MadFriars Top 20 for 2024

Heading into the 2024 season, expectations for the big league San Diego Padres are down, but the farm system is again in the upper tier of major league baseball. The organization has benefited from performing well at the top of the draft, finding value in the lower rounds, and picking up the top international prospects in two consecutive years.

According to both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America, the Padres have six players among the top 100 prospects in the game: Jackson Merrill, Ethan Salas, Dylan Lesko, Robby Snelling, and Drew Thorpe appear in both national outlets’ rankings. Outfielder Samuel Zavala was included by MLB Pipeline, while Leo De Vries made the list for Baseball America.

Throw in Jairo Iriarte, who we rank among that group, a pair of position players in Jakob Marsee and Graham Pauley who are seen within the organization as close to ready to contribute in the majors, and last year’s top pick Dillon Head, and the system has as much upper-end talent as it has in years past.

Last year, we wrote that the organization’s best players would start in the lower levels of the organization. This his season, we should see a much more balanced distribution. The most exciting place in the system to open the year may be the Double-A San Antonio Missions, whose starting staff could include Snelling, Thorpe, Iriarte, and Ryan Bergert – all of whom are in our top 20.

Our Process: In the offseason, each of MadFriars’ five contributors published our individual Top 30 lists for subscribers. While we had some differentiation at the bottom of our lists, the top 15 were much more consistent than in previous years.

MadFriars Top 20 for 2023:

Graduated: Pedro Avila (18)

Traded: Henry Williams (11) and Jackson Wolf (14)

Retired: Noel Vela (10)

Fell off the List: Jay Groome (8), Garrett Hawkins (12), Joshua Mears (15), Korry Howell (16) and Daniel Montesino (20)

At the end of spring training, we will have a season preview for all four full-season San Diego Padres affiliates.

Top 20 for 2024: (All ages as of minor league opening day)

1) Jackson Merrill
Position: SS/OF
Height/Weight: 6-3/205
Age: 20
Bats/Throws: L/R
How Acquired: First Round 2021 Draft (27th overall)

Team AVG OBP SLG PA K/BB Hits XBH/HR
TinCaps .280 .318 .444 211 37/17 78 24/10
Missions .279 .338 .444 300 25/18 51 20/5

2023 Highlights: While he had a few minor health issues, Merrill more than doubled the number of games he played from 2022 and put up strong numbers as one of the younger players in the Midwest, and then Texas Leagues. His biggest improvement on the offensive side was showing more of the power, particularly to the pull side, that everyone saw glimpses of in his 45-game cameo in Lake Elsinore in 2022. The power increase came while he cut both his strikeout and ground ball rates, positive indicators that there’s another level of production inside the strong-framed lefthanded hitter. Defensively, he has shown he can stay at shortstop and has particularly improved his lateral movements. While he did see action for the first time in his career at a position other than shortstop, just five of his 114 games were in left field, two at second, and one at first base.

Negatives: While Merrill had a solid offensive year, particularly when factoring in his age at each level, he still posted an on-base percentage of just .326 across two levels in 2023. Though his strikeout percentage was only 12.3% in High-A and even lower in San Antonio at 11.8%, his offensive potential is tied to getting on base more consistently. The organization would probably like to see him become more selective earlier in the count to get to more of his developing power.

Projection: Despite all signs that the organization will give him a chance to make the roster out of spring training, Merrill – and the organization – would likely be better served with a veteran outfielder in the big leagues who would allow Merrill to start the year in Triple-A El Paso to add to his lifetime total of 211 plate appearances above Single-A. If he’s back in the minors, look for him to improve his on-base percentage while demonstrating he’s ready to be the Padres’ shortstop of the future if Ha-Seong Kim leaves at the end of 2024.

2) Ethan Salas
Position: C
Height/Weight: 6-2/185
Age: 17
Bats/Throws: L/R
How Acquired: 2023 International Free Agent

Team AVG OBP SLG PA K/BB Hits XBH/HR
Storm .267 .350 .487 220 57/24 51 22/9
TinCaps .200 .243 .229 37 10/2 7 1/0
Missions .179 .303 .214 33 8/4 5 1/0

2023 Highlights: Salas captured everyone’s imagination with a scorching .366/.416/.720 July slash line in the California League after turning 17 on June 1. He demonstrated an excellent idea of the strike zone and a smooth lefthanded swing that already generates plenty of power and loft even as he has room to add significant strength in the coming years. Defensively, he’s even more impressive with fluid receiving and a strong arm behind the plate. The combination of aptitude, ability and projection make him one of the most exciting prospects we’ve ever covered in the organization, though there’s some concern that the organization’s pedal-to-the-metal approach could backfire in terms of having him as ready to contribute as possible when he arrives in the big leagues.

