2024 Draft Q&A: Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo

The Padres made headlines throughout the year by augmenting their Major League roster by trading dozens of minor league prospects. While former 2022 first-rounder Dylan Lesko and Comp-A pick Robby Snelling were moved out, the Padres added to the system in this year’s draft. 

San Diego selected prep lefty Kash Mayfield with their first pick and added three high school picks early before opting for mostly college players after the fifth round.

Carlos Collazo has covered the draft for Baseball America, writing hundreds of scouting reports while traveling around the country and getting a first-hand look at the draft’s top prospects. He answered some questions about what the Padres did in this year’s July draft. 

MadFriars: More college players were selected for this year’s draft. Some of the thought is that Major League Baseball teams might defer some development to NCAA coaching staffs. Was that a factor in more college players being selected, or was it considered just a weak draft for high school players?

Carlos Collazo: I think it’s probably a combination of factors. Major League teams have been trending more toward college players for a while now. The perception is that those players offer a little bit more safety, you have a lot more data, and you have much more development done at the college level, as you mentioned. Part of it is the restructuring of the minor leagues and fewer spots for long-term projection players in the minor leagues. Also, this year’s high school class may be one of the worst.

I talked to several scouts who outright called it the worst high school class they have ever covered; it was the weakest high school class I have seen, going back to 2017. So, I think those factors led to being college-heavy at the top. 

Is this a trend continuing because of those limited roster spots in the minors? 

Carlos Collazo: I think, generally, the majority of players will come from the college demographic. Regarding the first round and the top-end, elite prospects, I think teams are still really excited about high school players. So I would expect that as we get more typical high school classes in the future, we will see a lot of high school players drafted early – the Bobby Witt Jr. of the world, the Jordan Lawlar, Marcelo Mayer‘s, Jackson Holliday, regardless of your philosophy in general, if you get those elite, athletic, high-upside high school players, most teams are going to be attracted to those profiles.

Looking at the last two years, I call it the Shohei effect. The Padres drafted and announced Tucker Musgrove as a two-way player; this year, they also drafted Sean Barnett in the 11th round in the same role. Are those two players outliers, or are more two-way players being developed and drafted?

Carlos Collazo: I think more than anything, Shohei Ohtani just makes people believe that every player drafted as a two-way player has a chance to be a two-way player at the Major League level. I sincerely think that Shohei is just an outlier; many people believe Ohtani is a sign of more two-way players to come, but it shows how incredibly rare and impressive it is to do that.

Even Jac Caglianone [drafted fifth overall by the Royals in this year’s draft] is one of the most prominent two-way players we’ve seen out of college. I’d be surprised if he were a two-way player in any capacity at the big league level. And this is a guy who was taken inside the first ten picks. I would not expect many day-two or day-three players to go on to be regular two-way players at the big league level. A two-way prospect is interesting because there is still a lot of projection you can dream of once they start to focus on one side. But no, I wouldn’t say that Ohtani will lead to more two-way players going to the majors. 

It is typical for teams to let two-way players try the two-way experiment early in their careers. You see this with guys like Bubba Chandler, who pitched and hit early on, and Reggie Crawford, who hit and pitched, but sooner or later, their better side shows out, and teams are incentivized to maximize what they are best at. That’s just the norm for most two-way players. 

Looking at the Padres draft, they only drafted five high school players, with one of them being left-handed pitcher Kash Mayfield in the first round. You mentioned in your pre-draft report that he gained a lot of velocity in his final high school season.

One of the concerns from Padres fans has been that left-handed pitchers like Lucchesi and Lauer have thrown in the low 90s and haven’t necessarily developed into rotation mainstays. Is Mayfield someone who can find that extra gear and sit in the mid-90s instead of the low-90s?

Carlos Collazo: Yeah, we will see. I think the big thing with him was adding that velocity. He was sitting 94 mph late in the spring season. Sitting at 94 mph in high school on that sort of schedule is quite different from a pro schedule where you pitch more frequently, so I will be intrigued to see his average velocity.

I wouldn’t expect that he’s the type that has elite pure velocity, but what stands out with Mayfield is the quality of the delivery, the quality of strikes, and the depth of his arsenal. The fact that he has a high-quality slider is a changeup to go with improving fastball velocity. For me, he delivers the best in the class. We had a lot of reliever-ish pitchers in this year’s draft, and he looks more like a starter than many of the pitchers who were taken in front of him, around him, or behind him. 

