Updated 2024 Top 20 Padres Prospects

Typically, we haven’t made in-season updates to our Top 20 prospect rankings. However, even by the Padres’ standard, there’s been a ton of turnover this season. Between the graduations of Jackson Merrill (1), Randy Vásquez (13), and Eguy Rosario (15), and trades that sent Jairo Iriarte (6), Drew Thorpe (7), Jakob Marsee (9), Samuel Zavala (10), Dillon Head (12), and Nathan Martorella (19) to other organizations, nearly half our original Top 20 are no longer eligible.

Based on all the churn, we’ve decided to provide a mid-year update. We haven’t re-ordered the 11 players remaining from February but added the next wave to the list.

Understandably, this list features much less upper-end talent than the one we published four months ago, and the system’s depth is at its lowest in many years. That said, there is still some premium upside and an interesting array of talent with room to take off.

Original MadFriars Top 20 for 2024:

(All ages as of July 1)

1) Ethan Salas
Position: C
Height/Weight: 6-2/185
Age: 18
Bats/Throws: L/R
How Acquired: 2023 International Free Agent

Highlights: Salas captured everyone’s imagination last year with a scorching .366/.416/.720 July slash line in the California League after turning 17 on June 1. He demonstrated an excellent idea of the strike zone and a smooth lefthanded swing that already generates plenty of power and loft, even as he has room to add significant strength in the coming years. Defensively, he’s even more impressive with fluid receiving and a strong arm behind the plate. His aptitude, ability, and projection make him one of the organization’s most exciting prospects we’ve ever covered. However, there’s some concern that the organization’s pedal-to-the-metal approach could backfire in having him as ready to contribute as possible when he arrives in the big leagues.

Concerns: After his big July, the Padres made the questionable decision to promote the 17-year-old to Double-A after just a nine-game pit stop in High-A Fort Wayne. Not surprisingly, he struggled while more than two years younger than any other player in the Texas League. Defensively, despite playing half of his games at DH, he seemed a little worn down at arguably the most demanding defensive job on the field before a knee injury ended his season early. He hasn’t looked the same since last July.

Projection: If we were making decisions for the organization, Salas would have finished 2023 in Lake Elsinore, or maybe gotten a cup of coffee in Fort Wayne at the end of the year, then gone into this season back at High-A. Ultimately, that’s where he entered this year. Salas already shows very good pop-times and arm strength behind the plate, and he’s demonstrated that he can be a force at the dish when things are on track. He’ll look to turn things up in the second half.

2) Dylan Lesko
Position: RHP/Starting Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6-2/205
Age: 20
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: First Round 2022 Draft (15th overall)

Highlights: Lesko was available to the Padres in the 2022 draft because of Tommy John surgery in his senior year of high school, which delayed his professional debut until last June. Once he got onto the mound in Arizona and Lake Elsinore, he showed glimpses of what could help him become a frontline pitcher. Lesko’s riding fastball at the top of the zone sat comfortably in the mid-90s and touched 98 at times while he continued to show one of the best changeups in the minor leagues, along with a better-than-advertised curve. The former star prep shortstop is also one of the better athletes in the Padres’ pitching corps. He was able to repeat his delivery and is a plus fielder on the mound.

Concerns: While individual offerings have looked good, Lesko has been unable to string them together consistently. He’s now more than two years removed from his surgery but still struggles badly with command. He recently put his breaking ball on the shelf to find the zone with his primary offerings.

Projection: While the Padres returned Lesko to Fort Wayne to begin the year, they hoped he could be in Double-A by the summer. Now, he’ll have to show he can cut down his walk rate and reintroduce his curve while he looks to rebound over the summer.

3) Robby Snelling
Position: LHP/Starting Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6-2/210
Age: 20
Bats/Throws: R/L
How Acquired: Competitive Balance Round A 2022 Draft (39th overall)

Highlights: The high school two-sport star outperformed the expectations of everyone except himself last year. The Reno area native posted a 1.83 ERA across three levels with 118 strikeouts and just 34 walks allowed in 103.2 innings. Opponents managed just four homers against him on the year. His best attribute might be his ability to take his performance to the next level in high-leverage situations.