Negatives: After his big July, the Padres made the questionable decision to promote the 17-year-old to Double-A after just a nine game pit stop in High-A Fort Wayne. Not surprisingly, he struggled while more than two years younger than any other player in the Texas League. Defensively, despite playing half of his games at DH, he seemed a little worn down at arguably the most demanding defensive job on the field before a knee injury ended his season early.

Then again, as with everything with Ethan, it’s essential to remember that last year, he would have been a junior in high school if he stayed in his native Florida.

Projection: If we were making decisions for the organization, Salas would have finished 2023 in Lake Elsinore, or maybe gotten a cup of coffee in Fort Wayne at the end of the year, then gone into this season back at High-A. However, the Padres believe Salas has the maturity and the aptitude to handle everything that comes with being in Double-A. He will likely open there, where he’ll work with one of the better starting staffs that San Diego has sent to a single affiliate, so it should be interesting.

3) Dylan Lesko
Position: RHP/Starting Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6-2/205
Age: 20
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: First Round 2022 Draft (15th overall)

Team W-L IP ERA GS K/BB Hits Runs/Earned Runs
ACL 0-1 5.0 10.80 4 9/3 8 6/6
Storm 0-3 16 4.50 5 23/8 13 8/8
TinCaps 1-1 12 4.50 3 20/11 8 6/6

2023 Highlights: Lesko was available to the Padres in the 2022 draft because of Tommy John surgery in his senior year of high school, which delayed his professional debut until last June. Once he got onto the mound in Arizona and then Lake Elsinore, he showed some glimpses of what could help him become a frontline pitcher. Lesko’s riding fastball at the top of the zone sat comfortably in the mid-90s and touched 98 at times, while he continued to show one of the best changeups in the minor leagues, along with a better-than-advertised curve. The former star prep shortstop is also one of the better athletes in the Padres’ pitching corps. He showed an ability to repeat his delivery and is a plus fielder on the mound.

Negatives: As with most pitchers returning from Tommy John, he was inconsistent with his command, and his velocity fluctuated. Still, it was only 33 innings, and after an entire healthy offseason, he could emerge with a breakout season.

Projection: San Diego should return Lesko to Fort Wayne to begin the year, but depending on his spring and his first month in the Midwest League, he could be in Double-A sooner rather than later. Look for Lesko to focus on cutting down his walk rate and the continued development of his curve, as the Padres will significantly expand his innings this summer.

4) Robby Snelling
Position: LHP/Starting Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6-2/210
Age: 20
Bats/Throws: R/L
How Acquired: First Round 2022 Draft (39th overall)

Team W-L IP ERA GS K/BB Hits Runs/Earned Runs
Storm 5-1 51.2 1.57 11 59/13 39 10/9
TinCaps 4-2 34.2 2.34 7 40/11 31 11/9
Missions 2-0 17.1 1.56 4 19/10 12 5/3

2023 Highlights: The high school two-sport star outperformed the expectations of everyone except himself in his first professional season. The Reno area native posted a 1.83 ERA across three levels with 118 strikeouts and just 34 walks allowed in 103.2 innings. Opponents managed just four homers against him on the year. His best attribute might be his ability to take his performance to the next level in high-leverage situations.

At just 19, the Reno native worked with a low- to mid-90s fastball with both a solid curve and a tighter slider that he relied on more as he moved up twice through his first professional season.

Negatives: While it’s hard to ding Snelling for much of anything in his exceptional debut campaign, the organization will challenge him to refine his command in the zone a bit while looking to add a tick or two of velocity as he progresses. After showing real aptitude to improve his changeup in 2023, he’ll look to demonstrate the ability to use it to put away righthanded hitters.

Projection: Snelling should return to Double-A, where he will again be one of the youngest players in the league. Of the four top pitching prospects, he might be the closest to ready to start at Petco Park.

5) Leo De Vries
Position: SS
Height/Weight: 6-1/185
Age: 17
Bats/Throws: B/R
How Acquired: 2024 International Free Agent

Scouting Report: For the second year in a row, the Padres nabbed the consensus top player on the international amateur market. De Vries, who turned 17 this winter, has been on the Padres’ radar since he was 13 because of the switch-hitter’s sweet swing from both sides of the plate and premium athleticism.