I think what you are looking at is a well-rounded pitching prospect more than any high-velocity flame-thrower, and I think that’s fine. He’s old for the high school class, but in terms of pitching development, he’s still got plenty of time to add strength and power. The sum of his parts is pretty appealing to me. 

For Mayfield, is more of a command-over stuff pitcher at this point? When the Padres drafted Dylan Lesko a few years ago, we heard his stuff was better than the command. What can Padres fans expect from Mayfield?

Carlos Collazo: I think Lesko had better command than Mayfield then. All of [Lesko’s] control issues are post-Tommy John surgery. He was probably the most well-rounded prospect with dynamic stuff in high school pitching. If you look at our draft reports of Lesko, it’s a pitcher with elite-elite pure stuff and command.

As an underclassman, Mayfield would have been a command-over stuff pitcher, relative to maybe pitchers in the first round. I think it’s probably true to say he’s a command and control guy over stuff, just because there’s a lot of really loud stuff and more questionable strike-throwers around him. Still, I think the fact that he went in the first round, and we had him ranked as a first-round prospect because of the uptick in velocity, has caught up to the control in the class. We put three pitchers in the high school class with 60-grade future control projections, and he was one of those. I do think, in general, that command stands out for him compared to his peers. 

Moving on to the Padres’ second-round pick, left-handed pitcher Boston Bateman, there’s always a concern with a 6-foot-8 pitcher being able to repeat his delivery. Are there any concerns with his mechanics impacting his ability to throw strikes?

Carlos Collazo: Yeah, I think that’s always something you will wonder about with big players. There was a positive piece of feedback this spring, as scouts were impressed with how well they did.

He was able to repeat those mechanics and deliveries. He was among the more impressive spring high school class performers in a solid competition area, so it’s encouraging to see that. Moving forward, he has a massive frame; he must maintain that. That will be one of the bigger questions [for him]. There’s a significant gap in the command and control between Mayfield and Bateman, so we are just seeing how that develops and what sort of upside he does reach.

Your scouting report on Bateman shows him reaching 94 mph. Could he gain an extra tick or two in velocity?

Carlos Collazo: We have him up to 96 mph. HHe’sbeen more in the 90-94 mph range. He has a little more in the tank. I would expect as he gets a little bit older, even though he is pretty maxed out physically, and I’m not sure how much stronger you can bank on him getting as he learns to sequence more consistently; I think you are just going to unlock a bit more fastball velocity naturally. I can see him touching 97 or 98 mph in the future; that wouldn’t be too surprising. 

After the draft came out, there was a piece in Baseball America in which Boston Bateman and fifth-rounder Kale Fountain were cited as players for whom the BA 500 valued more than one million less than they signed for. What were the reasons for those players being overvalued? 

Carlos Collazo: That list takes the BA 500 rankings and assigns those rankings to slot valuations. We simply look at the difference in our BA value in their signing bonus amount versus what they got. Many of the players on that list were just high school players with leverage and could command large bonuses. Guys whom we like, [for example] Luke Dickerson or PJ Morlando, are all top-60 players who have just been paid a lot of money. You can just look at it and say, ‘’he is the worst value on paper, so we don’t like the player.’’- I think that is a little overly simplistic. I think, in general, it’s just that they have a lot of money, which is the reason. All of these guys are top 130 players; I think the fact that the Padres were able to sign Kale Fountain in the fifth round is a really impressive win for them. They clearly identified him, signed him, and then lined up some picks in the seventh through tenth rounds to ensure they could afford that bonus. There’s no extra risk in Bateman or Fountain because they appeared on that list. [That list] is mainly just to see if you were just drafted off of the BA 500, the picks the list would like, and the ones they wouldn’t like. But there is a tiering process regarding talent that I don’t think is captured if you assign the exact slot values to each player. It’s not super-nuanced so that I wouldn’t read into it overly.

There was not a lot of information about third-rounder infielder Cobb Hightower before the draft. What can you tell us about him? 

Carlos Collazo: There are some players in the past where I’ve scratched my head wondering– and Cobb Hightower is an excellent example from this Padre’s class; I didn’t know much about him when he was taken in the third round. Every team that picks these players knows more about them than anyone who covers them publicly or is a fan of the team. I’m mostly intrigued to see why we missed Cobb and why the Padres like him. The Padres do an excellent job of scouting, and this guy is interesting now because there’s a disconnect between my information and what the Padres have. 