At just 19, the Reno native worked with a low- to mid-90s fastball with a solid curve and a tighter slider that he relied on more as he moved up twice through his first professional season.

Concerns: As exceptional as the results in his debut campaign were, there were concerns about a need to refine his command in the zone and add a tick or two of velocity as he progresses. Instead, he’s seen his fastball settle in a few miles an hour slower this year and he’s issued more walks. Still the youngest pitcher in the Texas League, Snelling will need to figure out how to make it work against higher-level hitters.

Projection: Snelling got his first taste of big league spring training, but was optioned out early and returned to Double-A to open the year. He told us in May that his velocity drop was due to a dead arm phase, but as it becomes a longer-term trend, observers will be anxious to see it rebound.

4) Leo De Vries
Position: SS
Height/Weight: 6-1/185
Age: 17
Bats/Throws: B/R
How Acquired: 2024 International Free Agent

Highlights: In January, the Padres signed the consensus top player on the international amateur market for the second year. De Vries, who turned 17 this winter, has been on the Padres’ radar since he was 13 because of the switch-hitter’s sweet swing from both sides of the plate and premium athleticism.

With a build to profile up-the-middle on the infield, De Vries has stood out since he arrived in Peoria midway through spring training. He profiles favorably to 2022 top international free agent Roderick Arias because of his more advanced hit tool. However, Arias – who is playing at High-A this year – serves as a reminder that even elite young players have a long distance to cover before reaching the big leagues.

Projection: After opening the season in extended spring training, De Vries joined Lake Elsinore in late April but only logged seven games before he injured his non-throwing shoulder diving and missed two weeks. His numbers have been underwhelming, but he’s more than held his own, making good swing decisions and never looking overmatched as the youngest player in the Cal League. He could even return to Low-A to open the 2025 season and still be ahead of the curve.

5) Graham Pauley
Position: 3B/2B/LF
Height/Weight: 6-1/205
Age: 23
Bats/Throws: L/R
How Acquired: 13th Round 2022 Draft

Highlights: A late-round pick out of Duke University, Pauley produced in a brief cameo with the Storm in 2022, hitting .328/.458/.500 in 17 games, but no one could have predicted the type of year that the Georgia native would have last season. After continuing to rake in Lake Elsinore to open the campaign, he made mechanical and approach adjustments just before moving up to demolish the Midwest League with 16 homers in 45 games, though his strikeout rate jumped. When he landed in Double-A in August, he found a good balance in posting a .321/.375/.556 line while striking out just 13.6% of the time.

Concerns: After Pauley more than doubled his college career home run output in his first professional year, leading the system with 23 round-trippers, the Padres rushed him to the big leagues to open the 2024 campaign. In limited action across two stints in the Majors in March and April, he hit just .125 before the club sent him to El Paso. He’s struggled to get his feet under him there, with an OPS below .800 since early June. Pauley’s ultimate defensive position is still not sure, but if he can get back to last year’s production at the plate, it will open opportunities anywhere on the field.

Projection: After the aggressive promotion to open the year backfired, Pauley must return to the consistent hard contact he generated last year before a second chance at a big league role. He’s using the time in El Paso to work defensively at multiple positions to maximize his utility.

6) Adam Mazur
Position: RHP/Starting Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6-2/180
Age: 23
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: Second Round 2022 Draft

Highlights: Mazur has the makings to be a classic four-pitch pitcher. After earning Big 10 Pitcher of the Year honors at the University of Iowa, the Padres made him their second-round pick in 2022 but opted to keep him out of game competition. In his pro debut with Fort Wayne last year, the lanky righty showed a low-90s fastball that touched 95 early in the year and flashed a strong feel for his slider and change. Overall, his results in Fort Wayne were outstanding; he had a 2.01 ERA and the fifth-lowest walk rate in the league (minimum 50 innings). While his ERA nearly doubled after his promotion to San Antonio during the summer, his FIP only ticked up slightly at the higher level. After a brief stint in the Missions bullpen, he posted a strong 32:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30.1 innings across his final seven starts of the year. He built on that success to open the 2024 campaign, steamrolling the Texas League for six starts before a jump to El Paso and then the big leagues.