Expected to profile physically up the middle on the infield, De Vries has impressed outside observers in his few public appearances over the last several years. He profiles favorably to 2022 top international free agent Roderick Arias because of his more advanced hit tool. However, Arias – who will open this year in Single-A – serves as a reminder that even elite young players have a long distance to cover before reaching the big leagues.

Projection: As with Salas, the expectation is that he should begin the year in the ACL instead of the Dominican Summer League. With the changes to the timing of the Complex Leagues this year, he could wind up in Lake Elsinore by mid-summer.

6) Jairo Iriarte
Position: RHP/Starting Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6-2/211
Age: 22
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: 2018 International Free Agent

Team W-L IP ERA GS K/BB Hits Runs/Earned Runs
TinCaps 3-3 61 3.10 14 77/28 50 22/21
Missions 0-1 29.1 4.30 13 51/17 21 15/14

2023 Highlights: Iriarte has put on significant size since he joined the organization and has the best fastball in the organization, which he can throw at the top of the zone with exceptional carry. Both his slider – which he remade into a sweeper last season – and changeup have made significant strides since his 2022 season in Lake Elsinore, helping the loose-limbed righty to a 29.7% strikeout rate in High-A before he K’ed 40.5% of the hitters he faced in his 29.1 inning cameo in Double-A.

Negatives: Iriarte, who barely topped 100 innings for the first time last year, walked an unsightly 13.5% of the batters he faced in Double-A. He will need to improve control on his fastball and figure out a way to land the slider in the zone on occasion if he is going to reach his lofty ceiling as a starter, but his arsenal is easy to project into the back of a big league bullpen should he struggle to do that.

Projection: With his electric fastball, Iriarte has the stuff to make the squad out of camp in the bullpen. However, keeping him down in the minors to work on his secondary pitches and command as a starter could give him the space to turn into something special as a starter. In the likely event the Padres send him back to San Antonio to start the year, buckle up for what could be a wild ride.

7) Drew Thorpe
Position: RHP/Starting Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6-4/215
Age: 23
Bats/Throws: L/R
How Acquired: Trade from the New York Yankees in exchange for Juan Soto.

Team W-L IP ERA GS K/BB Hits Runs/Earned Runs
Hudson Valley (High-A) 10-2 109 2.81 18 138/33 84 38/34
Somerset (Double-A) 4-0 30.1 1.48 5 44/5 5/5

2023 Highlights: While Michael King was the main target in the Juan Soto trade, the Padres also had Thorpe in their sights from the beginning. After the Yankees drafted him out of Cal Poly in the second round in 2022, Thorpe roared through his first season as a professional, flashing a truly elite changeup and commanding a low-90s fastball to go along with a cutter and developing slider. He was initially recruited out of high school as a two-way player and was considered one of the better athletes in the Yankees system.

Negatives: The question is whether his fastball, which sits in the low 90s even after adding a few miles of velocity on the Yankees’ development program, will be enough of a weapon to keep hitters at the highest level honest. The verdict among national analysts is split, with some arguing the shape is good enough to play while others see it as too hittable. The Padres’ pro scouting department has earned the benefit of the doubt to think Thorpe will make it work.

Projection: San Diego will most likely start Thorpe back in Double-A, where he logged just 30.1 innings last year. That’s the level where hitters may have more ability to lay off his changeup than A-ball hitters, especially as they see him two and three times on the eight-team circuit.

8) Jakob Marsee
Position: CF/OF
Height/Weight: 6 feet/205
Age: 22
Bats/Throws: L/L
How Acquired: Sixth Round 2022 Draft

Team AVG OBP SLG PA K/BB Hits XBH/HR
TinCaps .273 .413 .425 499 82/87 109 32/13
Missions .286 .412 .446 69 11/15 16 3/3
Arizona Fall League .391 .509 .707 118 25/21 36 18/5

2023 Highlights: Marsee went from topping out at number 23 on our individual lists heading into High-A last winter, to being discussed as an outfield option for the big league club this spring. A right fielder at Central Michigan University, Marsee thrived in center as a professional, rarely taking a wrong route and showing an ability to cover a significant amount of ground. One constant with Marsee from college was his ability to get on base and make things happen, with 46 stolen bases in 55 attempts. Where he departed from his college form was in hitting for power, as he collected 16 home runs across two levels, doubling his total production from three years of college. He topped off a strong year by earning MVP honors in the Arizona Fall League, where he dominated in a year when pitching was down across the showcase circuit.