I wouldn’t say he was a pop-up player; we didn’t have him. It was a case of when he was taken, I was like, what, ‘who is this guy?’  So, a pop-up would indicate that many people were in on him later in the spring, like Luke Dickerson, who would be a great example of a pop-up. We had him around top-300 and then moved up to the top-60 because he was so impressive during the Spring. Cobb was more under-the-radar, Evan Carter-type, and I don’t think everyone had him turned in. He was not heavily scouted. He was one of those players that the Padres seemed quite a bit higher than most of the teams in the industry. 

The first college player the Padres selected was righty Tyson Neighbors in the fourth round. From my vantage point, he seems like the most big league-ready player the Padres drafted. Are the command issues that are vast with him that he’s projected to be a reliever even with three quality pitches? Is the consensus that the command isn’t going to develop enough for him to have a chance to start?

Carlos Collazo: I’d be pretty surprised if he were a starter. He’s only relieved in college and has done well in that role. He has a pitch mix that fits nicely in a reliever role. He is a fringy strike-thrower. I don’t see any reason you would take him and put him in the starting rotation. As you said, he is pretty advanced and ready to move quickly in a reliever role, so let him go. He was drafted in a range where the top relievers in the class started to come off the board. I don’t think you anticipate that player converting to a starter at the next level. I think he excels in his role. He’s got two loud pitches in the fastball and slider that pair nicely together. We saw guys like Michael Massey [Wake Forest pitcher] with similar profiles to Tyson Neighbors this spring. The stuff backed up; maybe health and injuries were a factor there. He is probably a reliever moving forward, and I expect the same for neighbors. 

One of my favorite picks was Tennessee outfielder Kavares Tears, who the Padres also took in the fourth round. He was a player that seemed to take a big leap forward this season. He has tremendous power but seemed to have some issues making consistent contact. Do scouts think he will make enough contact to let that power play in pro ball?

Carlos Collazo: Yeah, that is the big question. Kavares was one of those guys who was tricky for me throughout the spring. We were consistently lower on him than many people in the industry, playing catch-up a little bit. He was moving up boards steadily for us, but even later in the process, we jumped him to the top 100 because we kept getting more feedback to move him up.

I am more skeptical of the hit tool and contact ability. I wonder how he will get to his power in-game with a wood bat. But I also think where the Padres selected him at pick 134 is a perfectly reasonable range to take him because he has tools and power. He is fast; he showed some improvement in his approach this spring, which could be a sign of future things. So, in terms of the risk-reward profile, where they have to draft him to access, that is a perfectly reasonable pick. But moving forward, the amount of contact he makes will be the biggest question. I think it will be a good pick if he’s making contact. But I think there is some bust risk here because of that contact ability. 

Does Tears have the ability to stick in center field? 

Carlos Collazo: He is an above-average runner underway. We haven’t seen that play consistently on the bases. I think he will wind up being more of a corner guy. If he plays center, I imagine you don’t have an elite center fielder to push him off the position. As he moves up, there will be better defenders than him in center field. So maybe a guy can play there in a pinch, but I wouldn’t look at him and think he’s a long-term, everyday center fielder. 

Kale Fountain was drafted in the fifth round and received a significant bonus. It’s an interesting pick because the Padres haven’t typically drafted many corner infield guys with power potential. Will he develop as a hitter to tap into his power? 

Carlos Collazo: For most of the hitters in any draft class, evaluating the hit tool is the biggest question. No one can say that he is a bigger guy with longer levers. There’s some swing-and-miss in his game. I think I would have more optimism in his hit tool than Kavares [Tears] because he’s younger.

Fountain has shown a more advanced approach at a younger age. I thought he looked impressive on the showcase circuit against some of the better pitchers in the class. Given his raw power now, I think his power upside is greater based on his size. I guess the upside is quite a bit higher for him than Tears. The signing bonuses would be lining up with that, but obviously, the high school factor and your leverage are slightly different. He’s going to need to prove that he can handle pro-pitching. I think consistently seeing quality secondary [pitches] will be important for me. I don’t have too many concerns about him catching up to velocity. I think he’s shown enough bat speed and turned around enough 90+ mph stuff in the past; he certainly has enough bat speed for that. 

The questions for him will be: how much of that power will you tap into in pro games with wood because of its massive power potential, and then how good is the glovework going to be at third base? I think he’s got the arm for the position, but I am not sure how high-quality an athlete he is and if his footwork will be good enough. He is pretty tall. So there are some questions here, but he has some pretty big upside. I don’t think anyone in the class they drafted this year has the power upside he provides.