Concerns: Mazur’s fastball velocity faded down the stretch last year, and, despite a mix of solid offerings, it will be important to see if, after he added weight over the winter, he can keep his fastball in the 95 mph range it’s hung at through the first half of this season. Mazur, who’s always demonstrated impressive command, fought location in his four starts for the Padres in his first pass in a big league rotation.

Projection: The Minnesota native still has relatively few innings under his belt, so there’s more room for growth than many pitchers his age. Last year, a stint in the San Antonio bullpen gave him a little breather as he adjusted to a professional workload. This year, as he’s had opportunities to get his feet wet at the big league level, the training wheels are off. He’s on track for 140 innings this year, and with another offseason to add bulk, he should be a key part of the Padres’ rotation in 2025.

7) Ryan Bergert
Position: RHP/Starting Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6-1/210
Age: 24
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: Sixth Round 2021 Draft

Highlights: Bergert made a few mechanical tweaks to his delivery last season, helping him hold his velocity longer. Although he still walked a few too many people, he cut the number of home runs he allowed from 18 in 103.1 innings in 2022 to only four in 105.2 between Fort Wayne and San Antonio.

Bergert’s success last year depended on a riding fastball—described using current mechanics language as having a good induced vertical break—that got batters to swing under it frequently. A move away from a curve to a sweeper and a lower release on his fastball helped Bergert hit better spots in the zone and drove a significant drop in opponents’ average and home run rates, even after a midseason promotion to San Antonio.

Concerns: The fastball has flattened out this year, and the breaking ball is not as sharp, leading to a drop in strikeouts and a jump in hard contact. The only thing trending in the right direction through the year’s first half has been a sharp drop in the walk rate. He hasn’t appeared in a game since mid-June, though it’s not clear if that’s to work on the side or because of an injury.

Projection: Bergert’s release point has dropped even further this year, which appears to have taken away the most effective parts of his game. If he can find a spot that allows him to get back to the run he showed on his fastball last year, he could put himself back in the mix if the Padres need big league innings out of the bullpen or rotation late in the year.

8) Victor Lizarraga
Position: RHP/Starting Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6-3/205
Age: 20
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: 2020 International Free Agent

Highlights: Despite only turning 20 in the offseason, Lizarraga has relied on a more advanced command approach and off-speed pitches to succeed so far. After a dominant year in the Cal League in 2022, he struggled initially at last year’s Fort Wayne until he began to find more confidence in his curve and slider. Lizarraga’s fastball sits in the low 90s, so he will not blow anyone away, but he has an excellent changeup and appears to relish competing in the big moments. After several illnesses disrupted his campaign last year, he’s been healthy and getting much better results in Double-A this season.

Concerns: A hoped-for velocity increase hasn’t yet come, so he’s had to rely on guile and a changeup, which is his best offering. It’s a formula working in Double-A, but there is concern about how the repertoire profiles at the highest level.

Projection: At just 20 years old, Lizarraga is younger than every pitcher in the Texas League other than his teammate Snelling. That youth and a demonstrated ability to make adjustments give hope that he might get a boost in velocity by 2025. Even if that never comes, he might still be able to rely on his poise to get to the big leagues.

9) Homer Bush Jr.
Position: CF/OF
Height/Weight: 6-3/205
Age: 22
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: Fourth Round 2023 Draft

2023 Highlights: The day he signed, Bush became one of the most dynamic athletes in the system. A fourth-round pick out of Grand Canyon University, the second-generation Padres farmhand has top-of-the-scale speed and a good sense of getting the bat to the ball. After the draft, the club started him at the complex, where his raw talent outclassed opponents, helping him rack up a .520 wOBA fueled in part by an average on balls in play that almost reached .500. This season, he’s continued to show blazing speed – ranking among Midwest League stolen base, and a solid bat-to-ball ability.

Concerns: While Bush rarely strikes out, his contact-oriented swing generates almost no power. The 22-year-old’s isolated power rate through his first professional campaign is well below .100, a minor league rate that virtually no future big leaguer has produced over the last 50 years.

Projection: Bush received a lot of well-deserved credit for just how much he improved during his draft year and in his professional debut. He’s very good at several game elements, including defensively in center field, but the consensus is that the second-generation Padre will need to rework his swing to advance significantly.

