mendez, RHP
A year ago, Mendez topped out at number 22 on our individual Top 30 lists. Today, coming off a dominant year, he’s clearly the top right-handed pitching prospect in the organization and the best starter above Low-A in the system. The 23-year-old signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2021, but didn’t get to High-A Fort Wayne until May of this year. Despite a wispy-thin build, the righty gets to triple-digit velocity on his fastball and can show off a nasty slider. While he made impressive strides in his control and command this year, he still has a worrying tendency toward bouts of wildness. However, his stuff, results, and proximity – not to mention the Padres’ dearth of starting pitching options – make him an easy call to be added to the big league roster.

Likely Targets

Francis Peña, RHRP
The rare international free agent who didn’t get his first contract until just days before his 21st birthday, Peña has established himself among the deep stable of talented relievers in the Padres organization. After a dominant 2024 campaign, the righty took a step back in El Paso this year as his walk rate spiked to 14.3% and his strikeout rate plummeted to 19.8%. However the 24-year-old can dial it up over 100 mph with his sinker and has the profile that would make it easy for another team to stash him at the back of a big league bullpen this year. If the Padres’ roster was as deep as it’s been in the past, this might be a tough decision. As it stands, Peña is likely to be protected.

Garrett Hawkins, RHRP
Twelve months ago, Hawkins was very much a wildcard, just looking to get back to competition following 2023 Tommy John surgery. The big righty from Saskatchewan returned healthy this spring and stepped into the Fort Wayne bullpen. There, he went on a run of historic proportions, going almost four months without allowing an earned run. He kept things going at Double-A down the stretch, posting a 1.69 ERA and 30.3% strikeout rate for the Missions. Hawkins’ stuff isn’t as flashy as that of Mendez or Peña, but his fastball has great shape and he is able to run it up to the upper-90s in relief. Hawkins, who was a below-slot sign as a ninth-round pick out of the University of British Columbia in 2021, could certainly garner plenty of attention if he’s left unprotected heading into his age-26 season. With the depth in the Padres’ bullpen, he’s 50/50 to be added in advance of the deadline.

Others of Note

Jagger Haynes, LHP
Haynes was eligible last year, but having just topped 100 innings for the first time professionally in his High-A debut, there was little chance he’d be taken. This year, he had solid results in San Antonio, but the 23-year-old is still unlikely to be able to stick even if he were to be selected. The Padres will hope that he takes another step forward with his command and durability this year and forces his way into the conversation for a big league role by the end of the year.

Braedon Karpathios, OF
An undrafted free agent out of community college in 2022, the left-handed outfielder has made impressive strides in the organization and has looked strong in the Arizona Fall League. While he’s emerged as one of the Padres’ top position prospects, no outfielder has been selected in the Major League Phase since 2022, and his profile isn’t likely to afford him a spot on a big league roster even if a team were to call his name next month.

Andrew Moore, RHRP
Moore’s stuff out of the bullpen is electric, helping to explain how the Padres became the second team to acquire him in a trade for a big leaguer since he was drafted out of Chipola College in 2022. He also has 20-grade command, which explains why two teams have been willing to move on from the big-armed righty in three years. Moore punched out 31% of the batters he faced in Double-A this year, but also walked an almost unfathomable 41 – along with six hit batters and as many wild pitches – in 43 innings. While the arsenal is enticing, Moore is a player the organization has to feel comfortable exposing to the Rule 5 process.

Other eligible players who have logged Double-A time:

Francisco Acuña, INF*
Marcos Castañon, INF
Manuel Castro, RHRP
Clay Dungan, INF*
Rodolofo Durán, C*
Logan Gillaspie, RHP*
Jared Kollar, RHP
Kevin Kopps, RHRP
Victor Lizarraga, RHP
Carter Loewen, RHRP
Isaiah Lowe, RHP
Kai Murphy, OF
Ryan Och, LHRP
Devin Ortiz, 3B
Cole Paplham, RHRP
Enmanuel Pinales, RHP
Pablo Reyes, INF*
Tyler Robertson, OF
Ethan Routzahn, RHRP
Romeo Sanabria, 1B
Anthony Vilar, C/2B

* Signed a minor league contract with the Padres already this winter