Negatives: Although he was getting on base, Marsee struggled to make hard contact in April (.235) and May (.217) before he got a more aggressive and dialed up another gear offensively over the summer. He hit just .219/.352/.352 in 129 plate appearances against lefties, a line he’ll need to improve to avoid winding up in a platoon situation. The only negative on him defensively is an average arm.

Projection: Marsee put himself on the map this past year but has only played 20 games above High-A. He could use more reps against left-handed pitching, and to refine his approach against the better spin he will see going forward. The full package Marsee brings to the table – strong up-the-middle defense, a strong ability to get on base, and emerging power – is a really interesting combination.

9) Graham Pauley
Position: 3B/2B/LF
Height/Weight: 6-1/205
Age: 23
Bats/Throws: L/R
How Acquired: 13th Round 2022 Draft

Team AVG OBP SLG PA K/BB Hits XBH/HR
Storm .309 .422 .465 276 40/40 71 23/4
TinCaps .300 .358 .629 187 41/13 51 24/16
Missions .321 .375 .556 88 12/7 26 13/3
Arizona Fall League .238 .267 .464 90 18/4 20 9/5

2023 Highlights: A late-round pick out of Duke University, Pauley produced in a brief cameo with the Storm in 2022, hitting .328/.458/.500 in 17 games, but no one could have predicted the type of year that the Georgia native would have last season. After continuing to rake in Lake Elsinore to open the campaign, he made mechanical and approach adjustments just before moving up and demolished the Midwest League with 16 homers in 45 games, though his strikeout rate jumped. When he landed in Double-A in August, he found a good balance in posting a .321/.375/.556 line while striking out just 13.6% of the time.

As with Marsee, Pauley more than doubled his college career home run output in his first professional year, leading the system with 23 round-trippers. Defensively, he saw the most time at third base and some action at second, though neither is a great fit. With his increased offensive profile, he will get more time in left field.

Negatives: Pauley’s ultimate position is still not certain, but if his production at the plate continues, it will open opportunities anywhere on the field.

Projection: As with many of the Padres’ top prospects, Pauley spent most of the year in A-ball. Before the club tries to determine where he might fit in a major league lineup, seeing how he fares against more advanced pitching with better secondary stuff may be the more prudent way to go.

10) Samuel Zavala
Position: OF/CF
Height/Weight: 6-1/180
Age: 19
Bats/Throws: L/L
How Acquired: 2021 International Free Agent

Team AVG OBP SLG PA K/BB Hits XBH/HR
Storm .267 .420 .451 459 121/89 93 36/22
TinCaps .078 .161 .098 56 19/5 4 1/0

2023 Highlights: Zavala put up some serious numbers in the Cal League, blending a 19.4% walk rate and a .184 Isolated Power rate to post an offensive output 40% above the league average as one of the youngest hitters on the circuit. After he put on ten pounds of solid muscle in the winter, he slugged 14 homers in 101 games, while also swiping 20 bases. With improved speed and athleticism, he saw most of his action in center field, where he proved to be a viable option for now.

Negatives: Zavala has a strong knowledge of the strike zone, but his exaggerated leg kick means he can be beaten by good velocity and breaking balls in on his hands. Pitchers in High-A overwhelmed him in a late tour with Fort Wayne, where he struck out in more than a third of his 56 plate appearances. While he showed he could handle center right now, as he fills out he’ll likely profile more as a corner outfielder.

Projection: The dreadful showing in a brief appearance in High-A at the end of the season highlighted concerns about whether his approach will play at higher levels. If he can tone it down even a bit, his combination of zone management and still-improving power will pair with quality corner defense to make him an intriguing right-field option.

11) Adam Mazur
Position: RHP/Starting Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6-2/180
Age: 22
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: Second Round 2022 Draft

Team W-L IP ERA GS K/BB Hits Runs/Earned Runs
TinCaps 4-1 58 2.02 11 47/10 50 15/13
Missions 2-3 38 4.03 7 43/7 47 18/17

2023 Highlights: Mazur has the makings to be a classic four-pitch pitcher. After earning Big 10 Pitcher of the Year honors at the University of Iowa, the Padres made him their second round pick 2022, but opted to keep him out of game competition. In his pro debut with Fort Wayne last year, the lanky righty showed a low-90s fastball that was touching 95 early in the year and flashed strong feel for both his slider and change. Overall, his results in Fort Wayne were outstanding; he had a 2.01 ERA and the fifth-lowest walk rate in the league (minimum 50 innings). While his ERA nearly doubled after his promotion to San Antonio during the summer, his FIP only ticked up slightly at the higher level. After a brief stint in the Missions bullpen, he posted a strong 32:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30.1 innings across his final seven starts of the year.