10) Brandon Valenzuela
Position: C
Height/Weight: 6-2/225
Age: 23
Bats/Throws: B/R
How Acquired: 2017 International Free Agent

Highlights: Valenzuela has had stretches of solid offensive performance throughout his career, including an excellent first half of the 2023 season with the TinCaps, which he credited to being in better condition and healthier. This year, he’s on track for career highs in homers and extra-base hits, even while playing his home games in the offensive graveyard that is Wolff Stadium.

When he’s healthy, Valenzuela is one of the better defensive catchers and game managers in San Diego’s system, and the Mexican switch-hitter has a career .360 on-base percentage across five seasons.

Concerns: In addition to the hot streaks, Valenzuela has had some extended struggles at the plate throughout his career and has dealt with a series of injury issues. The 23-year-old ultimately may not hit enough to play every day, but he should be able to serve as a backup at the very least.

Projection: With Campusano ahead of him and Salas behind him, Valenzuela could be a natural trade target for any organization approaching the deadline. If healthy, the switch-hitting catcher should be in line for his first taste of the majors by the 2025 campaign.

11. Henry Baez
Position: RHP/Starting Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6-3/200
Age: 21
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: 2020 International Free Agent

Highlights: We had Baez as the top pitching prospect in the ACL in 2022. Then, as a 20-year-old, he put many things together in Lake Elsinore with a 3.24 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 83.1 innings before a brief cameo in Fort Wayne at the end of the year. More importantly, he improved as the season went on, giving up just two runs over his final 23.2 Cal League innings. He’s improved his strikeout and walk rates through the first half of 2024 while holding Midwest League to similar results as he allowed a level lower last season.

Concerns: Baez can touch 97 mph with his fastball but typically sits in the 93-95 range without a huge amount of carry. He can rely on a solid changeup, which made considerable progress last year, but he has yet to show a viable breaking ball with any regularity. Like many pitchers his age, command remains an issue, and he will need to throw more strikes as he advances.

Projection: Baez will fly under the radar compared to the guys already ahead of him in the system, but his stuff and mound presence both have the characteristics of a player who could emerge as a future big leaguer over the following season.

12. Isaiah Lowe
Position: RHP
Height/Weight:
Age: 20
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: 11th Round, 2022 Draft

Highlights: A relatively unheralded pitcher out of high school, Lowe agreed to an overslot deal as the Padres’ first pick on day three of the 2022 draft. He was held out of competition that summer but opened last season in Lake Elsinore. He impressed with a fastball/slider-heavy repertoire, striking out 17 across 11.1 innings in three starts, but was then shut down with shoulder issues. He spent the summer – and much of the winter – working on strengthening exercises to stabilize the shoulder and was protected to start the 2024 season.

Concerns: Lowe came into the system needing a fair amount of exposure to high-level batters, but shoulder issues last year meant that he turned 21 with just 25 professional innings on his ledger. While Padres staff have seemed optimistic that his work to strengthen the joint has resolved the issues, shoulder injuries in young pitchers are always troubling. He’ll need to work to develop his changeup as a third offering.

Looking Ahead: Lowe’s first order of business is simply getting on the mound every week and showing what he can do with some rhythm. While the Padres were slow to bring him along this spring, Lowe should be given free rein as we get into the summer months. If he performs as many think he can, he should find his way to Fort Wayne in the second half.

13. Jagger Haynes
Position: LHP
Height/Weight: 6-3/195
Age: 21
Bats/Throws: L/L
How Acquired: 5th Round, 2020 Draft

Highlights: Since being drafted in the pandemic-shortened draft in 2020, out of the same North Carolina region as former Padres top prospect MacKenzie Gore, Haynes has struggled to stay on the field. In 2023, he made his debut in Low-A Lake Elsinore, and although he only threw 25.1 innings, he showed flashes of something more, sitting in the mid-90s and flashing a plus slider.

Concerns: Haynes got off to a horrible start in his first three outings in April, as the opposition hit .478 against him in 4.2 innings and gave up 11 earned runs as he struggled mightily with his command. He turned things around significantly in May and is holding opponents to a sub-.200 batting average since, showcasing his resilience and potential for growth. His velocity is down from what we saw last year, but he’s on track for more work than he managed in the first three years of his professional career combined.

