Slumber Company: Padres Pitching Prospect Sleepers

There is no organization in baseball that has too much pitching. For the Padres in particular, the depth across the system is not great. While 10 different pitchers who currently project as starters landed among the Padres’ top 20 prospects for 2025, there aren’t a lot of frontline options among them.

Things look better in relief, where three pitchers with back-of-the-pen stuff appear ready to contribute as soon as this year.

A next tier of prospects appeared on at least one of our individual Top 30 lists over the winter, a group that includes interesting arms who have significant questions to answer.

To be eligible as a sleeper, a pitcher can’t have appeared in any of our Top 30s this year. (You can read about position player sleepers here.) That means these are pretty deep cuts in the organization, but each of them provides a reason for optimism. Last year’s group includes three guys who, because of injuries or suspension, didn’t throw a competitive pitch last year, but it also includes a likely member of the 2025 big league rotation and several guys who graduated to our top 30s this year.

Starters

Top 20: Kash Mayfield (3), Humberto Cruz (4), Boston Bateman (5), Henry Baez (6), Isaiah Lowe (7), Braden Nett (8), Jagger Haynes (9), Ryan Bergert (10), Victor Lizarraga (16), Omar Cruz (20)
Others receiving votes: Kannon Kemp, Jared Kollar, Austin Krob, Miguel Mendez, Enmanuel Pinales

Bryan Balzer
Balzer, whose father is an American citizen, was born in Japan and spent much of his childhood there. He signed as an international free agent out of high school in January 2023 for the $10,000 maximum the Padres were able to offer, and then immediately underwent Tommy John surgery. Now 20 years old, Balzer was already lighting up radar guns in Peoria last summer as he rehabbed, and he’s since added bulk to his 6-foot-3 frame. The righty has formed a relationship with Yu Darvish, shadowing him at the complex during spring training and clearly emulating his delivery. Balzer will open the year in Elsinore. If he can show a feel for his explosive repertoire there, he could quickly emerge as a name to follow.

Yovannki Pascual
Having allocated almost all of their international money in the 2023 and 2024 classes to just three players, the Padres had to get creative with their foreign scouting. One way they did so was by aggressively pursuing older pitchers. The club struck gold with Francis Peña and has had encouraging results from Enmanuel Pinales as $10,000 signees in the 2022 class. They hope that Pascual, who was 20 when he signed out of the Dominican Republic for their final $40,000 in January 2023, will emerge as the next success story. The lefty can run his sinker up to the upper-90s and shows the makings of a solid changeup and sweeper. He punched out a quarter of the batters he faced working in short bursts in the ACL last summer, then looked hittable in a brief cameo for the Storm at the end of the season. His arsenal and age may ultimately lead to a move to the bullpen, but for now, Pascual will get an opportunity to show off his enticing pitch mix in the Elsinore rotation.

Ian Koenig
Koenig was an unheralded 150-pound righty when he finished high school in Santa Cruz County in 2019. He headed to community college as he watched his older brother, Jared, chase an opportunity at affiliated baseball through multiple seasons in independent ball. He committed to adding strength and improving his mechanics, capitalizing on eligibility rules during the pandemic to spend three seasons at Cabrillo College. By 2022, he was 6-foot-2 and 215 pounds and touching 95 with his fastball, which earned him an opportunity as part of the Padres’ remarkably deep undrafted free-agent class. Koenig wound up having Tommy John surgery in 2023, returning to action two days shy of a year later. He showed off a deep arsenal, including an above-average slider to post a 25.4% strikeout rate while walking just 6% of batters in 43 innings for Lake Elsinore before he tore his lat in August. He’ll be 24 when he opens the year in the Fort Wayne rotation. Still, if he can remain healthy, his impressive array of average-or-better offerings should help him continue to post impressive numbers at the higher level.

Relievers

Top 20: Sean Reynolds (13), Bradgley Rodriguez (14), Francis Peña (17)
Others receiving votes: Manuel Castro, David Morgan, Cole Paplham

Luis German
German has some of the biggest velocity in the organization, but he’s shown 20-grade command since coming into the system as a 20-year-old in 2022. The Dominican righty worked with pitching coordinator Nelson Rada over the winter to shorten his arm action and begin to dial in some consistent feel for his high-octane repertoire. He was one of the early talks of camp this spring. He’ll need to show that he can maintain his upper-90s velo while also throwing strikes, but if he can, he will add to a deep pool of high-leverage arms in the system.