Negatives: Mazur’s fastball faded down the stretch and, despite a mix of solid offerings, he didn’t show one true out pitch. It’s possible that the curve he shelved while working to develop his changeup early in the year will take a step forward as he goes back to using it more frequently.

Projection: The Minnesota native still has relatively few innings under his belt, so there’s more room for growth than many pitchers his age. A stint in the San Antonio bullpen last year gave him a little breather as he adjusted to a professional workload. However, the organization will want to see his production over 25-plus starts, likely starting back in the Alamo City.

12) Dillon Head
Position: CF/OF
Height/Weight: 6 feet/190
Age: 19
Bats/Throws: L/L
How Acquired: First Round 2023 Draft (#25 overall)

Team AVG OBP SLG PA K/BB Hits XBH/HR
ACL .294 .413 .471 63 9/11 15 6/1
Storm .241 .312 .333 61 10/4 13 3/0

2023 Highlights: Head was the Padres’ top draft pick in 2023, and the lefthanded prep product from Illinois quickly showed he was too advanced for the Arizona Complex League level, slashing .294/.413/.471 in 63 plate appearances before he jumped to Lake Elsinore, where he posted a .645 OPS in 61 plate appearances. While his speed is his best tool, he also showed exceptional strike zone judgment with only 19 strikeouts and 15 walks in 124 plate appearances between the two levels.

Negatives: The then-18-year-old, predictably, saw a drop-off over the final 13 games of the year in a tiny exposure to full-season ball. He totaled only nine extra-base hits on the year, relying more on his speed than loud contact for most of them.

Projection: Head has shown the ability to make consistent contact, and with his speed, he projects as a top-of-the-order hitter capable of playing in center field. The 6-foot-1 athlete has plenty of room to fill out his wiry frame, giving the potential for an interesting hit and power mix while staying in center if he develops ideally physically.

13) Randy Vásquez
Position: RHP/Starting Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6 feet/175 pounds
Age: 25
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: Trade from the New York Yankees in exchange for Juan Soto.

Team W-L IP ERA GS K/BB Hits Runs/Earned Runs
Scranton/WB (AAA) 3-8 80.1 4.59 17 96/40 78 45/41
New York Yankees 2-2 37.1 2.87 5 33/18 30 12/12

2023 Highlights: The other player from the Soto trade who retains rookie eligibility, Vásquez, made his big league debut last season but still has two option years left, providing the organization with some flexibility.

His high-spin curve is his greatest weapon, but an uptick in fastball velocity as he’s worked his way through the upper minors has given him a second pitch that can get advanced hitters out. That helped him record a 26.9% strikeout rate in Triple-A to open the year and earn a promotion to the big leagues. Working in a swing role, he posted a 2.87 ERA, though advanced metrics weren’t nearly so encouraging.

Negatives: Vásquez has one fantastic pitch in a 3100+ RPM curveball that might be one of the deadliest in baseball. While the rest of his pitches all grade out as average offerings, his poor command has meant that his results have lagged. The 25-year-old has put up double-digit walk rates through much of his career, limiting his effectiveness.

Projection: While Vásquez probably makes more sense in the swingman role he filled late last year for New York, he could also be the guy who shuttles between the big leagues and El Paso as a starter until others show they’re ready or necessity drives a move to the bullpen. If he can smooth out his delivery enough to improve his command without losing his curve – a tight, but not impossible, line to walk – he could edge another step forward as a starting option.

14) Ryan Bergert
Position: RHP/Starting Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6-1/210
Age: 24
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: Sixth Round 2021 Draft

Team W-L IP ERA GS K/BB Hits Runs/Earned Runs
TinCaps 5-2 61.2 2.63 12 75/28 45 18/18
Missions 1-2 44 2.86 8 51/18 32 16/14

2023 Highlights: Bergert made a few mechanical tweaks to his delivery during the season, helping him hold his velocity longer. Although he still walked a few too many people, he cut the number of home runs he allowed from 18 in 103.1 innings in 2022 to only four in 105.2 between Fort Wayne and San Antonio last year.