Looking Ahead: A 22-year-old 6-foot-3 lefty with a projectable body who already throws in the mid-90s with a solid slider. There is a lot to like. In the future, it will be about improving his consistency, particularly his command, and developing a better changeup – and, most importantly, staying on the mound.

14. Romeo Sanabria
Position: 1B
Height/Weight: 6-3/240
Age: 22
Bats/Throws: L/R
How Acquired: 18th Round, 2022 Draft

Highlights: The Miami native came out of community college as a catcher, but the Padres moved the big-bodied slugger to first base full-time last year, and he responded very well. The left-handed hitter put up a massive .359/.443/.617 line in the Arizona Complex League but wasn’t moved up until late in the season. He picked up where he left off this year, cutting his strikeout rate to open the 2024 season while continuing to hit the ball often and hard. He was among Cal League leaders in most offensive categories when he was promoted to Fort Wayne to open the second half.

Concerns: Despite his remarkable contact rates so far and considerable raw strength, Sanabria doesn’t generate huge bat speed, so he could be tested by velocity as he advances. Additional improvement in his physical conditioning should help that. It would also likely help him with his actions around the first base bag, which is currently the only position he profiles at.

Looking Ahead: Sanabria, who turned 22 in early May, has among the best raw power in the system, but he’ll likely need to show at each stop that he can get to it, especially against high-end velocity. With the trade of Nathan Martorella, there isn’t much depth at first base across the system, so he’ll get a chance to drive his timeline.

15. Bradgley Rodriguez
Position: RHRP
Height/Weight: 6-2/205
Age: 20
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: International Free Agent, 2021

Highlights: Rodriguez’s triple-digit fastball is the best pure stuff in the organization, and his changeup perfectly complements it. A max-effort pitcher is a pure relief prospect. Rodriguez struck out nine in 5.1 innings with the Storm to open the 2024 season after opening eyes playing winter ball in his native Venezuela, where he struck out 21 in 20 innings. That was enough to earn a quick promotion to Fort Wayne.

Concerns: Despite signing before the 2021 season, Rodriguez is making his stateside debut this year after spending the 2022 season on the IL and being held out of competitive action last year. Like many young prospects with big velocity, his control has been spotty so far, but he’s looked to get more consistent with his mechanics to address that.

Looking Ahead: Rodriguez quickly established that he was too good for Cal League hitters and was pushed to High-A Fort Wayne. He’ll be challenged to show he can land his changeup and slider in the zone enough to allow his fastball to play. He’ll be allowed to move quickly through the system before he’s Rule 5 eligible after the 2025 season.

16 Jay Beshears
Position: 3B
Height/Weight: 6-4/215
Age: 21
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: 6th Round, 2023 Draft

Highlights: After a year of big production in his lone season at Duke, after transferring from Northwestern, Beshears struggled in his first taste of professional ball last summer, posting an OPS of just .597 in 29 games for Lake Elsinore. He had no such issues in his return to the Cal League to open the year, hitting .320/.489/.454 with more walks than strikeouts before a quick promotion to High-A just after his 22nd birthday.

Concerns: While the Duke connection yielded some ‘right-handed hitting Graham Pauley’ talk this spring, he hasn’t quite shown the power that Pauley did in the second half of last season. Since his move to the TinCaps, the Padres have been splitting his time between third base and shortstop. Beshears also played the corner outfield in college but has yet to do so as a professional.

Looking Ahead: Beshears has stayed hot in his start with Fort Wayne and will likely remain in the Midwest League in the heart of the TinCaps lineup through the summer. The Padres have sometimes been reticent to move players off the dirt. Still, if Beshears continues to hit, given the lack of organizational depth, it would likely make sense to give him some exposure in the outfield as they have done with Pauley sooner rather than later.

17. J.D. Gonzalez
Position: C
Height/Weight: 6-0/190
Age: 18
Bats/Throws: L/R
How Acquired: 3rd Round, 2023 Draft

Highlights: The backstop missed his entire senior year of high school because of knee surgery. However, the Puerto Rico native had impressed enough on the showcase circuit the previous summer that the Padres called the then-17-year-old with their second pick. He continued rehab work in Peoria all summer before finally getting into action for Carolina in the Puerto Rican Winter League. He was ramped up slowly this spring before joining Lake Elsinore at the end of April.