Ethan Routzahn
The Illinois native initially went to Dallas Baptist out of high school way back in 2017, but did not appear in a game his freshman year and transferred to junior college in Florida. He then found an opportunity at St. John’s in 2019, and by the next year, had claimed a spot at the back of the Red Storm’s bullpen before COVID shut things down. He wound up back in Queens as a 23-year-old the next year before the Padres – who always have room for relievers with atypical deliveries – signed him as an undrafted free agent. Since coming into professional ball, the hard-throwing sidearmer has been a strike-throwing ground ball machine, but he found himself back in High-A Fort Wayne for the third straight spring to open last year. By the end of the season, he had thrown 23 innings in Triple-A, where he posted a stellar 2.35 ERA, fueled by an absurd 3.3% walk rate. While he wasn’t invited to big league camp this spring, Routzahn is definitely on the radar for the Padres. If he continues to perform, his unique skill set could get him a chance at the game’s highest level.

Jackson Smeltz
By the time the Padres drafted Smeltz out of Purdue in the 10th round in 2022, the lefty had already overcome enough challenges for an entire career. The Lafayette, Indiana, native had a brain tumor when he was in junior high that left him unable to attend school for a full year. Fully recovered, he emerged as a highly-regarded prospect, committing to Oklahoma State after his freshman year. But then he had elbow issues that ultimately led to Tommy John surgery. He threw just three more innings in high school and ultimately wound up at nearby Purdue. He had more elbow issues, a torn hip labrum, and navigated the pandemic before breaking out as a 23-year-old senior to strike out 79 in 57.1 innings for the Boilermakers. His health issues continued after he joined the Padres organization, costing him all of the 2023 season. He was ready to debut at the start of last season when he sprained his ankle in a fluke accident. When he finally got on the mound, the results were impressive. Smeltz struck out 23 in 15.1 innings for Fort Wayne, dialing his fastball up to the upper-90s and showing a wicked slider. Given all the interruptions to his career, Smeltz has only 20.1 professional innings under his belt as a 26-year-old, giving him a narrow window. However, the stuff is real, and if he can put together a fully healthy year, he could move through the upper minors quickly.

Wildcards

Others receiving votes: Sean Barnett*, Clark Candiotti, Juan Nuñez
*Barnett will be going out as a two-way player in 2025.

The pitchers here are returning from injuries, have very little track record but some intriguing characteristics, or both.

Garrett Hawkins
The Padres drafted the big righty out of NAIA University of British Columbia as a $75,000 senior sign in the ninth round in 2021. He posted a stellar 108:20 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 77.2 innings for Lake Elsinore in 2022 but took a step backward when he got to High-A. He got off to a solid start in 2023 but then dealt with elbow issues and wound up having Tommy John in August and missed all of 2024. Now 25, he’s looking to open the year back in the Fort Wayne rotation and show that he still has the repertoire that had him ranked in our Top 20 prospects two years ago.

Maikel Miralles
A $10,000 signee out of Venezuela in 2023, Miralles threw only 10.1 innings in the DSL that first summer as the organization worked with him to clean up his delivery. He came stateside as a 19-year-old last year and showed a pretty advanced feel for his repertoire in the desert. He’ll need plenty of development time as he heads back to Lake Elsinore in his age-20 season, but he already shows a solid pitch mix and has demonstrated an ability to make adjustments both in games and between them.

Carson Montgomery
The righty from the Orlando area was highly-regarded out of high school, but his high bonus demand and the shortened 2020 draft meant he made it to campus at Florida State. Heading into his junior year as a Seminole, he was a popular pick to put together a big season and surge into the draft’s early rounds. Instead, he posted a 7.00 ERA and walked or hit more than one batter per inning. Still, the Padres thought highly enough of his abilities to agree to a $200,000 contract with him as an 11th-rounder in 2023. Montgomery showed good stuff when he opened his professional career in Lake Elsinore last spring, but was shut down after just three starts. He tried to rehab an elbow injury, but ultimately had Tommy John surgery in July. He may not see competitive action until the very end of the year, but remains one of the more intriguing unknown quantities in the system.