Bergert has a riding fastball – described using current mechanics language as having good induced vertical break – that gets batters to swing under it frequently. A move away from a curve to a sweeper and a lower release on his fastball helped Bergert hit better spots in the zone and drove a significant drop in opponents’ average and home run rates, even after a midseason promotion to San Antonio.

Negatives: He struck out 126 batters in 105.2 innings for a 2.73 ERA, so many things are trending in the right direction. However, Bergert continues to walk too many opponents. A big key for him will be the continued development and increased usage of his sweeper and changeup.

Projection: Working with a fastball that can get up to 97 and coming off back-to-back seasons of at least 100 innings, Bergert should be ready for some big league innings at some point in 2024. If he can take another step forward this year, the 24-year-old can join the group of Jhony Brito, Avila, Matt Waldron, and others as swing options in San Diego.

15) Eguy Rosario
Position: 2B/INF
Height/Weight: 5-9/205
Age: 24
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: 2015 International Free Agent

Team AVG OBP SLG PA K/BB Hits XBH/HR
ACL .714 .750 1.429 8 1/1 5 3/1
Chihuahuas .265 .348 .422 187 39/20 44 15/5
Padres .250 .270 .500 37 12/1 6 4/2

2023 Highlights: Last season was on track to be the Year of Eguy until a broken leg scuttled the first half of the infielder’s season. After a two-game rehab stint in Peoria, Rosario scuffled in a return to El Paso for 43 games before he finally got to the Padres for 37 at-bats late in the year.

Negatives: He’s struck out an alarming 14 times in 43 plate appearances during very brief stints in the big leagues over the last two years, but he’s made more consistent contact through most of his career.  He’s only an emergency option at shortstop, which makes him atypical as a utility option.

Projection: As long as the club already has multiple shortstop-capable options, his thump and speed make him a potential bench contributor this year.

16) Victor Lizarraga
Position: RHP/Starting Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6-3/205
Age: 20
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: 2020 International Free Agent

Team W-L IP ERA GS K/BB Hits Runs/Earned Runs
TinCaps 4-7 94.2 4.09 21 78/34 85 46/43

2023 Highlights: Despite being only 19, Lizarraga profiles more like an older college pitcher, relying on his command and off-speed pitches to be successful against aggressive young hitters. After a dominant year in the Cal League in 2022, he struggled initially at Fort Wayne until he began to find more confidence in his curve and slider. Lizarraga sits in the low 90s and will not blow anyone away with his velocity, but he has an excellent changeup and appears to relish competing in the big moments.

Negatives: A hoped-for velocity increase didn’t come in his age-19 campaign at Fort Wayne, and the rest of his repertoire wasn’t strong enough to keep High-A hitters off his very good changeup. His strikeout rate hovered close to 15% for much of the year as he dealt with lingering effects from early-season illness, but he finished on a strong run of four outings in which he allowed just 17 hits across 23 innings with a 26:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That leaves plenty of room to hope that 2023 will go down as a developmental blip.

Projection: At just 20 years old, Lizarraga is likely to spend much of a second year in High-A. Right now, his changeup is the only offering that is clearly above average. However, there’s some hope that, with mechanical adjustments, he could still add velocity and that the changes he made with his breaking ball in the second half last year will get him to the repertoire he’ll need.

17) Homer Bush Jr.
Position: CF/OF
Height/Weight: 6-3/205
Age: 22
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: Fourth Round 2023 Draft

Team AVG OBP SLG PA K/BB Hits XBH/HR
ACL .409 .509 .614 53 7/7 18 3/2
Storm .247 .369 .341 105 15/12 21 6/1
Missions .429 .448 .464 29 2/1 12 1/0

2023 Highlights: The day he signed, Bush became one of the most dynamic athletes in the system. A fourth-round pick out of Grand Canyon University, the second-generation Padres farmhand has top-of-the-scale speed and a good sense of getting the bat to the ball. After the draft, the club started him at the complex, where his raw talent outclassed opponents, helping him rack up a .520 wOBA fueled in part by an average on balls in play that almost reached .500.

Negatives: The performance over 105 plate appearances in Lake Elsinore showed that Bush’s contact-first approach without much power is a real downside risk. The 22-year-old managed just six extra-base hits, so even with a double-digit walk rate and low strikeout rate, he was barely above league-average offensively.