Concerns: High school catchers are one of the riskiest demographics in the draft. When you factor in that he was one of the youngest draft class members and missed his senior year, Gonzalez is a candidate for even more significant variability. The ability on both sides of the game is there, but he is a long, long way from a finished product.

Looking Ahead: One of the fallouts from the huge number of shortened games in the complex leagues is that position players in the desert aren’t getting nearly as many at-bats as they need. That may have been part of the impetus for Gonzalez to get pushed to Lake Elsinore rather than spend two months in the ACL. Even having already shown off pop times of 1.8 and a plus throwing arm, Gonzalez is still a very raw package on both sides of the game. Even if he spends all of 2025 in the Cal League, he’ll be on a reasonable schedule.

18. Enmanuel Pinales
Position: RHP
Height/Weight: 6-2/195
Age: 23
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: International Free Agent, 2022

Highlights: Pinales didn’t sign until he was already 21 years old and only made his professional debut last season. The righty gave up too many hits in the Arizona Complex League but got much better results after finishing the year with Lake Elsinore. The righty has performed even better for the TinCaps through the first half of 2024, holding opponents to a sub-.200 average despite not having overpowering stuff.

Concerns: As an older pitcher, Pinales has less projection and narrower margins for error than other pitchers at his level. While he has a solid mix of offerings, he does not have one excellent pitch.

Looking Ahead: Pinales has been among Midwest League leaders in ERA and opponents’ batting average all year and has shown the ability to get deep into games. The test for the righty will likely come when he gets to Double-A, which should happen this season. If he continues to get results, he could be an exceptional tale of success for a guy who signed for $10,000.

19. Jackson Wolf
Position: LHP
Height/Weight: 6-7/215
Age: 24
Bats/Throws: L/L
How Acquired: Originally 4th Round, 2021 Draft; reacquired in trade from Pittsburgh Pirates for Kervin Pichardo

Highlights: The 2023 campaign was an eventful one for the lanky lefthander. He struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings in Double-A San Antonio, won his big league debut in a double-header spot start, and was the headliner of a trade nine days later. The Padres reacquired him just after the 2024 campaign began when the Pirates surprisingly designated him for assignment rather than keeping him on the 40-player roster at Triple-A.

Concerns: Wolf’s pitchability is impressive, but his upside is significantly limited by a fastball that tops out at 90 mph. There simply aren’t many big league pitchers whose pure stuff looks like his.

Looking Ahead: In his second option year, Wolf had inconsistent results early in his first taste of Triple-A in 2024 as he looked for a second crack at the big leagues. His unique delivery and release point gives him a puncher’s chance, but his margin for error is relatively thin.

20. Rosman Verdugo
Position: 2B/3B
Height/Weight: 6-0/185
Age: 19
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: 2022 International Free Agent

Highlights: Signed out of the Mexico City Diablos Rojos academy program at the start of the 2022 free agent period, the strong infielder made his professional debut in Arizona later that year rather than in the DSL. While his production was solid, he struck out in 35.4% of his plate appearances. The Padres nonetheless pushed him forward to Lake Elsinore for last season, and he was physically overmatched as one of the youngest players on the circuit. While his overall production was poor, he connected on 31 doubles, showing what might be in there as he matures and improves his approach.

Concerns: While his swing and approach at the plate are solid, he’s not especially loose as an athlete, limiting his upside in the batter’s box and the field. While he’s logged plenty of time at shortstop thus far in his career, his best fit at higher levels, if he can continue to improve his offensive production, is likely third base, possibly second if he can maintain his lateral quickness.

Looking Ahead: He’ll need to continue to cut his strikeout rate and eventually turn more of those doubles into homers to profile for a big league role. He’s still relatively young for the Cal League, even as a returner, so he will have plenty of opportunity to continue to hone his abilities. Defensively, he’s probably not a shortstop in the future, but if he can continue to improve and maintain his lateral quickness, he has a chance to stick at second base, where his bat profiles better than third.