Projection: Bush had a very impressive debut season and received a lot of well-deserved credit for just how much he improved in over a year. Although he hit in a tiny Double-A exposure, the organization will probably start him in Fort Wayne to begin the year, where he can focus on improving his hard contact rate while still maximizing his small-ball skills, helping him get more out of his plus speed. A TinCaps outfield of Zavala, Bush, and Tyler Robertson would be among the more athletic outfields in the minor leagues.

18) Brandon Valenzuela
Position: C
Height/Weight: 6-2/225
Age: 23
Bats/Throws: B/R
How Acquired: 2017 International Free Agent

Team AVG OBP SLG PA K/BB Hits XBH/HR
TinCaps .279 .372 .456 156 37/17 38 15/4
Missions .181 .287 .255 108 29/13 17 5/1

2023 Highlights: Valenzuela had an excellent first half of the season with the TinCaps, which he credited to being in better condition and healthier. He also made a few mechanical adjustments to be more on-time for velocity, which resulted in the best power numbers of his career with Fort Wayne. After a promotion to San Antonio, nagging injuries derailed him.

When he’s healthy, Valenzuela is one of the better defensive catchers and game managers in San Diego’s system, and the Mexican switch-hitter has a career .366 on-base percentage across five seasons.

Negatives: He may not hit enough to play every day, but he could stick as a backup. He has been unprotected in the last two Rule 5 drafts, so it’s clear that the Padres and other organizations do not believe he is ready for the big leagues, even in a limited role. If he can hold his own offensively in the upper level of the minors, he gives the Padres a quality depth piece behind Luis Campusano.

Projection: With Campusano ahead of him and Salas behind him, Valenzuela could be a natural trade target for any organization approaching the deadline. If healthy, the switch-hitting catcher should be in line for his first taste of the majors by the start of the 2025 campaign.

19) Nathan Martorella
Position: 1B/LF
Height/Weight: 6-1/235
Age: 23
Bats/Throws: L/L
How Acquired: Fifth Round 2022 Draft

Team AVG OBP SLG PA K/BB Hits XBH/HR
TinCaps .259 .371 .450 483 87/73 71 43/16
Missions .236 .313 .382 99 14/9 21 7/3
AFL         .237 .338 .339 59 14/7 14 4/1

2023 Highlights: Martorella is another member of what is turning out to be a strong 2022 draft class. He put up some strong numbers with the TinCaps as one of the better power hitters in the Midwest League, and his 16 home runs led a talented team. He showed a solid eye at the plate with 73 walks against 87 strikeouts in 483 plate appearances.

Negatives: The production downturn in the second half could have been a matter of fatigue as he logged more game time than ever before, but there are also concerning signs that better pitching in the upper minors might be a bit ahead of him. Even though the organization ran him out in left field on occasion last season, Martorella does not profile there going forward. That means the bat is going to have to carry him.

Projection: The 23-year-old should return to San Antonio and would likely be best served by a full season in the Texas League despite the unfavorable environment for left-handed power hitters at Wolff Stadium. The offensive bar for first basemen is very high, so he’ll need to show that the first half in Fort Wayne was more of a baseline for his production level, not the ceiling.

20) Henry Baez
Position: RHP/Starting Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6-3/200
Age: 21
Bats/Throws: R/R
How Acquired: 2020 International Free Agent

Team W-L IP ERA GS K/BB Hits Runs/Earned Runs
Storm 7-3 83.1 3.24 14 85/39 68 39/30
TinCaps 0-0 15 7.20 4 14/7 19 12/12

2023 Highlights: Baez was our top pitching prospect in the ACL in 2022, then, as a 20-year-old, put many things together in Lake Elsinore with a 3.24 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 83.1 innings before a brief cameo in Fort Wayne at the end of the year. More importantly, he improved as the season went on, giving up just two runs over his final 23.2 Cal League innings.

Negatives: Baez can touch 97 mph with his fastball, but as a starter with the Storm, he typically sat in the 92-94 range. He throws a slider and a changeup, with the changeup making considerable progress last year. Like many pitchers his age, command can be an issue. He walked 45 batters in 98.1 innings between his two stops last year. To stick as a starter, he will need to throw more strikes.

Projection: Baez will fly under the radar compared to the guys already ahead of him in the system and the 2023 draftees who will debut this year, but his stuff and mound presence both have the characteristics of a player who could emerge as a future big leaguer over the following season.